Performance evaluation of Chinese air temperature simulated by Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model on the basis of the long-range correlation

Zhao Shan-Shan; He Wen-Ping

doi:10.7498/aps.63.209201

Abstract

The traditional evaluation of simulation perfomance for numerical model is based on the differences in average, trend, probability density distribution, extreme value, variance and self-correlation between observational data and the simulated data by numerical model. These evaluation methods mainly depend on the comparison of statistical difference between the simulation and observation, but ignore the comparison in the dynamical characteristics of climate system. In view of this, in the present paper we use detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to analyze the scaling characteristics of daily temperature from observational data and the corresponding simulated data by climate model, and investigate whether the long-range correlation of meteorological elements can exist in the simulated data of climate model. If so, we can assess the performance of climate model based on the comparison of scaling index between the observational data and the simulated data. As an example, the performances of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1(m)) model, including simulated daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature, are assessed by using DFA. The results indicate that the long-range correlation characteristics of temperature in China can be simulated by BCC_CSM1.1(m). But the simulation errors are relatively large in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, most West China, North China, and Huanghuai district. Thereinto, and the performance of BCC_CSM1.1(m) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western West China is worst in China.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

Zhao Shan-Shan^{1 2},
He Wen-Ping¹

1.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275074, 41175067), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201106015, GYHY201106016).

References

[1]	Shi Y J, Ren Y L, Wang S G, Shang K Z, Li X, Zhou G L 2012 Plateau Meteorol. 31 1257 (in Chinese ) [石彦君, 任余龙, 王式功, 尚可政, 李旭, 周甘霖 2012 高原气象 31 1257]
[2]	Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 250 (in Chinese) [姚遥, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 250]
[3]	Gao F, Xin X G, Wu T W 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 1165 (in Chinese) [高峰, 辛晓歌, 吴统文 2012 大气科学 36 1165]
[4]	Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5]	Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6]	Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[7]	Bartos I, Jánosi I M 2006 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13 571
[8]	Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球物理学报 50 420]
[9]	Liu S D, Rong P P, Chen J 2000 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 58 111 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 荣平平, 陈炯 2000 气象学报 58 111]
[10]	Cheng J, She Z S, Liang S, Liu S D 2003 J. Nanjing Instit. Meteorol. 26 24 (in Chinese) [陈炯, 佘振苏, 梁爽, 刘式达 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 24]
[11]	Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
[12]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 23 104]
[13]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[14]	Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15]	Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 物理学报 60 109203]
[18]	Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19]	Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20]	Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23]	Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24]	Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25]	Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26]	He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]

Cited By

[1]	Shi Y J, Ren Y L, Wang S G, Shang K Z, Li X, Zhou G L 2012 Plateau Meteorol. 31 1257 (in Chinese ) [石彦君, 任余龙, 王式功, 尚可政, 李旭, 周甘霖 2012 高原气象 31 1257]
[2]	Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 250 (in Chinese) [姚遥, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 250]
[3]	Gao F, Xin X G, Wu T W 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 1165 (in Chinese) [高峰, 辛晓歌, 吴统文 2012 大气科学 36 1165]
[4]	Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5]	Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6]	Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[7]	Bartos I, Jánosi I M 2006 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13 571
[8]	Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球物理学报 50 420]
[9]	Liu S D, Rong P P, Chen J 2000 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 58 111 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 荣平平, 陈炯 2000 气象学报 58 111]
[10]	Cheng J, She Z S, Liang S, Liu S D 2003 J. Nanjing Instit. Meteorol. 26 24 (in Chinese) [陈炯, 佘振苏, 梁爽, 刘式达 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 24]
[11]	Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
[12]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 23 104]
[13]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[14]	Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15]	Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 物理学报 60 109203]
[18]	Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19]	Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20]	Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23]	Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24]	Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25]	Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26]	He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]

[1]	Sun Dong-Yong, Zhang Hong-Bo, Wang Yi-Min. Application of moving cut data-wavelet transformation analysis in dynamic structure mutation testing. Acta Physica Sinica, 2017, 66(7): 079201. doi: 10.7498/aps.66.079201
[2]	Du Wen-Liao, Tao Jian-Feng, Gong Xiao-Yun, Gong Liang, Liu Cheng-Liang. Dual-tree complex wavelet transform based multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis for nonstationary time series. Acta Physica Sinica, 2016, 65(9): 090502. doi: 10.7498/aps.65.090502
[3]	Xia Mao-Peng, Li Jian-Jun, Gao Dong-Yang, Hu You-Bo, Sheng Wen-Yang, Pang Wei-Wei, Zheng Xiao-Bing. Absolute calibration of an analog InSb detector based on multimode spatial correlation of correlated photons. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(24): 240601. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.240601
[4]	Zhao Shan-Shan, He Wen-Ping. Performance evaluation of the simulated daily average temperature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system model. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(4): 049201. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.049201
[5]	Xiong Jie, Chen Shao-Kuan, Wei Wei, Liu Shuang, Guan Wei. Multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis algorithm based identification method of scale-less range for multi-fractal charateristics of traffic flow. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(20): 200504. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.200504
[6]	Sun Dong-Yong, Zhang Hong-Bo, Huang Qiang. Application of moving cut data-rescaled variance analysis in dynamic structure mutation testing. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(20): 209203. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.209203
[7]	Dong Yu-Wei, Cai Shi-Min, Shang Ming-Sheng. Empirical study on scaling of human behaviors in e-commerce. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(2): 028901. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.028901
[8]	Li Guo-Long, Huang Zhuo-Yin, Li Kan, Zhen Hong-Yu, Shen Wei-Dong, Liu Xu. Analysis of the effect of active layer thickness on polymer solar cell performance based on optical and opto-electronic model. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(7): 077207. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.077207
[9]	Cheng Hai-Ying, He Wen-Ping, Zhang Wen, Wu Qiong. Comparison of applications of different filter methods for de-noising detrended fluctuation analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(2): 029203. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.029203
[10]	Wu Jian-Jun, Xu Shang-Yi, Sun Hui-Jun. Detrended fluctuation analysis of time series in mixed traffic flow. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(1): 019502. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.019502
[11]	Deng Bei-Sheng, He Wen-Ping, Cheng Hai-Ying, Wu Qiong, Zhang Wen. A new method of detecting abrupt dynamic change based on rescaled range analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(11): 8264-8271. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.8264
[12]	Wang Qi-Guang, Hou Wei, Zheng Zhi-Hai, Feng Ai-Xia, Deng Bei-Sheng. Long-range correlation and group-occurrence of return intervals of extreme events. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(10): 7491-7497. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.7491
[13]	Yang Jie, Yang Ping, Hou Wei, Zhang Da-Quan. A valid method to compute the segment size in detrended fluctuation analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(12): 8986-8993. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.8986
[14]	He Wen-Ping, Wang Qi-Guang, Wu Qiong, Zhang Wen, Zhang Yong. Comparison of characteristics of moving detrended fluctuation analysis with that of approximate entropy method in detecting abrupt dynamic change. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(4): 2862-2871. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.2862
[15]	Wang Qi-Guang, Hou Wei, Zheng Zhi-Hai, Gao Rong. The long range correlation of East Asia’s atmosphere. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(9): 6640-6650. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.6640
[16]	Feng Guo-Lin, Gong Zhi-Qiang, Hou Wei, Wang Qi-Guang, Zhi Rong. Long-range correlation of extreme events in meterorological field. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(4): 2853-2861. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.2853
[17]	Liu Zhi-Feng, Lai Yuan-Ting, Zhao Gang, Zhang You-Wei, Liu Zheng-Feng, Wang Xiao-Hong. The critical scaling property of random percolation porous media. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(4): 2011-2015. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.2011
[18]	Yang Ping, Hou Wei, Feng Guo-Lin. Determining the threshold of extreme events with detrended fluctuation analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(8): 5333-5342. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.5333
[19]	Wang Qi-Guang, Zhi Rong, Zhang Zeng-Ping. The research on long range correlation of Lorenz system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(8): 5343-5350. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.5343
[20]	SHI HONG-TING, NI JUN, GU BING-LIN. KINETICS OF ORDERING FOR AN ALLOY SYSTEM IN A TWO DIMENSIONAL LATTICE. Acta Physica Sinica, 2001, 50(10): 1970-1978. doi: 10.7498/aps.50.1970

Catalog

Vol. 63, Issue 20 - 2014-10-20

Metrics

Abstract views: 4917
PDF Downloads: 545
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板