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基于气候变化综合指数的中国近50年来气候变化敏感性研究

吴浩 侯威 钱忠华 胡经国

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基于气候变化综合指数的中国近50年来气候变化敏感性研究

吴浩, 侯威, 钱忠华, 胡经国

The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index

Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Qian Zhong-Hua, Hu Jing-Guo
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  • 气候变化指数是目前有关气候变化研究领域的前沿课题, 国内外在气候变化研究领域存在着许多具体指数,但关于综合指数的研究却非常少见. 本文将基于温度和降水的单一要素指数的气候变化信息进行综合, 得到一个综合气候变化指数CCI (climate change index)以评估中国近50年来的气候变化及其区域敏感性.指数大小表征气候突变前后极端气候事件的频数之差, 反映该地区应对气候变化的能力,反映该地区对气候变化的敏感性. 通过该指数可以获得多种气候变化的相关信息,从而为更好地应对极端气候事件提供判断依据. 研究结果显示,内蒙古大部、东北中部、云南以及西北中部等地CCI指数较大, 说明这些地区相对于气候突变之前极端气候事件频发. 中国各个省份中的所有站点的CCI指数平均值表明,中国江南和西南东部对气候变化不敏感; 华北和东北地区极端气候事件频发.气候变化在高纬度地区和热带、 亚热带地区表现明显,北方和西南比较敏感,而黄河以南敏感性较弱, 沿海地区由于受季风及台风带来的强降水的影响, CCI指数相对偏大,敏感性较强.
    Climate change index is one of advanced issues in climate change research. There exist many specific indices in climate change research in China and other countries, but comprehensive indexes are very rare. So in this paper, a comprehensive climate change index (CCI) is defined based on single factor of temperature and precipitation index to assess the sensitivity of climate change, and the comprehensive information about climate change is obtained. Because the index size represents the difference in frequency between before and after extreme climate events around abrupt climate change, reflecting the ability for one region to respond to climate change and the sensitivity to the climate change, the index indicates a variety of information about climate change and can provide a certain judgment basis to better deal with extreme climate events. According to the CCI, the climate change and its regional sensitivity in China in recent 50 years are discussed. The results show that Inner Mongolia, northeast central, northwest and central Yunnan have higher CCI indexes, which indicates that the extreme climate events in these regions happen more frequently after the abrupt climate change. The mean CCI is computed of all stations in each province in China, showing that South China and east part of Southwest China each have a minimal index, indicating that these areas are not sensitive to climate change; in the North and Northeast China extreme events happen frequently. Climate change is obvious in high latitude and tropical and subtropical regions, the North and Southwest China are more sensitive, while the South of the Yellow River is less sensitive. The coastal areas with relatively high CCI have strong sensitivities due to the heavy rainfall influence from monsoon and typhoon.
    • 基金项目: 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(批准号: 2012CB955902) 和国家自然科学基金(批准号: 41175067, 41105033)资助的课题.
    • Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).
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    Ding Y H, Ren G Y 2007 National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Beijing: Science Press) p33 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 任国玉 2007 气候变化国家评估报告(北京: 科学出版社) 第33页]

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    Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 371 (in Chinese) [邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 371]

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    Wang J, Jiang Z H, Yan M L, Zhang J L 2008 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 28 1084 (in Chinese) [王冀, 江志红, 严明良, 张金玲 2008 气象科学 28 1084]

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    Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

    [8]

    Baettig M B, Wild M, Imboden D M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L01705

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    Ren G Y, Chen Y, Zou X K, Zhou Y Q, Wang X L, Jiang Y, Ren F M, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 354 (in Chinese) [任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 周雅清, 王小玲, 江滢, 任福民, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 354]

    [10]

    Fu C B 1994 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [11]

    Wang Q G, Zhang Z P 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 1976 (in Chinese) [王启光, 张增平 2008 物理学报 57 1976]

    [12]

    Yin Y H, Wu S H, Chen G 2009 J. Natural Resources 24 2147 (in Chinese) [尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 陈刚 2009 自然资源学报 24 2147]

    [13]

    IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press) p881

    [14]

    Allen M R, Ingram W J 2002 Nature 419 224

    [15]

    Hegerl G C, Zwiers F W, Stott P A, Kharin V V 2004 J. Clim. 17 3683

    [16]

    Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全, 杨杰, 王启光, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]

    [17]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

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    Huang D Q, Qian Y F 2008 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni 47 112 (in Chinese) [黄丹青, 钱永甫 2008 中山大学学报 47 112]

    [19]

    Barnett T, Zwiers D F 2005 J. Clim. 18 1291

    [20]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Clim. 5 1959

    [21]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [22]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Clim. Change 42 31

    [23]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [24]

    Ding Y H, Dai X S 1994 Meteorological Monthly 20 19 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 戴晓苏 1994 气象 20 19]

    [25]

    Zhao J H, Feng G L, Zhang S X, Sun S P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 099205 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 孙树鹏 2011 物理学报 60 099205]

    [26]

    Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W 2007 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3 144 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 144]

    [27]

    Chen W H, Liu Y X, Ma Z G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 251 (in Chinese) [陈文海, 柳艳香, 马柱国 2002 高原气象 21 251]

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    Fu C B, Ma Z G 2008 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 32 752 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 马柱国 2008 大气科学 32 752]

  • [1]

    Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p299

    [2]

    Ding Y H, Ren G Y 2007 National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Beijing: Science Press) p33 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 任国玉 2007 气候变化国家评估报告(北京: 科学出版社) 第33页]

    [3]

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 2002 Aggregated Environmental Indices—Review of Aggregation Methodologies in Use Rep. ENV/EPOC/SE

    [4]

    Yang P, Liu W D, Wang Q G, Xiong K G, Hou W 2010 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 21 29 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 熊开国, 侯威 2010 应用气象学报 21 29]

    [5]

    Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 371 (in Chinese) [邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 371]

    [6]

    Wang J, Jiang Z H, Yan M L, Zhang J L 2008 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 28 1084 (in Chinese) [王冀, 江志红, 严明良, 张金玲 2008 气象科学 28 1084]

    [7]

    Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

    [8]

    Baettig M B, Wild M, Imboden D M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L01705

    [9]

    Ren G Y, Chen Y, Zou X K, Zhou Y Q, Wang X L, Jiang Y, Ren F M, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 354 (in Chinese) [任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 周雅清, 王小玲, 江滢, 任福民, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 354]

    [10]

    Fu C B 1994 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [11]

    Wang Q G, Zhang Z P 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 1976 (in Chinese) [王启光, 张增平 2008 物理学报 57 1976]

    [12]

    Yin Y H, Wu S H, Chen G 2009 J. Natural Resources 24 2147 (in Chinese) [尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 陈刚 2009 自然资源学报 24 2147]

    [13]

    IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press) p881

    [14]

    Allen M R, Ingram W J 2002 Nature 419 224

    [15]

    Hegerl G C, Zwiers F W, Stott P A, Kharin V V 2004 J. Clim. 17 3683

    [16]

    Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全, 杨杰, 王启光, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]

    [17]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

    [18]

    Huang D Q, Qian Y F 2008 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni 47 112 (in Chinese) [黄丹青, 钱永甫 2008 中山大学学报 47 112]

    [19]

    Barnett T, Zwiers D F 2005 J. Clim. 18 1291

    [20]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Clim. 5 1959

    [21]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [22]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Clim. Change 42 31

    [23]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [24]

    Ding Y H, Dai X S 1994 Meteorological Monthly 20 19 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 戴晓苏 1994 气象 20 19]

    [25]

    Zhao J H, Feng G L, Zhang S X, Sun S P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 099205 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 孙树鹏 2011 物理学报 60 099205]

    [26]

    Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W 2007 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3 144 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 144]

    [27]

    Chen W H, Liu Y X, Ma Z G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 251 (in Chinese) [陈文海, 柳艳香, 马柱国 2002 高原气象 21 251]

    [28]

    Fu C B, Ma Z G 2008 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 32 752 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 马柱国 2008 大气科学 32 752]

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-10-27
  • 修回日期:  2011-12-14
  • 刊出日期:  2012-07-05

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