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最概然温度背景下不同气候态中国夏冬季极端温度事件时空分布特征

钱忠华 侯威 杨萍 封国林

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最概然温度背景下不同气候态中国夏冬季极端温度事件时空分布特征

钱忠华, 侯威, 杨萍, 封国林

Characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of extreme temperature events over China mainland in different climate states against the backdrop of most probable temperature

Qian Zhong-Hua, Hou Wei, Yang Ping, Feng Guo-Lin
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  • 利用19612009年中国逐日最高温度资料,分成19611990年、19712000年和19812009年三个气候态(分别称为Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ态),基于偏态概率密度函数定义极端温度事件,从频次、强度两个角度研究了不同气候态下中国夏季和冬季极端温度事件的时空变化特征. 空间分布上,夏季极端高温的频次、强度在Ⅰ态黄淮、江淮流域显著减小,在Ⅲ态,干旱半干旱以及经济发达的长江沿岸、长江三角洲以及东南沿海地区显著增加;冬季极端低温频次在Ⅱ态中的北方、长江三角洲以及Ⅲ态中的高原、东北东南部、长江三角洲显著降低. 冬季极端低温强度整体呈降低趋势,但区域特征不明显. 极端温度频次和强度在空间上一致性较好;时间演化上,夏季极端高温频次、强度均在Ⅱ,Ⅲ态显著增加,冬季极端低温频次、强度降低的趋势有所减缓. 在当前气候态(Ⅲ态)夏季极端高温在经济发达地区发生比较频繁且极端性在增强;冬季极端低温的发生维持在一个稳定状态且极端性也相对比较稳定. 极端温度事件的频次与强度在时间变化趋势上存在较好的一致性. 在Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ态共同时段内,后一气候态检测出的极端高温频次均比前一气候态少,极端低温频次均比前一气候态多,这与背景温度随气候态逐渐升高是相一致的;后一气候态检测出的极端高温强度均比前一气候态小,极端低温强度均比前一气候态大. 在20世纪70年代末80年代初全球气候系统突变前,极端高温频次具有明显的下降趋势,突变后显著上升;极端低温频次在突变前后变化不明显. 极端高温强度突变前表现出轻微的下降趋势,在突变后上升趋势明显;极端低温强度在突变前后大致相当,突变后的整体强度稍低于突变前.
    Daily max temperature records of National Meteorological Information Center from 1961 to 2009 over China mainland are divided into three climate states of 19611990,19712000,19812009 (just called StateⅠ, StateⅡ, State Ⅲ respectively). Most probable temperature(MPT) and extreme temperature events are defined according to the skewed function. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of frequency and strength of extreme temperature events over China mainland in different climate sates against the backdrop of MPT are analyzed. Spatially, frequency and strength of extremly high temperature in summer decrease significantly in the Yangtze-Huaihe river valley and the Yellow river and Huaihe River valley in StateⅠ and increase significantly in the arid-semiarid region and the econormically developed Yangtze River delta in State Ⅲ. The frequency of extremely low temperature in winter reduces remarkably in the north part and the Yangtze River delta in StateⅡ and in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the southeast part of northeast China, the Yangtze River delta in State Ⅲ. The strength of extremely low temperature in winter reduces on the whole and provincial characteristics are not obvious. The frequency and the strength of extreme temperature events are consistont spatially. Temporally, the frequency and the strength of extremely high temperature in summer increase obviously both in StateⅡ and State Ⅲ. The frequency and the strength of extremely low temperature in winter reduce obviously in StateⅡ and the reducing trend slows down in State Ⅲ. Extremely high temperature in summer occurs frequently and extremely low temperature in winter remains stable. Extremity of high temperature in summer is stronger while in winter is stable relatively. The frequency and the strength of extreme temperature events are consistent temporally. During the common time period of States Ⅰ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ, the frequency of extremely high temperature events in the last state was always less than the former while the low temperature events are more, which is in accordance with the fact that the background temperature steps up with the states; the strength of extremely high temperature events in the latter state is less than that of the former while the strength of extremely low temperature events is stronger. For the abrupt change of climate at the end of the 1970 s and the beginning of the 1980 s, the frequency of extreme high temperature events decreases before the change and increases obviously after the change while the ones of extremely low temperature do not change significantly correspondingly; the strength of extremely high temperature events decreassd slightly before the change and increases obviously after the change while the strength of extremely low temperature does not change significantly for the change but the whole strength after the change is slightly lower than the one before the change.
    • 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:41005043,40930592),国家科技支撑项目(批准号:2007BAC29B01,2009BAC51B04)和全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB950504)资助的课题.
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    [16]

    Sun Z B, Zhang N 2008 J. Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 31 123 (in Chinese)[孙照渤、 张 宁 2008 南京气象学院学报 31 123]

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    Wang Y, Shi N, Gu J Q 2006 Sci. Atmos. Sin. 30 162(in Chinese) [王 颖、 施 能、 顾骏强 2006 大气科学 30 162 ]

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    [42]
    [43]

    Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076

    [44]
    [45]

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  • 收稿日期:  2010-11-24
  • 修回日期:  2011-01-05
  • 刊出日期:  2011-05-05

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