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中国物理学会期刊

基于去趋势波动分析方法确定极端事件阈值

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.57.5333

Determining the threshold of extreme events with detrended fluctuation analysis

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.57.5333
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  • 极端事件或者极值事件脱离了自身的正常演化状态,是系统演化的极端状态或系统受到外界扰动而导致的异常状态.去趋势波动分析法得到的指数是衡量系统在某一时间尺度内演化的长程相关性的参数,系统的长程相关性不受极端事件的影响或影响很小.基于这一思想,提出了利用去趋势波动分析法确定极端事件的阈值方法,并验证了该方法的有效性.使用该方法对北京极端高温事件、极端低温事件和极端降水事件进行了分析和讨论,确定北京1951—2004年极端高温、极端低温事件和极端降水事件的阈值.50余年来,北京极端高温和低温事件在20世纪70年代

     

    When the dynamic system is in the extreme states, or it is affected by an intensive disturbance, we will get an extreme event. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) measures the long-term correlation of a system, so the extreme events has no effect on systems long-term correlation. Based on this idea, we determined the threshold of extreme events with detrended fluctuation analysis and the results testify its effectiveness. By this method, we analyzed the exreme events in Beijing for the temperature and rain. The results show that before the metaphase of the 1970s, the frequency and inensity of the extreme temperature events is mitigatory, and from 1970s to 1990s, there were very few extreme events. But from the metaphase of the 1990s to now, the extreme temperature events are frequent. The extreme low temperature event has a downtrend from the 1950s to now and never happened after 1978s. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitations are periodic. The frequency and intensity were high in the metaphase of 1950s and 1960s, and were low in the remaining period. The transition occurred in the 1970s.

     

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