The preliminary research about the precursory signals of abrupt climate change based on critical slowing down phenomenon

Wu Hao; Hou Wei; Yan Peng-Cheng; Feng Guo-Lin

doi:10.7498/aps.61.209202

Abstract

In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).

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Cited By

[1]	Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2]	Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumber R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3]	Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4]	Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[6]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]
[7]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]
[8]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]
[9]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]
[10]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]
[11]	He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862 ]
[12]	He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264]
[13]	He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]
[14]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[15]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[16]	Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[17]	Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311
[18]	Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450
[19]	Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]
[20]	Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球物理学报 54 1817]
[21]	Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]
[22]	Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[23]	Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[24]	Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]
[25]	Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[26]	Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 物理学报 61 069201]
[27]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]
[28]	Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 物理学报 61 129202]

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Vol. 61, Issue 20 - 2012-10-20

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