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在水平风场切变形变的基础上引入物理量——位势切变形变, 把水平风场的垂直分量和切变形变与广义位温的空间梯度结合起来. 该物理量的二阶扰动被定义为波作用密度, 在局地直角坐标系中推导了能够描述中尺度扰动系统发展演变的波作用方程. 对2009年登陆台风莫拉克引发的暴雨过程进行诊断分析, 结果表明, 台风中心区切变形变向涡度的转化显著, 该转化通过纬向风的经向梯度实现. 纬向风速的经向梯度与广义位温垂直梯度的耦合引起位涡和位势切变形变之间的转化, 以至于位势切变形变和位涡的异常值区分别位于台风环流的外侧和内侧. 波作用密度因能够描述水平扰动风场的垂直切变和切变形变以及凝 结潜热函数扰动梯度而与观测降水联系紧密. 相关统计分析表明, 2009年夏季波作用密度与6 h观测降水存在明显滞后相关性, 对未来6 h降水有一定的指示意义. 另外, 波作用密度通量散度和扰动非地转风位涡是影响波作用密度局地变化的主要物理因素. 基于波作用密度与观测降水的良好相关性, 建立了波作用密度暴雨预报方程. 2009年登陆台风"苏迪罗", "天鹅", "莫拉菲"和"巨爵"的暴雨预报个例分析和长时间序列的ETS评分计算表明, 波作用密度对台风暴雨具有较好的预报效果, 其预报降水能力略优于美国全球预报系统(GFS)的直接降水预报.
[1] Chen L S, Meng Z Y 2001 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 25 420 (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 孟智勇 2001 大气科学 25 420]
[2] Sun J H, Zhao S X 2000 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24 223 (in Chinese) [孙建华, 赵思雄 2000 大气科学 24 223]
[3] Tao S Y 1980 China Heavy Rainfall (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [陶诗言 1980 中国之暴雨 (北京: 科学出版社) ]
[4] Qiu Y Y 1997 Meteorological Monthly 23 3 (in Chinese) [仇永炎 1997 气象 23 3]
[5] Chen J K, Ding Z Y 2000 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 11 271 (in Chinese) [陈久康, 丁治英 2000 应用气象学报 11 271]
[6] Zhang X Q, Ding Z Y, Wang Y 2001 Meteorological Monthly 27 3 (in Chinese) [张兴强, 丁治英, 王焱 2001 气象 27 3]
[7] Zhu H Y, Chen L S, Xu X D 2000 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24 669 (in Chinese) [朱洪岩, 陈联寿, 徐祥德 2000 大气科学 24 669]
[8] Rogers R, Chen S Y, Tenerelli J, Willoughby H 1998 Monthly Weather Review 131 1577
[9] Chen L S, Xu X D, Luo Z X 2002 Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Dynamics (Beijing: Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 徐祥德, 罗哲贤 2002 热带气旋动力学引论 (北京: 气象出版社)
[10] Lin Y L, Chiao S, Wang T A, Kaplan M L, Weglarz R P 2001 Weather and Forecasting 16 633
[11] Dong M Y, Chen L S, Zheng P Q, Pan J S 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 495 (in Chinese) [董美莹, 陈联寿, 郑沛群, 潘劲松 2009 热带气象学报 25 495]
[12] Chen Z M, Yang K Q, Wu H Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4362 (in Chinese) [陈忠明, 杨康权, 伍红雨 2009 物理学报 58 4362]
[13] Edmon H J, Hoskins B J, Mcintyre M E 1980 J. Atmos. Sci. 37 2600
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[15] Gao S T, Ran L K 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 08119
[16] Huang F, Lou S Y, Gao Y 2009 Chin. Phys. B 18 4622
[17] Huang R H 1983 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7 393 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉 1983 大气科学 7 393]
[18] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[19] Ran L K, John P B 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 1138
[20] Petterssen S 1956 Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Vol. 1) (New York: McGraw-Hill)
[21] Yoshio K (Translated by Tian C S) 1984 Introduction of atmospheric dynamics (Beijing: Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [约斯特.K著 田春生译 1984 大气动力学入门 (北京: 气象出版社)]
[22] Liu S K, Liu S D 1999 Atmospheric Dynamics (Beijing: Peking University Press) (in Chinese) [刘适瓜, 刘适达 1999 大气动力学 (北京: 北京大学出版社)]
[23] Zhang Y J 1983 Acta Meteor. Sin. 41 219 (in Chinese) [张元箴 1983 气象学报 41 219]
[24] Deng Q H 1986 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 1 165 (in Chinese) [邓秋华 1986 应用气象学报 1 165]
[25] Martin J E 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 2000
[26] Wang X B, Wu R S 2000 Acta Meteor. Sin. 58 403 (in Chinese) [王兴宝, 伍荣生 2000 气象学报 58 403]
[27] Han G R, He J H, Fan Y F, Deng H J 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 468 (in Chinese) [韩桂荣, 何金海, 樊永富, 邓华军 2005 气象学报 63 468]
[28] Li D, Coluccis J 2005 J. Atmos. Sci. 62 4043
[29] Liu G, Liu S D, Liu F, Liu S K 2007 Acta Sci. Nat. Univ. Pekin. 43 17 (in Chinese) [刘刚, 刘式达, 刘峰, 刘式适 2007 北京大学学报 (自然科学版) 43 17]
[30] Gao S T, Yang S, Xue M, Cui C 2008 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25 11
[31] Ran L K, Yang W X, Hong Y C 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 15 167
[32] Gao S T, Wang X R, Zhou Y S 2004 Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 12113
[33] Tao Z Y, Zhou X G, Zheng Y G 2012 Meteorological Monthly 38 28 (in Chinese) [陶祖钰, 周小刚, 郑永光 2012 气象 38 28]
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[1] Chen L S, Meng Z Y 2001 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 25 420 (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 孟智勇 2001 大气科学 25 420]
[2] Sun J H, Zhao S X 2000 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24 223 (in Chinese) [孙建华, 赵思雄 2000 大气科学 24 223]
[3] Tao S Y 1980 China Heavy Rainfall (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [陶诗言 1980 中国之暴雨 (北京: 科学出版社) ]
[4] Qiu Y Y 1997 Meteorological Monthly 23 3 (in Chinese) [仇永炎 1997 气象 23 3]
[5] Chen J K, Ding Z Y 2000 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 11 271 (in Chinese) [陈久康, 丁治英 2000 应用气象学报 11 271]
[6] Zhang X Q, Ding Z Y, Wang Y 2001 Meteorological Monthly 27 3 (in Chinese) [张兴强, 丁治英, 王焱 2001 气象 27 3]
[7] Zhu H Y, Chen L S, Xu X D 2000 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24 669 (in Chinese) [朱洪岩, 陈联寿, 徐祥德 2000 大气科学 24 669]
[8] Rogers R, Chen S Y, Tenerelli J, Willoughby H 1998 Monthly Weather Review 131 1577
[9] Chen L S, Xu X D, Luo Z X 2002 Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Dynamics (Beijing: Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 徐祥德, 罗哲贤 2002 热带气旋动力学引论 (北京: 气象出版社)
[10] Lin Y L, Chiao S, Wang T A, Kaplan M L, Weglarz R P 2001 Weather and Forecasting 16 633
[11] Dong M Y, Chen L S, Zheng P Q, Pan J S 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 495 (in Chinese) [董美莹, 陈联寿, 郑沛群, 潘劲松 2009 热带气象学报 25 495]
[12] Chen Z M, Yang K Q, Wu H Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4362 (in Chinese) [陈忠明, 杨康权, 伍红雨 2009 物理学报 58 4362]
[13] Edmon H J, Hoskins B J, Mcintyre M E 1980 J. Atmos. Sci. 37 2600
[14] Dai X G, Wang P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1770
[15] Gao S T, Ran L K 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 08119
[16] Huang F, Lou S Y, Gao Y 2009 Chin. Phys. B 18 4622
[17] Huang R H 1983 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7 393 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉 1983 大气科学 7 393]
[18] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[19] Ran L K, John P B 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 1138
[20] Petterssen S 1956 Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Vol. 1) (New York: McGraw-Hill)
[21] Yoshio K (Translated by Tian C S) 1984 Introduction of atmospheric dynamics (Beijing: Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [约斯特.K著 田春生译 1984 大气动力学入门 (北京: 气象出版社)]
[22] Liu S K, Liu S D 1999 Atmospheric Dynamics (Beijing: Peking University Press) (in Chinese) [刘适瓜, 刘适达 1999 大气动力学 (北京: 北京大学出版社)]
[23] Zhang Y J 1983 Acta Meteor. Sin. 41 219 (in Chinese) [张元箴 1983 气象学报 41 219]
[24] Deng Q H 1986 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 1 165 (in Chinese) [邓秋华 1986 应用气象学报 1 165]
[25] Martin J E 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 2000
[26] Wang X B, Wu R S 2000 Acta Meteor. Sin. 58 403 (in Chinese) [王兴宝, 伍荣生 2000 气象学报 58 403]
[27] Han G R, He J H, Fan Y F, Deng H J 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 468 (in Chinese) [韩桂荣, 何金海, 樊永富, 邓华军 2005 气象学报 63 468]
[28] Li D, Coluccis J 2005 J. Atmos. Sci. 62 4043
[29] Liu G, Liu S D, Liu F, Liu S K 2007 Acta Sci. Nat. Univ. Pekin. 43 17 (in Chinese) [刘刚, 刘式达, 刘峰, 刘式适 2007 北京大学学报 (自然科学版) 43 17]
[30] Gao S T, Yang S, Xue M, Cui C 2008 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25 11
[31] Ran L K, Yang W X, Hong Y C 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 15 167
[32] Gao S T, Wang X R, Zhou Y S 2004 Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 12113
[33] Tao Z Y, Zhou X G, Zheng Y G 2012 Meteorological Monthly 38 28 (in Chinese) [陶祖钰, 周小刚, 郑永光 2012 气象 38 28]
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