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将去趋势波动分析法(detrended fluctuation analysis,DFA)和替代数据法相结合,同时引入启发式分割算法和卡方检验,提出了一种确定极端气候事件阈值的新方法,称为随机重排去趋势波动分析(stochastic re-sort detrended fluctuation analysis, S-DFA)方法. 同百分位阈值方法相比,S-DFA方法明确指出了极端事件和非极端事件之间的临界值. 基于中国气象局公布的中国165个国际交换站19612006年无缺测的逐日日平均气温资料,利用随机重排去趋势波动分析(S-DFA)方法计算并分析了中国极端低温事件阈值的空间分布特征,并对S-DFA方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验. 从可预报性的角度给出了极端低温事件综合指标的定义. 这一综合指标将极端低温事件的发生频次和强度综合起来,且兼顾了不同地区各自特有的区域气候背景,进一步说明了综合指标定义的合理性. 基于极端低温事件综合指标的空间分布规律,将中国19612006年间极端低温事件分为四个不同等级的地区. 极端低温综合指标整体表现出下降趋势,在20世纪80年代初期之前综合指标的变化具有两个明显的准10年周期,而在这之后则一直处于下降趋势且大大低于平均值,直到90年代中期以后才再次上升至平均值附近.By combining detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method with surrogate data method, and using the Heuristic segmentation algorithm as well as Chi-Square statistics, we develop a new method to determine the threshold of extreme events, e.g. stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis (S-DFA) method. The S-DFA method has a certain phsical background, when the occurrence rate of the data is small, then these data belong to little-probability events and they contain so little information about the dynamic system, the states corresponding to these data are abnormal states or extreme states of the system. When the occurrence rate of the data is large or even in distribution these data do not belong to little-probability events and they contain much information about the system, the states corresponding to these data are normal states of the system. Compared with the Percentile curves method, the S-DFA method gives the critical value between extreme event and non-extreame event, which is definite and unique. We also extensively validate the effectiveness of S-DFA method through extreme event detection.
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Keywords:
- detrended fluctuation analysis /
- surrogate data /
- extreme event /
- threshold
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[2] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Chang(New York:Cambridge University Press)p316
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[1] IPCC 2001 Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press) p155
[2] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Chang(New York:Cambridge University Press)p316
[3] [4] Xiong K G, Yang J, Wang S Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2843 (in Chinese) [熊开国、 杨 杰、 万仕全、 封国林、 胡经国 2009 物理学报 58 2843 ]
[5] [6] [7] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Metho-ds on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Observational Data (Beijing:Metrological Press) p84 (in Chinese) [封国林、 董文杰、 龚志强、 侯 威、 万仕全、 支 蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社)]
[8] Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys.Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、 杨 杰、 王启光、 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]
[9] [10] Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groisman P Y 2000 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Socie-ty 81 417
[11] [12] Render S, Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[13] [14] [15] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全、 张 璐、 杨 杰、 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 655]
[16] Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨 杰、 侯 威、 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]
[17] [18] [19] Wan S Q, Gu C H, Kang J P 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 676 (in Chinese) [万仕全、 顾承华、 康建鹏等 2010 物理学报 59 676]
[20] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[21] [22] [23] He W P, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2009 Non. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[24] Janosi I M,Janecsko B,Kondor I 1999 Physica A 269 111
[25] [26] Ausloos M 2000 Physica A 285 48
[27] [28] [29] Fraedrich K 2002 Stoch. Dynam. 2 403
[30] Lux T, Marehesi M 1999 Nature 397 498
[31] [32] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333 (in Chinese)[杨 萍、 侯 威、 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5333]
[33] [34] [35] Panlov A N, Sosnovtseva O V, Ziganshin A R 2002 Physica A 316 233
[36] Lee J M, Kin D J, Kim I Y 2002 Computers in Biology and Medicine 32 37
[37] [38] [39] Ott E 1993 Chaos in dynamical systems (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press) p305
[40] Theiler J, Linsay P S 1993 M Rubin Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past (Addison-Wesley, Reading Mass. Press) p429
[41] [42] [43] Timmer J 1998 Phys. Rev. E 58 5153
[44] [45] Theiler J, Eubank S, Longtin A 1992 Physica D 58 77
[46] Kugiumtzis D 2000 Phys. Rev. E 62 25
[47] [48] [49] Timmer J 2000 Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 2647
[50] [51] Stam C J, Mpijn J P, Pritchard W S 1998 Physica D 112 361
[52] Bernaola G P 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 168
[53] [54] [55] Oliver J L, Bernaola G P, Carpena P, Romn R R 2001 Gene 276 47
[56] Chernoff H, Lehmann E L 1954 The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 25 579
[57] [58] Plackett R L 1993 International Statistical Review 51 59
[59] [60] [61] Greenwood P E, Nikulin M S 1996 Wiley, New York. ISBN 047155779X
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