Search

Article

x

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

The critical warning research of the mean time series mutations based on Logistic model

Yan Peng-Cheng Hou Wei Hu Jing-Guo

Citation:

The critical warning research of the mean time series mutations based on Logistic model

Yan Peng-Cheng, Hou Wei, Hu Jing-Guo
PDF
Get Citation

(PLEASE TRANSLATE TO ENGLISH

BY GOOGLE TRANSLATE IF NEEDED.)

  • In this paper, we analyze the stability of solution of the nonlinear function of physics, the Logistic function. It is found that the solution has a special character that it can change abruptly from one stable state to another when the initial value and parameters of function are selected. Abrupt change level and abrupt change rate are related to parameters of function, which can be described by defining the abrupt change intensity index. By using the character of solution, we build an ideal time series to imitate climate abrupt change in mean of climate system, investigate what behaviors the recovery rate and recovery force can have when the system approaches to a critical threshold, and to ascertain how it warns the abrupt change of the system early. Besides, we also find that even the system is disturbed by some noise signals, the recovery rate and recovery force also make an early response to the arrival of the abrupt change of system. Finally, the result of testing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index showes that the early warning of the abrupt change appeared in 1973, much more early than the abrupt change of PDO index happening in 1976/1977, which means that the recovery rate and recovery force can be used as the early warning signals of the abrupt change in mean.
    • Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033) and the Global Change Research of the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902).
    [1]

    Thom R 1972 Stability Structural and Morphogenesis (Sichuan: Sichuan Education Press) 73 105 (in Chinese) [雷内· 托姆 1972结构稳定性与形态发生学 (四川: 四川教育出版社) 73 105 ]

    [2]

    Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 4 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 4 482]

    [3]

    Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China MeteorologicalPress) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 北京: 气象出版社 第62-76页]

    [4]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]

    [5]

    Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]

    [6]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]

    [7]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]

    [8]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支容 2008 气象学报 66 892]

    [9]

    He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862]

    [10]

    He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264]

    [11]

    He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 程海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]

    [12]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2011 Int. J. Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.2367

    [13]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 15 601

    [14]

    Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D 2005 Science 299 5615

    [15]

    Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53

    [16]

    Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Letters 9 311

    [17]

    Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Letters 11 450

    [18]

    May R 1976 Nature 261 459

    [19]

    Mamtua N J, Mantua S R, Zhang H Y 1997 Bull. Amet. Meteor. Soc. 78 1069-1080

    [20]

    Gu D J, Wang D X, Li C H 2003 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 19 136 (in Chinese) [谷德军, 王东晓, 李春辉 2003 热带气象学报 19 136]

    [21]

    Gu W, Li C Y 2010 Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences 33 401 (in Chinese) [顾薇, 李崇银 2010 大气科学学报 33 401]

  • [1]

    Thom R 1972 Stability Structural and Morphogenesis (Sichuan: Sichuan Education Press) 73 105 (in Chinese) [雷内· 托姆 1972结构稳定性与形态发生学 (四川: 四川教育出版社) 73 105 ]

    [2]

    Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Scientia Atmospherica Sinica 4 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 4 482]

    [3]

    Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China MeteorologicalPress) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 北京: 气象出版社 第62-76页]

    [4]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]

    [5]

    Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]

    [6]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]

    [7]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]

    [8]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支容 2008 气象学报 66 892]

    [9]

    He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862]

    [10]

    He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264]

    [11]

    He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 程海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]

    [12]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2011 Int. J. Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.2367

    [13]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 15 601

    [14]

    Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D 2005 Science 299 5615

    [15]

    Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53

    [16]

    Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Letters 9 311

    [17]

    Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Letters 11 450

    [18]

    May R 1976 Nature 261 459

    [19]

    Mamtua N J, Mantua S R, Zhang H Y 1997 Bull. Amet. Meteor. Soc. 78 1069-1080

    [20]

    Gu D J, Wang D X, Li C H 2003 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 19 136 (in Chinese) [谷德军, 王东晓, 李春辉 2003 热带气象学报 19 136]

    [21]

    Gu W, Li C Y 2010 Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences 33 401 (in Chinese) [顾薇, 李崇银 2010 大气科学学报 33 401]

  • [1] Sun Bin, Zhao Li-Chen, Liu Jie. Dirac magnetic monopoles potential in the nonlinear double-soliton interference. Acta Physica Sinica, 2023, 72(10): 100501. doi: 10.7498/aps.72.20222416
    [2] Zhang Mei-Mei, Gao Fan, Tu Juan, Wu Yi-Yun, Zhang Dong. Classification of benign and malignant breast masses using entropy from nonlinear ultrasound radiofrequency signal. Acta Physica Sinica, 2021, 70(8): 084302. doi: 10.7498/aps.70.20201919
    [3] Yang Zhen, Zhu Can, Ke Ya-Jiao, He Xiong, Luo Feng, Wang Jian, Wang Jia-Fu, Sun Zhi-Gang. Peltier effect: From linear to nonlinear. Acta Physica Sinica, 2021, 70(10): 108402. doi: 10.7498/aps.70.20201826
    [4] Zhang Pan, Zhao Xue-Dan, Zhang Guo-Hua, Zhang Qi, Sun Qi-Cheng, Hou Zhi-Jian, Dong Jun-Jun. Acoustic detection and nonlinear response of granular materials under vertical vibrations. Acta Physica Sinica, 2016, 65(2): 024501. doi: 10.7498/aps.65.024501
    [5] Zhou Cong, Wang Qing-Liang. One-dimension nonlinear and dispersive seismic wave modeling in solid media. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(23): 239101. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.239101
    [6] Tang Wei, Wang Xiao-Pu, Cao Jing-Jun. Modeling and analysis of piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting system using permanent magnetics. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(24): 240504. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.240504
    [7] Dong Hai-Ming. Electrically-controlled nonlinear terahertz optical properties of graphene. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(23): 237804. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.237804
    [8] Feng Bing-Chen, Fang Sheng, Zhang Li-Guo, Li Hong, Tong Jie-Juan, Li Wen-Qian. A non-linear analysis for gamma-ray spectrum based on compressed sensing. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(11): 112901. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.112901
    [9] Yan Guan-Hua, Yan Peng-Cheng, Hou Wei, Wu Hao. A method of abrupt change process analysis based on Logistic model and its applications. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(7): 079202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.079202
    [10] Wu Qin-Kuan. Variational iteration solution method of soliton for a class of nonlinear disturbed Burgers equation. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(2): 020203. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.020203
    [11] Zhang Jian-Wen, Li Jin-Feng, Wu Run-Heng. Global attractor of strongly damped nonlinearthermoelastic coupled rod system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(7): 070205. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.070205
    [12] Yang Yong-Feng, Wu Ya-Feng, Ren Xing-Min, Qiu Yan. The effect of random noise for empirical mode decomposition of nonlinear signals. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(6): 3778-3784. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.3778
    [13] Lü Jun, Zhao Zheng-Yu, Zhang Yuan-Nong, Zhou Chen. Influence of nonlinearity on focused acoustic field of array in atmosphere. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(12): 8662-8668. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.8662
    [14] Mo Jia-Qi, Zhang Wei-Jiang, Chen Xian-Feng. Variational iteration method for solving a class of strongly nonlinear evolution equations. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(11): 7397-7401. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.7397
    [15] Zou Jian-Long, Ma Xi-Kui. A class of nonlinear phenomena resulting from saturation. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(2): 720-725. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.720
    [16] Zhao Guo-Wei, Wang Zhi-Jiang, Xu Yue-Min, Liang Zhi-Wei, Xu Jie. Numerical simulation of plasma nonlinear phenomena excited by radio-frequency wave using FDTD method. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(9): 5304-5308. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.5304
    [17] Mo Jia-Qi, Zhang Wei-Jiang, He Ming. The solitary wave approximate solution of strongly nonlinear evolution equations. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(4): 1843-1846. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.1843
    [18] Mo Jia-Qi, Zhang Wei-Jiang, Chen Xian-Feng. The homotopic solving method of solitary wave for strong nonlinear evolution equation. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(11): 6169-6172. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.6169
    [19] Tang Chang-Jian, Qian Shang-Jie. . Acta Physica Sinica, 2002, 51(6): 1256-1261. doi: 10.7498/aps.51.1256
    [20] Tan Wen, Wang Yao-Nan, Liu Zhu-Run, Zhou Shao-Wu. . Acta Physica Sinica, 2002, 51(11): 2463-2466. doi: 10.7498/aps.51.2463
Metrics
  • Abstract views:  5775
  • PDF Downloads:  656
  • Cited By: 0
Publishing process
  • Received Date:  14 January 2012
  • Accepted Date:  22 February 2012
  • Published Online:  05 September 2012

/

返回文章
返回