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中国物理学会期刊

评估新型冠状病毒地区防控效果的一种近似方法

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.69.20200441

Approximate method to evaluate the regional control efficacy of COVID-19

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.69.20200441
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  • 我们观察到地区累计确诊的病例数目和武汉封城前流入的人口总数高度相关, 且本地第三代感染者占比很小. 基于此, 提出了一种考虑输入病例和地区人口效应的定量化评估新型冠状病毒地区防控效果的近似方法, 并将其用于评估武汉流出人口前50的城市防控的成效. 防控效果最显著的10 个城市依次是石家庄、洛阳、恩施、周口、厦门、贵阳、咸宁、安庆、信阳、南宁.

     

    The cumulative number of local confirmed cases was highly correlated with the total inflow population from Wuhan before the city closure, and the proportion of third-generation infections in a local region is tiny. Accordingly, we proposed an approximate method to quantitatively evaluate the regional control efficacy of COVID that takes into account effects of both imported cases and regional population. We applied this method to evaluate the control efficacy of the top-50 cities with maximum inflow population from Wuhan. The 10 cities with the most significant control efficacy are Shijiazhuang, Luoyang, Enshi, Zhoukou, Xiamen, Guiyang, Xianning, Anqing, Xinyang, and Nanning.

     

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