搜索

x
中国物理学会期刊

基于矩阵理论的全球温度资料的尺度性研究

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.58.2113

Scale analysis of global temperature based on correlation matrix theory

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.58.2113
PDF
导出引用
  • 采用1948—2005年NCEP/NCAR全球温度资料构建温度关联矩阵,研究表明:为了滤除关联“噪声”,采用信度为001的统计检验是比较合适的.对日温度序列做step=5d,10d,…的滑动平均继而构建关联矩阵发现:365—730d可能是温度场时间尺度上的一个转折点;全球平均关联系数Cglobal的总体变化趋势是随step的增加而增大,但趋势逐渐变缓;相关系数绝对值大于03的正负强关联点对数也随之增加;位于赤道东太平洋海域的正关联中心(区域Ⅰ)(1625°W—775°E,75°N—125°S)和位于北太平洋海域的负关联中心(区域Ⅱ)(1575°W—325°E,275°—475°N )是值得重点关注的两个区域,二者之间存在较强的负相关;取长度为10 a滑动窗口研究Cglobal随时间的演变特征发现,Cglobal在1981—1987a之间发生了明显的跃变,并且这一跃变可能是年代际尺度上的行为;区域Ⅰ和Ⅱ对这一跃变也有清晰的反映,区域Ⅱ的跃变略滞后于区域Ⅰ;与此同时北太平洋海域关联系数的最小值点随时间演变还出现了明显的“位移”.

     

    A temperature correlation matrix is constructed by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis temperature data of 1948—2005, and the 99% confidence test is used to filter out correlation ‘noise'. We smooth the temperature data with step=5 d,10 d,… and construct correlation matrixes, and find that 365—730 d maybe a turning of time scale of temperature. Global average correlation coefficient Cglobal increases along with step size, but the rate is slower and slower. The positive correlation center(1625°W—775°E,75°N—125°S)(Area Ⅰ) and the negative correlation center(1575°W—325°E,275°—475°N)(Area Ⅱ) are the two areas we concern with, there is strong negative correlation between them. With the help of a 10a slipping window, we find that those 10a Cglobal had an abrupt change between 1981—1987a, and so did Area Ⅰ and Ⅱ. The points of strongest negative correlation on the North Pacific Ocean have been changing from 1948 to 2005.

     

    目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回