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中国物理学会期刊

基于因果检验的非线性系统的预测试验

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.71.20211871

Experimental study on prediction of nonlinear system based on causality test

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.71.20211871
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  • 非线性、非平稳系统的预测是一个具有重要科学意义的研究课题. 最近一些工作已将收敛交叉映射算法(convergent cross mapping, CCM)用于检验变量之间的因果关系, 由于在CCM算法中, 相空间中相互靠近的点在时间上具有相似的发展趋势和运动轨迹, 因此该方法可以尝试应用于非线性、非平稳系统的预测试验研究中. 鉴于此, 本文将CCM算法分别应用于Lorenz系统和实际气候时间序列的预测中, 并检测不同相空间重构方法对预测效果的影响. 主要结果如下: 1)不论是理想Lorenz模型还是实际气候序列, 对于单变量、多变量和多视角嵌入法3种重构相空间方法而言, 多视角嵌入法对变量的预测效果最好, 表明对于给定长度的时间序列, 重构相空间中包含的信息越多, 其预测能力越强; 2)将NAM (northern hemisphere annular mode)加入SAT (surface air temperature)的重构相空间中可以改善SAT的预测效果. 在使用单变量、多变量和多视角嵌入法进行预测时, 利用复杂系统中变量中共有信息的特性, 在时间序列长度一定的情况下, 可以利用动力系统的复杂性来增加系统内的信息. 基于因果检验的预测建模方法, 通过挖掘数据中定量信息的提取, 对非线性、非平稳系统预测技巧的改进提供了一个新颖的思路.

     

    The prediction of nonlinear and non-stationary systems is a research topic of great scientific significance. In some recent work the convergent cross mapping (CCM) algorithm is used to detect the causal relationship between variables. In the CCM algorithm, the points close to each other in the phase space have similar trends and trajectories in time. Therefore, this method can be applied to the prediction of experimental researches of nonlinear and non-stationary systems. Therefore, in this paper the CCM algorithm is applied to the prediction of the Lorenz system and the actual climate time series, and the effects of different phase space reconstruction methods on the prediction skill are investigated. The preliminary results are as follows. 1) No matter whether the ideal Lorenz model or the actual climate series, of the three reconstruction phase space methods of univariate, multivariate, and multiview embedding method, the multiview embedding method is the best predictive skill, indicating that for a given length of time series, the more the information contained in the reconstructed phase space, the stronger its predictive ability is. 2) Adding the data of NAM (northern hemisphere annular mode) to the reconstructed phase space of SAT (surface air temperature) can improve the prediction effect on prediction of SAT. Using the univariable, multivariable, and multiview embedding method for implementing prediction, the characteristics of common information in the complex system are considered. On condition that the length of the time series is fixed, the complexity of the dynamic system can be used to increase the information of the system. Based on causality detection, through the extraction of quantitative information of data, a novel idea for the improvement of predictive skills in nonlinear and non-stationary systems can be obtained.

     

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