短期风速时间序列混沌特性分析及预测

田中大; 李树江; 王艳红; 高宪文

doi:10.7498/aps.64.030506

摘要

针对短期风速时间序列的预测问题进行了研究. 首先通过0-1混沌测试法确定短期风速时间序列具有混沌特性. 采用相空间重构技术, 利用C-C算法确定延迟时间, G-P 算法确定嵌入维数. 然后提出一种参数在线修正的最小二乘支持向量机预测模型, 采用改进的粒子群算法进行预测模型中参数的优化. 最后通过仿真对比实验表明提出的预测方法在预测精度、预测误差、预测效果方面都要优于其他常见的预测方法, 证明该预测方法是有效的.

关键词:

短期风速 /
时间序列 /
混沌 /
预测

作者及机构信息

1.
沈阳工业大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110870;

2.
东北大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110819

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(批准号: 61034005)资助的课题.

参考文献

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施引文献

[1]	Xiu C B, Liu X T, Zhang X, Yu T T 2013 Power System Protection and Control 41 14 (in Chinese) [修春波, 刘新婷, 张欣, 于婷婷 2013 电力系统保护与控制 41 14]
[2]	Yang X Y, Sun B J, Zhang X F, Li L X 2012 Proc. the CSEE 32 35 (in Chinese) [杨锡运, 孙宝君, 张新房, 李利霞 2012 中国电机工程学报 32 35]
[3]	Ma L, Benoudjit N 2011 Appl. Energ. 88 2463
[4]	Ma L, Luan S Y, Jiang C W, Liu H L, Zhang Y 2009 Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 13 915
[5]	Pelikán E, Eben K, Resler J, Juru P, Krc P, Brabec M, Brabec T, Musilek P 2010 9th Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p45
[6]	Cuo L, Zhang Y X, Wang Q C 2013 J. Climate 26 85
[7]	Erdem E, Shi J 2011 Appl. Energ. 88 1405
[8]	Jiang J L, Lin G M 2008 Control Theory Appl. 25 374 (in Chinese) [蒋金良, 林广明 2008 控制理论与应用 25 374]
[9]	Liu H, Tian H Q, Li Y F 2012 Appl. Energ. 98 415
[10]	Li H J, Liu Y N, Wei Z N, Li X L, Cheung K W, Sun Y H, Sun G Q 2013 Electr. Power Autom. Equip. 33 28 (in Chinese) [李彗杰, 刘亚男, 卫志农, 李晓露, Kwok W Cheung, 孙永辉, 孙国强 2013 电力自动化设备 33 28]
[11]	Wang Y, Wu D L, Guo C X, Wu Q H, Qian W Z, Yang J 2010 IEEE PES General Meeting (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1
[12]	Li X, Wang X, Zheng Y H, Li L X, Zhou L D, Sheng X K 2014 International Conference on Renewable Energy and Environmental Technology (Zurich-Durnten: Trans Tech) p1825
[13]	Zeng J, Zhang H 2011 Acta Energiae Solaris Sin. 32 296 (in Chinese) [曾杰, 张华 2011 太阳能学报 32 296]
[14]	Louka P, Galanis G, Siebert N, Kariniotakis G, Katsafados P, Pytharoulis I, Kallos G 2008 J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 96 2348
[15]	Liu J B, Ding T 2012 Acta Energiae Solaris Sin. 33 1131 (in Chinese) [刘进宝, 丁涛 2012 太阳能学报 33 1131]
[16]	Fourati F, Chtourou M 2007 Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 15 1016
[17]	Xiao H F, Ding T 2011 Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Informatics, Cybernetics,Computer Engineering (Heidelberg: Springer) p479
[18]	Soman S S, Zareipour H, Malik O, Mandal P 2010 North American Power Symposium 2010 (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1
[19]	Sheng Z 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 219401 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2012 物理学报 61 219401]
[20]	Tahat A, Marti J, Khwaldeh A, Tahat K 2014 Chin. Phys. 23 046101
[21]	Li H C, Zhao J S 2005 Chin. Phys. Lett. 22 2776
[22]	Tang Z J, Ren F, Peng T, Wang W B 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 050505 (in Chinese) [唐舟进, 任峰, 彭涛, 王文博 2014 物理学报 63 050505]
[23]	Wu X D, Wang Y N, Liu W T, Zhu Z Y 2011 Chin. Phys. 20 069201
[24]	Gottald G A, Melbourne I 2009 SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 8 129
[25]	Gottald G A, Melbourne I 2009 Nonlinearity 22 1367
[26]	Kim H S, Eykholt R, Salas J D 1999 Physica D 127 48
[27]	Zhang H B, Sun X D, He Y L 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 040505 (in Chinese) [张洪宾, 孙小端, 贺玉龙 2014 物理学报 63 040505]
[28]	Grassberger P, Procaccia I 1983 Physica D 9 189
[29]	Wolf A, Swift J B, Swinney H L, Vastano J A 1985 Physica D 16 285
[30]	Suykens J A K, Vandevalle J 1999 Neural Process. Lett. 9 293
[31]	Kennedy J, Eberhart R 1995 Proceedings of the 1995 IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1942
[32]	Regis R G 2014 J. Comput. Sci. 5 12
[33]	Dong Z S, Zhang X Y, Zeng J C 2013 Trans. Can. Soc. Mech. Eng. 37 1189
[34]	Letting L K, Munda J L, Hamam Y 2012 Solar Energ. 86 1689

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短期风速时间序列混沌特性分析及预测

摘要

作者及机构信息

1.
沈阳工业大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110870;

2.
东北大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110819

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短期风速时间序列混沌特性分析及预测

English Abstract

Chaotic characteristics analysis and prediction for short-term wind speed time series

1.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China;

2.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China

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短期风速时间序列混沌特性分析及预测

摘要

作者及机构信息

1. 沈阳工业大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110870; 2. 东北大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110819

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短期风速时间序列混沌特性分析及预测

English Abstract

Chaotic characteristics analysis and prediction for short-term wind speed time series

1. College of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China; 2. College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China

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1.
沈阳工业大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110870;

2.
东北大学信息科学与工程学院, 沈阳 110819

1.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China;

2.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China