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中国物理学会期刊

基于极端学习机的多变量混沌时间序列预测

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.61.080507

Multivariate chaotic time series prediction based on extreme learning machine

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.61.080507
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  • 针对多变量混沌时间序列预测问题, 提出了一种基于输入变量选择和极端学习机的预测模型. 其基本思想是 对多变量混沌时间序列进行相空间重构后, 采用互信息方法选择与预测输出统计相关最高的重构输入变量, 借助极端学习机的通用逼近能力建立多变量混沌时间序列的预测模型. 为进一步提高预测精度, 采用模型选择算法选择具有最小期望风险的极端学习机预测模型. 基于Lorenz, Rssler多变量混沌时间序列及Rssler超混沌时间序列的仿真结果证明所提方法的有效性.

     

    For multivariate chaotic time series prediction problem, a prediction based on input variable selection and extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. The multivariate chaotic time series is reconstructed in phase space, and a mutual information based method is used to select the input variables, which have high statistics information with the output variables. The extreme learning machine is conducted to model the multivariate chaotic time series in the phase space by utilizing its approximation capability. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, a model selection algorithm is conducted for extreme learning machine to choose an expected minimum risk prediction model. Simulation results based on Lorenz, Rssler multivariate chaotic time series and Rssler hyperchaotic time series show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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