The occurrence of record breaking temperature events （RBTE） became more and more frequent under the background of global warming. What is the probability that the current temperature record will be broken in the next five years? In this study, answers are provided by given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature, and the relationship between the probability of RBTE of China and the global warming is explored by comparative analysis of the probability of RBTE in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of RBTE is influenced by global warming and the autocorrelation. This study quantitatively estimates the relationship between the probability of RBTE and global warming, which can deepen our knowledge about the in-creasing frequency and amplitude of RBTE under the background of global warming.