-
根据非线性局部Lyapunov向量方法和增长模繁殖方法，选取Lorenz63模型和Lorenz96模型的不同状态为例，对集合预报与单一预报的预报技巧开展了对比研究.结果表明：与单一预报比较，集合预报的均方根误差和型异常相关有明显改善，随预报时间推移，改善效果越显著，且集合平均优于单一预报的实验个例数逐渐增多.就概率分布（f）而言，单一预报状态的f与真实状态基本一致，不随时间变化；而集合平均预报状态的f则随时间呈现出值域变窄、峰值变大的特点.表明随预报时间的延长，单一预报状态为混沌吸引子上的随机状态，而集合平均预报状态为吸引子子集上的随机状态，这可能是集合平均误差小于单一预报的原因.
-
关键词:
- 非线性局部Lyapunov向量 /
- 集合预报 /
- 单一预报 /
- Lorenz模型
[1] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2] Chou J F 1990 New Advances of Atmospheric Dynamic (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University Press) p214 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1990 大气动力学的新进展(兰州: 兰州大学出版社) 第214页]
[3] Li J P, Chou J 1996 Chin. Sci. Bull. 41 587
[4] Epstein E S 1969 Tellus 21 739
[5] Leith C E 1974 Mon. Wea. Rev. 102 409
[6] Fritsch J M, Hilliker J, Ross J 2000 Wea. Forecasting 15 571
[7] Visloscky R L, Fritsch J M 1995 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76 1157
[8] Hoffman R N, Kalnay E 1983 Tellus 35A 100
[9] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1993 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 74 2317
[10] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 3297
[11] Molteni F, Palmer T N 1993 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119 269
[12] Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, Petroliagis T 1996 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122 73
[13] Buizza R 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 99
[14] Houtekamer P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, Ritchie H, Mitchell H L 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 124 1225
[15] Houtekamer P L, Mitchell H L 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 796
[16] Mu M, Jiang Z N 2008 Chin. Sci. Bull. 53 2062
[17] Duan W S, Mu M 2009 Sci. China Ser. D: Earth Sci. 52 883
[18] Evensen G 2003 Ocean Dyn. 53 343
[19] Wang X, and Bishop C 2003 J. Atmos. Sci. 60 1140
[20] Feng J, Ding R Q, Liu D Q, Li J P 2014 J. Atmos. Sci. 71 3554
[21] Feng J, Ding R Q, Li J P, Liu D Q 2016 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33 1036
[22] Ding R Q, Li J P, Li B S 2017 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34 1027
[23] Anderson J L 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 2969
[24] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[25] Bowler N E 2006 Tellus 58A 538
[26] Li Z C, Chen D H 2002 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 13 1 (in Chinese) [李泽椿, 陈德辉 2002 应用气象学报 13 1]
[27] He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese) [何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 969]
[28] Ma J H, Zhu Y J, Wang P X, Duan M J 2011 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 34 370 (in Chinese) [麻巨慧, 朱跃建, 王盘兴, 段明铿 2011 大气科学学报 34 370]
[29] Tan N, Chen J, Tian H 2013 Meteor. Mon. 39 543 (in Chinese) [谭宁, 陈静, 田华 2013 气象 39 543]
[30] Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 物理学报 61 199203]
[31] Zhang H B, Chen J, Zhi X F, Long K J, Wang Y N 2014 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 37 276 (in Chinese) [张涵斌, 陈静, 智协飞, 龙柯吉, 王亚男 2014 大气科学学报 37 276]
[32] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteor. Sin. 67 241 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009 气象学报 67 241]
[33] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteor. Sin. 67 343 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009 气象学报 67 343]
[34] Ding R Q, Li J P, Ha K J 2008 J. Geophys. Res. 113 D24112
[35] Li J P, Ding R Q 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev. 139 3265
[36] Lorenz E N, Emanuel K A 1998 J. Atmos. Sci. 55 399
[37] Lorenz E N 1995 Seminar on Predictability Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, September 4-8, 1995 p1
[38] Buizza R, Houtekamer P L, Toth Z, Pellerin G, Wei M, Zhu Y 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev. 133 1076
[39] Houtekamer P L, Derome J 1994 Mon. Wea. Rev. 122 2179
[40] Zhuang Z R, Xue J S, Li X L 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 69 620 (in Chinese) [庄照荣, 薛纪善, 李兴良 2011 气象学报 69 620]
[41] Eckmann J P, Ruelle D 1985 Rev. Mod. Phys. 57 617
-
[1] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2] Chou J F 1990 New Advances of Atmospheric Dynamic (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University Press) p214 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1990 大气动力学的新进展(兰州: 兰州大学出版社) 第214页]
[3] Li J P, Chou J 1996 Chin. Sci. Bull. 41 587
[4] Epstein E S 1969 Tellus 21 739
[5] Leith C E 1974 Mon. Wea. Rev. 102 409
[6] Fritsch J M, Hilliker J, Ross J 2000 Wea. Forecasting 15 571
[7] Visloscky R L, Fritsch J M 1995 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76 1157
[8] Hoffman R N, Kalnay E 1983 Tellus 35A 100
[9] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1993 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 74 2317
[10] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 3297
[11] Molteni F, Palmer T N 1993 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119 269
[12] Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, Petroliagis T 1996 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122 73
[13] Buizza R 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 99
[14] Houtekamer P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, Ritchie H, Mitchell H L 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 124 1225
[15] Houtekamer P L, Mitchell H L 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 796
[16] Mu M, Jiang Z N 2008 Chin. Sci. Bull. 53 2062
[17] Duan W S, Mu M 2009 Sci. China Ser. D: Earth Sci. 52 883
[18] Evensen G 2003 Ocean Dyn. 53 343
[19] Wang X, and Bishop C 2003 J. Atmos. Sci. 60 1140
[20] Feng J, Ding R Q, Liu D Q, Li J P 2014 J. Atmos. Sci. 71 3554
[21] Feng J, Ding R Q, Li J P, Liu D Q 2016 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33 1036
[22] Ding R Q, Li J P, Li B S 2017 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34 1027
[23] Anderson J L 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 2969
[24] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[25] Bowler N E 2006 Tellus 58A 538
[26] Li Z C, Chen D H 2002 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 13 1 (in Chinese) [李泽椿, 陈德辉 2002 应用气象学报 13 1]
[27] He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese) [何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 969]
[28] Ma J H, Zhu Y J, Wang P X, Duan M J 2011 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 34 370 (in Chinese) [麻巨慧, 朱跃建, 王盘兴, 段明铿 2011 大气科学学报 34 370]
[29] Tan N, Chen J, Tian H 2013 Meteor. Mon. 39 543 (in Chinese) [谭宁, 陈静, 田华 2013 气象 39 543]
[30] Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 物理学报 61 199203]
[31] Zhang H B, Chen J, Zhi X F, Long K J, Wang Y N 2014 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 37 276 (in Chinese) [张涵斌, 陈静, 智协飞, 龙柯吉, 王亚男 2014 大气科学学报 37 276]
[32] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteor. Sin. 67 241 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009 气象学报 67 241]
[33] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteor. Sin. 67 343 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009 气象学报 67 343]
[34] Ding R Q, Li J P, Ha K J 2008 J. Geophys. Res. 113 D24112
[35] Li J P, Ding R Q 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev. 139 3265
[36] Lorenz E N, Emanuel K A 1998 J. Atmos. Sci. 55 399
[37] Lorenz E N 1995 Seminar on Predictability Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, September 4-8, 1995 p1
[38] Buizza R, Houtekamer P L, Toth Z, Pellerin G, Wei M, Zhu Y 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev. 133 1076
[39] Houtekamer P L, Derome J 1994 Mon. Wea. Rev. 122 2179
[40] Zhuang Z R, Xue J S, Li X L 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 69 620 (in Chinese) [庄照荣, 薛纪善, 李兴良 2011 气象学报 69 620]
[41] Eckmann J P, Ruelle D 1985 Rev. Mod. Phys. 57 617
| 引用本文: |
|
| Citation: |
|
计量
- 文章访问数: 1489
- PDF下载量: 122
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
