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中国物理学会期刊

Lorenz系统的可预报性

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.55.969

On the predictability of the Lorenz system

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.55.969
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  • 定义一个动态窗口,以Lorenz模型为预报方程,通过对落入动态窗口中的粒子数和平均预报X分量随积分时间演化规律的分析,从另一个角度初步研究了Lorenz系统的可预报性问题,并讨论了高斯白噪声对系统可预报性的影响.结果表明,落入动态窗口中的粒子数在一定程度上反映了系统的可预报性,处于不同区域的初值集合预报时限各不相同,且不同区域内的初值对于小扰动的敏感程度不一样;对于不同区域内的初值集合,高斯白噪声对系统的可预报时限的影响各不相同.

     

    Regarding Lorenz model as the forecast equation,this paper investigates the evolution of the number of particles falling into the predefined dynamic window and the average forecast weight X of the Lorenz system. Then we research preliminarily the predictability of the Lorenz system from another point of views, and the influence of the Gaussian white noises on the Lorenz system. The results show that the evolution of the number reflects the predictability of the Lorenz system to a certain extent. For initial value sets in different areas, there are different predictabilities of the Lorenz system, and we find that there are different influences on the Lorenz system from the Gaussian white noises.

     

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