基于贝叶斯理论的全球海温异常对500 hPa 温度场的影响分析

颜鹏程; 侯威; 钱忠华; 何文平; 孙建安

doi:10.7498/aps.61.139202

摘要

本文利用经验正交函数(EOF) 将海表温度(SST) 距平场进行分解, 得到一组相互正交的模态构成重构空间, 然后在该空间中展开500 hPa温度场, 进一步借助贝叶斯分析方法定义各个模态对温度场的影响指数, 并研究指数随不同海温分布型(模态) 的变化特征. 结果发现SST场在46月份对500 hPa温度场的影响较大, 且气候发生转变后, 不同海温分布型对温度场的影响不同.

关键词:

In this paper, we break down sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly field by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to obtain a rebuilding space made up of different patterns which are orthogonal to each other, then we unfold 500 hPa temperature field in this space. Furthermore, with the method of Bayesian analysis, we define the impact index of different patterns on 500 hPa air temperature field and research the variation characteristic of index with the change of spatial pattern of SST. It is found that SST field has a great effect on 500 hPa temperature field between April to June. Besides, after the abrupt climate change, different patterns of SST have different effects on temperature field.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
西北师范大学物理与电子工程学院, 兰州 730070;

2.
国家气候中心, 北京 100081;

3.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院, 扬州 225002

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号: 41175067)、全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(批准号: 2012CB955901) 和国家科技支撑计划(批准号: 2009BAC51B04) 资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;

2.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41175067), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901), and the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2009BAC51B04).

参考文献

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[2]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]
[3]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支容 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[4]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]
[5]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]
[6]	Zhang W, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 2657 [张文, 高新全, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 2657
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[13]	Lee T C K, Zwiers F W, Hegerl G C 2005 Journal of Climate 18 2429
[14]	Seung-Ki Min, Andreas Hense 2006 Journal of Climate 19 3237
[15]	Wang H C 2010 Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology (Natural Science Edition) 12 203 (in Chinese) [王洪春 2010 重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版) 12 203]
[16]	Ding Z W, Liu X 2008 Mathematical Theory and Applications 28 28 (in Chinese) [丁卓武, 刘鑫 2008 数学理论与应用 28 28]
[17]	Huang J Y 1990 Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp28-30, pp130-139 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1990 气象统计分析与预报方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第28-30, 130-139页]
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[19]	He X Q, Liu W Q 2001 Applied Regression Analysis (Beijing: Renmin University of China Press) (in Chinese) [何晓群, 刘文卿 2001 应用回归分析 (北京: 中央人民大学出版社)]
[20]	He X Q, Liu W Q 2006 Statistical Research 4 53 (in Chinese) [何晓群, 刘文卿 2006 统计研究 4 53]
[21]	Li Y Q 2001 Plateau Meteorology 20 88-93 (in Chinese) [李跃清 2001 高原气象 20 第88-93页]

施引文献

[1]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]
[2]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]
[3]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支容 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[4]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]
[5]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]
[6]	Zhang W, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 2657 [张文, 高新全, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 2657
[7]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1989 Scientific Sinica B 9 1001 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 丑纪范 1989 中国科学B 9 1001]
[8]	Qian W H 2009 Global Climate System (Peking University Press) [pp165-283 (in Chinese) [钱维宏 2009 全球气候系统 (北京: 北京大学出版社) 第165-283页]
[9]	National Science and Technology Commission 1990 Climate (Science and Technology Literature Press) pp274-278 (in Chinese) [国家科学技术委员会 1990 气候 (北京: 科学技术文献出版社) 第274-278页]
[10]	Harnack R P, Lanzante J R 1984 Monthly Weather Review 12 1626
[11]	Luo M X, Ji L R, Zhang D M, Li J L, You R G 1997 Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 21 552 (in Chinese) [骆美霞, 纪立人, 张道民, 李金龙, 游荣高 1997 大气科学 21 552]
[12]	Wang N C 2003 A concise course of numerical analysis (2nd Ed.) pp13-50 (in Chinese) [王能超 2003 数值分析简明教程 (第二版) (北京: 高等教育出版社) 第13-50页]
[13]	Lee T C K, Zwiers F W, Hegerl G C 2005 Journal of Climate 18 2429
[14]	Seung-Ki Min, Andreas Hense 2006 Journal of Climate 19 3237
[15]	Wang H C 2010 Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology (Natural Science Edition) 12 203 (in Chinese) [王洪春 2010 重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版) 12 203]
[16]	Ding Z W, Liu X 2008 Mathematical Theory and Applications 28 28 (in Chinese) [丁卓武, 刘鑫 2008 数学理论与应用 28 28]
[17]	Huang J Y 1990 Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp28-30, pp130-139 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1990 气象统计分析与预报方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第28-30, 130-139页]
[18]	Kutner M H, Nachtsheim C J, Neter J 1990 Applied Linear Regression Models (4th Ed.) (Beijing: Higher Education Press) pp284-288 (in Chinese) [约翰·内特著, 张勇, 王国明等译 1990 应用线性回归模型 (北京: 高等教育出版社) 第284-288页]
[19]	He X Q, Liu W Q 2001 Applied Regression Analysis (Beijing: Renmin University of China Press) (in Chinese) [何晓群, 刘文卿 2001 应用回归分析 (北京: 中央人民大学出版社)]
[20]	He X Q, Liu W Q 2006 Statistical Research 4 53 (in Chinese) [何晓群, 刘文卿 2006 统计研究 4 53]
[21]	Li Y Q 2001 Plateau Meteorology 20 88-93 (in Chinese) [李跃清 2001 高原气象 20 第88-93页]

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