The trend of seismic activities in China and adjacent regions after Wenchuan earthquake——Research of seismic energy release with “oscillation analogy”

Hu Wei-Jian; Sang Hong; Liu Hui-Juan; Wang Fu-Yun; Li Ping-Lin

doi:10.7498/aps.59.4351

Abstract

According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone, China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions, where earthquakes of Ms≥60 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008 The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy, we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium- and short- term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 1537 a, namely, 1897—2050 Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a, and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity, we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012, furthermore, the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021, and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently, the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050

Keywords:

China and adjacent regions /
yearly seismic energy /
forecast of strong earthquake activity /
oscillation analogy

Authors and contacts

(1)郑州大学物理工程学院,郑州 450001; (2)中国地震局地球物理勘探中心,郑州 450002; (3)中国地震应急搜救中心,北京 100049

References

[1]	［1］Teng J W, Bai D H, Yang H, Yan Y F, Zhang H S, Zhang Y Q, Ruan X M 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1385
[2]	［2］Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, Yao Z X 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1403
[3]	［3］Zhang Z, Wang Y, Chen Y, Houseman G A, Tian X, Wang E, Teng J 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 17310
[4]	［4］Hubbard J, Shaw J H 2009 Nature 458 194
[5]	［5］Guo L Q， Li Y X， Hu X K， Liu X 2009 Chin.J. Geophys. 52 531 (in Chinese) ［郭良迁、李延兴、胡新康、刘峡 2009 地球物理学报 52 531］
[6]	［6］ Wang Y P, Ma J, Li C Y 2007 Seismology and Geology 29 1(in Chinese) ［汪一鹏、马瑾、李传友 2007 地震地質 29 1］
[7]	［7］Xu J R, Zhao Z X, Ishikawa Y 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 770 (in Chinese) ［徐纪人、赵志新、石川有三 2008 地球物理学报 51 770］
[8]	［8］Parsons T, Ji C, Kirby E 2008 Nature 454 509
[9]	［9］Fu Z X, Ding X, Wang X Q 2006 Earthquake 26 35 (in Chinese) ［傅征祥、丁香、王晓青 2006 地震 26 35］
[10]	］Chen X Z 2007 Earthquake 27 41 (in Chinese) ［陈学忠 2007 地震 27 41］
[11]	］Su N Q 2003 Inland Earthquake 17 190 (in Chinese) ［苏乃秦 2003 内陆地震 17 190］
[12]	］Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Xu G L,Fan F T 1979 Seismology and Geology 1 11 (in Chinese) ［邓起东、张裕明、许桂林、范福田 1979 地震地质 1 11］
[13]	］Shi Z L, Huan W L, Lu S D 1982 Sci. China B 12 840（in Chinese）［时振梁、环文林、卢寿德 1982 中国科学B 12 840］
[14]	］Shi Z L, Zhao R G, Wang S Z, Wang J X 1986 World Earthquake Catalog (1900—1980, Ms≥60) (Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House) pp236—269 (in Chinese) ［时振梁、赵荣国、王淑贞、王敬贤 1986 世界地震目录（１９００—１９８０，Ms≥６０） (北京：地图出版社) 第236—269页］
[15]	］Gu G X 1983 China Earthquake Catalog (B.C.1831—1979) (Beijing: Science Press)(in Chinese)［顾功叙 1983 中国地震目录（北京：科学出版社）］
[16]	］Ganse R A, Nelson J B 1988 BC2000—1979 Global Great Earthquake Catalog (Beijing: Seismology Press (in Chinese)) ［甘斯R A、纳尔逊J B 1988 公元前2000年—公元1979年全球重大地震目录(中译本) （北京：地震出版社）］
[17]	］Zhu C Z 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press）pp63—77 (in Chinese) ［朱传镇 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第63—77页］
[18]	］Wang L M 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp114—124 (in Chinese) ［汪良谋 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第114—124页］
[19]	］Lu Z Y 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp34—49 (in Chinese) ［陆忠远 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究（北京:地震出版社）第34—49页］
[20]	］Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)［李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25］
[21]	］Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746
[22]	］Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180
[23]	］Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007物理学报 56 6143］
[24]	］Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) ［李红星、陶春辉 2009 物理学报 58 2836］
[25]	］Du Q Z， Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 物理学报 53 2801 ］
[26]	］Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study（Beijing: Seismology Press） pp1—63 (in Chinese) ［丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页］

Cited By

[1]	［1］Teng J W, Bai D H, Yang H, Yan Y F, Zhang H S, Zhang Y Q, Ruan X M 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1385
[2]	［2］Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, Yao Z X 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1403
[3]	［3］Zhang Z, Wang Y, Chen Y, Houseman G A, Tian X, Wang E, Teng J 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 17310
[4]	［4］Hubbard J, Shaw J H 2009 Nature 458 194
[5]	［5］Guo L Q， Li Y X， Hu X K， Liu X 2009 Chin.J. Geophys. 52 531 (in Chinese) ［郭良迁、李延兴、胡新康、刘峡 2009 地球物理学报 52 531］
[6]	［6］ Wang Y P, Ma J, Li C Y 2007 Seismology and Geology 29 1(in Chinese) ［汪一鹏、马瑾、李传友 2007 地震地質 29 1］
[7]	［7］Xu J R, Zhao Z X, Ishikawa Y 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 770 (in Chinese) ［徐纪人、赵志新、石川有三 2008 地球物理学报 51 770］
[8]	［8］Parsons T, Ji C, Kirby E 2008 Nature 454 509
[9]	［9］Fu Z X, Ding X, Wang X Q 2006 Earthquake 26 35 (in Chinese) ［傅征祥、丁香、王晓青 2006 地震 26 35］
[10]	］Chen X Z 2007 Earthquake 27 41 (in Chinese) ［陈学忠 2007 地震 27 41］
[11]	］Su N Q 2003 Inland Earthquake 17 190 (in Chinese) ［苏乃秦 2003 内陆地震 17 190］
[12]	］Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Xu G L,Fan F T 1979 Seismology and Geology 1 11 (in Chinese) ［邓起东、张裕明、许桂林、范福田 1979 地震地质 1 11］
[13]	］Shi Z L, Huan W L, Lu S D 1982 Sci. China B 12 840（in Chinese）［时振梁、环文林、卢寿德 1982 中国科学B 12 840］
[14]	］Shi Z L, Zhao R G, Wang S Z, Wang J X 1986 World Earthquake Catalog (1900—1980, Ms≥60) (Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House) pp236—269 (in Chinese) ［时振梁、赵荣国、王淑贞、王敬贤 1986 世界地震目录（１９００—１９８０，Ms≥６０） (北京：地图出版社) 第236—269页］
[15]	］Gu G X 1983 China Earthquake Catalog (B.C.1831—1979) (Beijing: Science Press)(in Chinese)［顾功叙 1983 中国地震目录（北京：科学出版社）］
[16]	］Ganse R A, Nelson J B 1988 BC2000—1979 Global Great Earthquake Catalog (Beijing: Seismology Press (in Chinese)) ［甘斯R A、纳尔逊J B 1988 公元前2000年—公元1979年全球重大地震目录(中译本) （北京：地震出版社）］
[17]	］Zhu C Z 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press）pp63—77 (in Chinese) ［朱传镇 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第63—77页］
[18]	］Wang L M 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp114—124 (in Chinese) ［汪良谋 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第114—124页］
[19]	］Lu Z Y 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp34—49 (in Chinese) ［陆忠远 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究（北京:地震出版社）第34—49页］
[20]	］Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)［李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25］
[21]	］Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746
[22]	］Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180
[23]	］Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007物理学报 56 6143］
[24]	］Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) ［李红星、陶春辉 2009 物理学报 58 2836］
[25]	］Du Q Z， Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 物理学报 53 2801 ］
[26]	］Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study（Beijing: Seismology Press） pp1—63 (in Chinese) ［丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页］

[1]	Zhang Hong-Bin, Chen Ling, Zhang Bao-Cheng. Radiation shielding of analog Bañados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black holes. Acta Physica Sinica, 2023, 72(6): 060401. doi: 10.7498/aps.72.20222296
[2]	Gao Fei, Xu Fang-Hua, Li Zheng-Lin, Qin Ji-Xing. Mode coupling and intensity fluctuation of sound propagation over continental slope in presence of internal waves. Acta Physica Sinica, 2022, 71(20): 204301. doi: 10.7498/aps.71.20220634
[3]	Wang Lei, Li Hong-Qi, Xu Xing-Lei, Xu Shi-Min, Wang Ji-Suo. Ordering positive and negative exponential power operators by virtue of special functions and analogy method. Acta Physica Sinica, 2021, 70(4): 040302. doi: 10.7498/aps.70.20201652
[4]	Liao Tian-Jun, Lü Yi-Xiang. Thermodynamic limit and optimal performance prediction of thermophotovoltaic energy conversion devices. Acta Physica Sinica, 2020, 69(5): 057202. doi: 10.7498/aps.69.20191835
[5]	Sheng Chong, Liu Hui, Zhu Shi-Ning. Research progress of analogical gravitation on optical metamaterial chips. Acta Physica Sinica, 2020, 69(15): 157802. doi: 10.7498/aps.69.20200183
[6]	Zhou Da-Fang, Jiang Shi-Qin, Zhao Chen, Peter van Leeuwen. Current source reconstructing and magnetic imaging of cardiac electrical activity during P-wave. Acta Physica Sinica, 2019, 68(13): 138701. doi: 10.7498/aps.68.20190005
[7]	Liu Hang, Yu Yong-Ji, Wang Yu-Heng, Liu He-Yan, Li Lu-Jie, Jin Guang-Yong. Energy conversion of multi-optical parametric oscillation based on time-dependent split-step integration methods in MgO:APLN. Acta Physica Sinica, 2019, 68(24): 244202. doi: 10.7498/aps.68.20190843
[8]	Ge Man-Ling, Wei Meng-Jia, Shi Peng-Fei, Chen Ying, Fu Xiao-Xuan, Guo Bao-Qiang, Zhang Hui-Juan. Simulation on relationship between power/phase stability of low frequency oscillatory potentials and activity of dipole current. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(14): 148701. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.148701
[9]	Lu Kun-Quan, Cao Ze-Xian, Hou Mei-Ying, Jiang Ze-Hui, Shen Rong, Wang Qiang, Sun Gang, Liu Ji-Xing. On the mechanism of earthquake. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(21): 219101. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.219101
[10]	Chen Shi, Wang Hui, Shen Sheng-Qiang, Liang Gang-Tao. The drop oscillation model and the comparison with the numerical simulations. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(20): 204702. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.204702
[11]	Xie Chen, Hu Ming-Lie, Zhang Da-Peng, Chai Lu, Wang Qing-Yue. High energy dissipative soliton mode-locked fiber oscillator based on a multipass cell. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(5): 054203. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.054203
[12]	Liu La-Qun, Liu Da-Gang, Wang Xue-Qiong, Yang Chao, Xia Meng-Zhong, Peng Kai. The numerical simulation of the electronic energy deposition and temperature variation in post-hole convolute of magnetically insulated transmission lines. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(16): 162902. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.162902
[13]	Zhang Han, Guan Yu-Ping. Relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the first-landfall tropical cyclone over mainland of China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(12): 129201. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.129201
[14]	Zhang Han, Guan Yu-Ping. Latitudinal distribution of landing tropical cyclones over mainland China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(16): 169203. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.169203
[15]	Lu Kun-Quan, Hou Mei-Ying, Jiang Ze-Hui, Wang Qiang, Sun Gang, Liu Ji-Xing. To understand earthquake from the granular physics point of viewcauses of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and prediction. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(11): 119103. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.119103
[16]	Feng Guo-Lin, Zhang Lu, Zhang Da-Quan. Analysis of precursors and predictability of PDSI extremes in China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(8): 5896-5903. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.5896
[17]	Feng Yan, An Zhen-Chang, Mao Fei, Sun Han. Analysis of variation in geomagnetic field of Chinese mainland based on comprehensive model CM4. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(12): 8941-8953. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.8941
[18]	HUANG XIANG-YOU. THE CLASSICAL ANALOGY OF UNCERTAINTY RELATION. Acta Physica Sinica, 1996, 45(3): 353-359. doi: 10.7498/aps.45.353
[19]	QI GUO-YING, GUO YA-PING. SEISMIC SPECTRA, AND VARIATIONS IN THE SEISMIC SPECTRA OF MEDIUM-SCALE EARTHQUAKES BEFORE AND AFTER STRONG EARTHQUAKES. Acta Physica Sinica, 1976, 25(6): 527-532. doi: 10.7498/aps.25.527
[20]	FING-CHUAN FENG, PING-CHENG HSU. GRAPHICAL PRE-DETERMINATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF POWER OSCILLATORS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1951, 8(1): 64-72. doi: 10.7498/aps.8.64

Catalog

Vol. 59, Issue 6 - 2010-03-20

Metrics

Abstract views: 7744
PDF Downloads: 1118
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板