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Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection

Ran Ling-Kun Zhou Yu-Shu Yang Wen-Xia

Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection

Ran Ling-Kun, Zhou Yu-Shu, Yang Wen-Xia
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  • For the case of severe convection occurring in the southern region of North China on July 8, 2009, the three dynamical factors, namely, vertical component of convective vorticity vector, moist thermodynamic advection parameter and wave-activity density are diagnosed. The result shows that the anomalous-value regions of dynamical factors are located mainly in middle and lower troposphere over the strong precipitation area. Since the dynamical factors can effectively describe the synthetical characteristics of strong convective system, such as vertical shear of horizontal wind, advection of potential temperature, vorticity perturbation and baroclinicity of moist atmosphere, they correspond to the observation of 6-h accumulative rainfall in horizontal distribution patterns. Using the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasting dataset of U.S. NCEP/NCAR 0.5-Degree GFS, the dynamical factors are calculated to analyze their indications of precipitation forecasting during a longer period. The results show that during June 2 – Oct 1, 2009, the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasted dynamical factors each have an indication of strong precipitation. The moist thermodynamic advection parameter suggests that the precipitation is best among the three dynamical factors.
    • Funds:
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    Sun M S, Wang X M, Luo Y, Xu H G, Yi Z A 1996 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 7 336 (in Chinese) [孙明生、汪细明、罗 阳、徐华刚、易志安 1996 应用气象学报 7 336]

    [2]

    Yao J Q,Dai J H,Yao Z Q 2005 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 16 746 (in Chinese) [姚建群、戴建华、姚祖庆 2005 应用气象学报 16 746]

    [3]

    Qi L B,Chen C H,Liu Q J 2006 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 64 112 (in Chinese) [漆粱波、陈春红、刘强军 2006 气象学报 64 112]

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    Feng G L,Dong W J,Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413

    [5]

    Xu W H,Ni Y Q 2009 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 20 267 (in Chinese) [徐文慧、倪允琪 2009 应用气象学报 20 267]

    [6]

    Qi X X,Zheng Y G 2009 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 20 286 (in Chinese) [祁秀香、郑永光 2009 应用气象学报 20 286]

    [7]

    Li Z N,Li T F 2000 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 11 304 (in Chinese) [李志楠、李廷福 2000 应用气象学报 11 304]

    [8]

    Du B Y,Guan L,Yao Z Q,Yuan Z H 2000 Journal of Nanjing Institude of Meteorology 23 242 (in Chinese) [杜秉玉、官 莉、姚祖庆、袁招洪 2000 南京气象学院学报 23 242]

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    Yuan M Y,Li Z C,Zhang X L 2010 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 68 125 (in Chinese) [袁美英、李泽春、张小玲 2010 气象学报 68 125]

    [10]

    Shi W Z,Cui C G,Shen W,Mao Y W 2006 Metoeorological Science and Technology 34 124 [施望之、崔春光、甚 伟、毛以伟 2006 气象科技 34 124]

    [11]

    Li Y D,Gao S T,Liu J W 2004 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 15 10 (in Chinese) [李耀东、高守亭、刘建文 2004 应用气象学报 15 10]

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    He L F,Chen T,Zhou Q L,Li Z C 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 655 (in Chinese) [何立富、陈 涛、周庆亮、李泽椿 2007 应用气象学报 18 655]

    [13]

    Qian C H, Zhang J Y,Ying D M,Lin J 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 460 (in Chinese) [钱传海、张金艳、应冬梅、林 建 2007 应用气象学报 18 460]

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    Xie J B,Lin L X,Yan W S,Liang Q Q,Liu Y 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 321 (in Chinese) [谢建标、林良勋、颜文胜、粱巧倩、刘燕 2007 应用气象学报 18 321]

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    Bi B G, Liu Y W, Li Z C 2005 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 29 814 (in Chinese) [毕宝贵、刘月巍、李泽椿 2005 大气科学 29 814]

    [16]

    Ran L K,Chu Y L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 8094 (in Chinese) [冉令坤、楚艳丽 2009 物理学报 58 8094]

    [17]

    Wu R S, Tan Z M 1989 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 47 436 (in Chinese) [伍荣生、谈哲敏1989 气象学报 47 436]

    [18]

    Yang Y K, Liu Y L, Wan Z S 1994 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 52 379 (in Chinese) [杨越奎、刘玉玲、万振拴 1994 气象学报 52 379]

    [19]

    Wu B J, Xu C H, Liu Y Y 1996 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 7 108 (in Chinese) [吴宝俊、许晨海、刘延英 1996 应用气象学报 7 108]

    [20]

    Li Y H, Shou S W 1999 Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 22 95 (in Chinese) [李耀辉、寿绍文1999 南京气象学院学报 22 95]

    [21]

    Lu H J, Gao S T 2003 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 61 684 (in Chinese) [陆慧娟、高守亭2003 气象学报 61 684]

    [22]

    Zhou Y S, Ran L K 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 1366 (in Chinese) [周玉淑、冉令坤 2010 物理学报59 1366]

    [23]

    Wu G X, Cai Y P, Tang X J 1995 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 53 387 (in Chinese) [吴国雄、蔡雅萍、唐晓箐 1995 气象学报 53 387]

    [24]

    Gao S T, Lei T, Zhou Y S, Dong M 2002 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 13 662 (in Chinese) [高守亭、雷 霆、周玉淑、董 敏 2002 应用气象学报 13 662]

    [25]

    Chen Z M, Gao W L, Min W B, He G B 2006 Plateau Meteorology 25 983 (in Chinese) [陈忠明、高文良、闵文彬、何光碧 2006 高原气象 25 983]

    [26]

    Yue C J, Shou Y X, Yao X P 2005 Plateau Meteorology 24 450 (in Chinese) [岳彩军、寿亦萱、姚秀萍 2005 高原气象 24 450]

    [27]

    Cao J,Gao S T,Zhou Y S 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 2600 (in Chinese) [曹 洁、高守亭、周玉淑 2008 物理学报 57 2600]

    [28]

    Gao S, Ping F, Li X 2004 J. Geophys. Res.109 D14106

    [29]

    Cui X P 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2304

    [30]

    Ran L K,Yang W X,Chu Y L 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 079201

    [31]

    Ran L K,John P B 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 1138

    [32]

    Li Y D, Liu J W, Gao S T 2005 Meteorological Science and Technology 33 7 (in Chinese) [李耀东、刘健文、高守亭 2005 气象科技 33 7]

    [33]

    Gao S T,Yang S,Xue M,Cui C G 2008 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 25 11

    [34]

    Gao S, Wang X, Zhou Y 2004 Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L12113

  • [1]

    Sun M S, Wang X M, Luo Y, Xu H G, Yi Z A 1996 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 7 336 (in Chinese) [孙明生、汪细明、罗 阳、徐华刚、易志安 1996 应用气象学报 7 336]

    [2]

    Yao J Q,Dai J H,Yao Z Q 2005 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 16 746 (in Chinese) [姚建群、戴建华、姚祖庆 2005 应用气象学报 16 746]

    [3]

    Qi L B,Chen C H,Liu Q J 2006 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 64 112 (in Chinese) [漆粱波、陈春红、刘强军 2006 气象学报 64 112]

    [4]

    Feng G L,Dong W J,Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413

    [5]

    Xu W H,Ni Y Q 2009 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 20 267 (in Chinese) [徐文慧、倪允琪 2009 应用气象学报 20 267]

    [6]

    Qi X X,Zheng Y G 2009 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 20 286 (in Chinese) [祁秀香、郑永光 2009 应用气象学报 20 286]

    [7]

    Li Z N,Li T F 2000 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 11 304 (in Chinese) [李志楠、李廷福 2000 应用气象学报 11 304]

    [8]

    Du B Y,Guan L,Yao Z Q,Yuan Z H 2000 Journal of Nanjing Institude of Meteorology 23 242 (in Chinese) [杜秉玉、官 莉、姚祖庆、袁招洪 2000 南京气象学院学报 23 242]

    [9]

    Yuan M Y,Li Z C,Zhang X L 2010 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 68 125 (in Chinese) [袁美英、李泽春、张小玲 2010 气象学报 68 125]

    [10]

    Shi W Z,Cui C G,Shen W,Mao Y W 2006 Metoeorological Science and Technology 34 124 [施望之、崔春光、甚 伟、毛以伟 2006 气象科技 34 124]

    [11]

    Li Y D,Gao S T,Liu J W 2004 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 15 10 (in Chinese) [李耀东、高守亭、刘建文 2004 应用气象学报 15 10]

    [12]

    He L F,Chen T,Zhou Q L,Li Z C 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 655 (in Chinese) [何立富、陈 涛、周庆亮、李泽椿 2007 应用气象学报 18 655]

    [13]

    Qian C H, Zhang J Y,Ying D M,Lin J 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 460 (in Chinese) [钱传海、张金艳、应冬梅、林 建 2007 应用气象学报 18 460]

    [14]

    Xie J B,Lin L X,Yan W S,Liang Q Q,Liu Y 2007 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 18 321 (in Chinese) [谢建标、林良勋、颜文胜、粱巧倩、刘燕 2007 应用气象学报 18 321]

    [15]

    Bi B G, Liu Y W, Li Z C 2005 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 29 814 (in Chinese) [毕宝贵、刘月巍、李泽椿 2005 大气科学 29 814]

    [16]

    Ran L K,Chu Y L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 8094 (in Chinese) [冉令坤、楚艳丽 2009 物理学报 58 8094]

    [17]

    Wu R S, Tan Z M 1989 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 47 436 (in Chinese) [伍荣生、谈哲敏1989 气象学报 47 436]

    [18]

    Yang Y K, Liu Y L, Wan Z S 1994 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 52 379 (in Chinese) [杨越奎、刘玉玲、万振拴 1994 气象学报 52 379]

    [19]

    Wu B J, Xu C H, Liu Y Y 1996 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 7 108 (in Chinese) [吴宝俊、许晨海、刘延英 1996 应用气象学报 7 108]

    [20]

    Li Y H, Shou S W 1999 Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 22 95 (in Chinese) [李耀辉、寿绍文1999 南京气象学院学报 22 95]

    [21]

    Lu H J, Gao S T 2003 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 61 684 (in Chinese) [陆慧娟、高守亭2003 气象学报 61 684]

    [22]

    Zhou Y S, Ran L K 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 1366 (in Chinese) [周玉淑、冉令坤 2010 物理学报59 1366]

    [23]

    Wu G X, Cai Y P, Tang X J 1995 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 53 387 (in Chinese) [吴国雄、蔡雅萍、唐晓箐 1995 气象学报 53 387]

    [24]

    Gao S T, Lei T, Zhou Y S, Dong M 2002 Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology 13 662 (in Chinese) [高守亭、雷 霆、周玉淑、董 敏 2002 应用气象学报 13 662]

    [25]

    Chen Z M, Gao W L, Min W B, He G B 2006 Plateau Meteorology 25 983 (in Chinese) [陈忠明、高文良、闵文彬、何光碧 2006 高原气象 25 983]

    [26]

    Yue C J, Shou Y X, Yao X P 2005 Plateau Meteorology 24 450 (in Chinese) [岳彩军、寿亦萱、姚秀萍 2005 高原气象 24 450]

    [27]

    Cao J,Gao S T,Zhou Y S 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 2600 (in Chinese) [曹 洁、高守亭、周玉淑 2008 物理学报 57 2600]

    [28]

    Gao S, Ping F, Li X 2004 J. Geophys. Res.109 D14106

    [29]

    Cui X P 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2304

    [30]

    Ran L K,Yang W X,Chu Y L 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 079201

    [31]

    Ran L K,John P B 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 1138

    [32]

    Li Y D, Liu J W, Gao S T 2005 Meteorological Science and Technology 33 7 (in Chinese) [李耀东、刘健文、高守亭 2005 气象科技 33 7]

    [33]

    Gao S T,Yang S,Xue M,Cui C G 2008 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 25 11

    [34]

    Gao S, Wang X, Zhou Y 2004 Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L12113

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  • Received Date:  05 December 2010
  • Accepted Date:  03 January 2011
  • Published Online:  15 September 2011

Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection

  • 1. (1)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China; (2)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment, Shijiazhuang 050021,China

Abstract: For the case of severe convection occurring in the southern region of North China on July 8, 2009, the three dynamical factors, namely, vertical component of convective vorticity vector, moist thermodynamic advection parameter and wave-activity density are diagnosed. The result shows that the anomalous-value regions of dynamical factors are located mainly in middle and lower troposphere over the strong precipitation area. Since the dynamical factors can effectively describe the synthetical characteristics of strong convective system, such as vertical shear of horizontal wind, advection of potential temperature, vorticity perturbation and baroclinicity of moist atmosphere, they correspond to the observation of 6-h accumulative rainfall in horizontal distribution patterns. Using the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasting dataset of U.S. NCEP/NCAR 0.5-Degree GFS, the dynamical factors are calculated to analyze their indications of precipitation forecasting during a longer period. The results show that during June 2 – Oct 1, 2009, the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasted dynamical factors each have an indication of strong precipitation. The moist thermodynamic advection parameter suggests that the precipitation is best among the three dynamical factors.

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