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Extremely low temperature and its composite index based on stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis

Hou Wei Zhang Da-Quan Qian Zhong-Hua Feng Guo-Lin

Extremely low temperature and its composite index based on stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis

Hou Wei, Zhang Da-Quan, Qian Zhong-Hua, Feng Guo-Lin
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  • By combining the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method with surrogate data method, and using the heuristic segmentation algorithm as well as Chi-Square statistics, we develop a new method to determine the threshold of extreme events, e.g. stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis(S-DFA) method. By using the S-DFA method, we obtain the thresholds of extremely low temperature events from 1961 to 2006 in China and analyze their spatiao temporal characteristics of distribution. We also validate the effectiveness of the S-DFA method through extreme event detection using the temperature series. By defining the composite index of extremely low temperature events from the angle of predictability, this composite index is integrated with the information about the frequency and the strength of the extremely low temperature events, with considering the characteristic of regional climate system. Based on the composite index, we divide the extremely low temperature events during 19612006 in China into four different zones according to their own rank. The composite index of extremely low temperature tends to be katabatic on the whole, Before the the early 80's in the 20th century, the composite index changed according to two distinct 10-year quasi-periods, and after that the composite index was in a downward trend and was well below the average. Until after the mid-90's in the 20th century, it rose to about average value once again.
    • Funds:
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    Zhai P M,Pan X H 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58(supplement) 1(in Chinese) [翟盘茂、 潘晓华 2003 地理学报 58(增刊) 1]

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    Cai M, Ding Y G, Jiang Z H 2007 Plateau Meteorology 26 309 (in Chinese) [蔡 敏、 丁裕国、 江志红 2007 高原气象 26 309]

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    Wang Z F, Qian Y F, Lin H J 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 113 (in Chinese) [王志福、 钱永甫、 林惠娟 2008 高原气象 27 113]

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    Yang J H, Jiang Z H 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 331 (in Chinese) [杨金虎、 江志红 2008 高原气象 27 331]

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    Liu L H, Zhai P M, Zheng Z G 2010 Plateau Meteorology 29 403 (in Chinese) [刘莉红、翟 盘茂、 郑祖光 2010 高原气象 29 403]

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    Zhang S Y, Song Y L 2004 Plateau Meteorology 59 83 (in Chinese)[张尚印、 宋艳玲 2004地理学报 59 83]

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    He W P, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2009 Non. Proc. Geophys. 15 601

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    Ausloos M 2006 Physica A 285 48

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    Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333(in Chinese)[杨 萍、 侯 威、 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5333]

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    Kugiumtzis D 2006 Phys. Rev. E 62 25

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    Gong D Y, Wang S W 1999 Acta Geographica Sinica 54 125 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、 王绍武 1999 地理学报 54 125]

    [72]

    Ju J H, Ren J Z, Lv J M 2004 Plateau Meteorology 23 429 (in Chinese)[琚建华、 任菊章、 吕俊梅 2004 高原气象 23 429]

    [73]
    [74]
    [75]

    Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Wang S W 2002 Plateau Meteorology 21 8 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、 朱锦红、 王绍武 2002 高原气象 21 8]

    [76]
    [77]

    Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Act. Geo. Sin. 58 559(in Chinese)[龚道溢、 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]

    [78]

    Kapur J N, Sahoo P K, Wong A K. 1985 CVGIP 29 273

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  • [1]

    Xiong K G, Yang J, Wang S Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2009 Acta Phys.Sin. 58 2843 (in Chinese) [熊开国、 杨 杰、 万仕全、 封国林、 胡经国 2009 物理学报 58 2843 ]

    [2]
    [3]

    Feng G L, Dong WJ, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Metho-ds on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Observational Data (Beijing: MetrologicalPress) p84 (in Chinese) [封国林、 董文杰、 龚志强、 侯 威、 万仕全、 支 蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社)]

    [4]
    [5]

    Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、 杨 杰、 王启光、 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]

    [6]

    Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groisman P Y 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 417

    [7]
    [8]
    [9]

    Render S, Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114

    [10]

    Zhai P M,Pan X H 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58(supplement) 1(in Chinese) [翟盘茂、 潘晓华 2003 地理学报 58(增刊) 1]

    [11]
    [12]
    [13]

    Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全、 张 璐、 杨 杰、 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 655]

    [14]

    Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨 杰、 侯 威、 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

    [15]
    [16]

    Wan S Q, Gu C H, Kang J P 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 676 (in Chinese) [万仕全、 顾承华、 康建鹏 2010 物理学报 59 676]

    [17]
    [18]
    [19]

    Zhang L, Zhang D Q, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 5896 (in Chinese)[张 璐、 章大全、 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 5896]

    [20]
    [21]

    Cai M, Ding Y G, Jiang Z H 2007 Plateau Meteorology 26 309 (in Chinese) [蔡 敏、 丁裕国、 江志红 2007 高原气象 26 309]

    [22]

    Wang Z F, Qian Y F, Lin H J 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 113 (in Chinese) [王志福、 钱永甫、 林惠娟 2008 高原气象 27 113]

    [23]
    [24]

    Yang J H, Jiang Z H 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 331 (in Chinese) [杨金虎、 江志红 2008 高原气象 27 331]

    [25]
    [26]
    [27]

    Liu L H, Zhai P M, Zheng Z G 2010 Plateau Meteorology 29 403 (in Chinese) [刘莉红、翟 盘茂、 郑祖光 2010 高原气象 29 403]

    [28]
    [29]

    Cheng B Y, Ding Y G, Wang F 2003 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 27 920 (in Chinese) [程炳岩、 丁裕国、 汪 方 2003大气科学 27 920]

    [30]
    [31]

    Zhang S Y, Song Y L 2004 Plateau Meteorology 59 83 (in Chinese)[张尚印、 宋艳玲 2004地理学报 59 83]

    [32]
    [33]

    Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685

    [34]
    [35]

    He W P, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2009 Non. Proc. Geophys. 15 601

    [36]

    Janosi I M,Janecsko B,Kondor I 1999 Physica A 269 111

    [37]
    [38]
    [39]

    Ausloos M 2006 Physica A 285 48

    [40]
    [41]

    Fraedrich K 2002 Stoch. Dynam. 2 403

    [42]
    [43]

    Lux T, Marehesi M 1999 Nature 397 498

    [44]
    [45]

    Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333(in Chinese)[杨 萍、 侯 威、 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5333]

    [46]

    Theiler J, Linsay P S 1993 M Rubin Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past (Addison-Wesley, Reading Mass. Press) p429

    [47]
    [48]

    Timmer J 1998 Phys. Rev. E 58 5153

    [49]
    [50]
    [51]

    Theiler J, Eubank S, Longtin A 1992 Physica D 58 77

    [52]
    [53]

    Kugiumtzis D 2006 Phys. Rev. E 62 25

    [54]

    Timmer J 2006 Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 2647

    [55]
    [56]

    Stam C J, Mpijn J P, Pritchard W S 1998 Physica D 112 361

    [57]
    [58]
    [59]

    Bernaola G P 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 168

    [60]
    [61]

    Oliver J L, Bernaola G P, Carpena P, Romn R R 2001 Gene 276 47

    [62]

    Chernoff H, Lehmann E L 1954 The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 25 579

    [63]
    [64]

    Plackett R L 1993 International Statistical Review 51 59

    [65]
    [66]

    Greenwood P E, Nikulin M S 1996 Wiley, New York. ISBN 047155779X

    [67]
    [68]
    [69]

    Wallace J M,Gutzler D S 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 784

    [70]
    [71]

    Gong D Y, Wang S W 1999 Acta Geographica Sinica 54 125 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、 王绍武 1999 地理学报 54 125]

    [72]

    Ju J H, Ren J Z, Lv J M 2004 Plateau Meteorology 23 429 (in Chinese)[琚建华、 任菊章、 吕俊梅 2004 高原气象 23 429]

    [73]
    [74]
    [75]

    Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Wang S W 2002 Plateau Meteorology 21 8 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、 朱锦红、 王绍武 2002 高原气象 21 8]

    [76]
    [77]

    Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Act. Geo. Sin. 58 559(in Chinese)[龚道溢、 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]

    [78]

    Kapur J N, Sahoo P K, Wong A K. 1985 CVGIP 29 273

    [79]
    [80]

    Wong A K C, Sahoo P K. 1989 IEEE Trans. SMC 19 866

    [81]
    [82]
    [83]

    Pal N R, Pal S K 1991 IEEE Trans. SMC 21 1260

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Publishing process
  • Received Date:  24 November 2010
  • Accepted Date:  07 January 2011
  • Published Online:  15 October 2011

Extremely low temperature and its composite index based on stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis

  • 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
  • 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperature East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
  • 3. College of Atmospheric and Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
  • 4. College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China

Abstract: By combining the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method with surrogate data method, and using the heuristic segmentation algorithm as well as Chi-Square statistics, we develop a new method to determine the threshold of extreme events, e.g. stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis(S-DFA) method. By using the S-DFA method, we obtain the thresholds of extremely low temperature events from 1961 to 2006 in China and analyze their spatiao temporal characteristics of distribution. We also validate the effectiveness of the S-DFA method through extreme event detection using the temperature series. By defining the composite index of extremely low temperature events from the angle of predictability, this composite index is integrated with the information about the frequency and the strength of the extremely low temperature events, with considering the characteristic of regional climate system. Based on the composite index, we divide the extremely low temperature events during 19612006 in China into four different zones according to their own rank. The composite index of extremely low temperature tends to be katabatic on the whole, Before the the early 80's in the 20th century, the composite index changed according to two distinct 10-year quasi-periods, and after that the composite index was in a downward trend and was well below the average. Until after the mid-90's in the 20th century, it rose to about average value once again.

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