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Long-range correlation and group-occurrence of return intervals of extreme events

Wang Qi-Guang Hou Wei Zheng Zhi-Hai Feng Ai-Xia Deng Bei-Sheng

Long-range correlation and group-occurrence of return intervals of extreme events

Wang Qi-Guang, Hou Wei, Zheng Zhi-Hai, Feng Ai-Xia, Deng Bei-Sheng
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  • Received Date:  16 September 2009
  • Accepted Date:  14 December 2009
  • Published Online:  05 May 2010

Long-range correlation and group-occurrence of return intervals of extreme events

  • 1. (1)College of Atmospheric Scicences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; (2)College of Atmospheric Scicences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia of theInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China, Labora; (3)Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia of theInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China, Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Admin

Abstract: This paper studies the long range correlation of the return intervals of extreme events using the method of percent threshold. In view of return intervals of the extreme events, the long range-correlations of return intervals are studied by simulated time series when the extreme events happened. It is found that the constructed extreme event time series also have the characteristics of long-range correlation if the original time series have one. Meanwhile, the scaling exponents of the two time series are very close, it is very different from the return intervals of stochastic series. The probability density function of time series with long-range correlation has significant difference from the stochastic time series. It was found that there is a group-occurrence phenomenon in the return time series with long-range correlation, so a so-called group occurrence index is defined and computed, the stability of the index is also studied. The results show that the reason of the group occurrence of extreme events series is attributed to the long-range correlation of time series.

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