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登陆点位置是热带气旋研究的重要课题.为消除因资料单一产生的误差, 本文采用19512010年中国、美国、日本三套热带气旋最佳路径资料, 分析了登陆我国大陆热带气旋频数的年际变化规律, 并研究了登陆纬度的分布和变化特征. 本文以总结三套资料一致反映的现象为主, 得到以下一些有意义的结果: 从总体上看, 中国资料集内的登陆频数比其他两套资料平均每年约多1个. 1970年后三套资料的登陆频数基本保持不变, 登陆纬度有较一致的北移, 而1970年前两者在三套资料内的变化不太一致. 从单位纬度登陆频数上看, 登陆数绝大部分集中在北纬30 以下, 且总体上随纬度增加而减少, 其中北纬2123 登陆数偏多, 北纬2021 和北纬2324 登陆数偏少.Landfall location is an important research topic in studies of tropical cyclones. For tropical cyclones that made landfall over mainland China during 1951-2010, in this work, we analyze the temporal variations in the annual landfall frequency. We first study the distribution and temporal variations in the landing latitude. To avoid the inaccuracy associated with using a single dataset, in this work we adopt three best track datasets from China, the USA, and Japan and summarize meaningful common phenomena in the three datasets: the annual landfall frequency of tropical cyclones over mainland China in the Chinese dataset is 1 more than in the other two datasets on average. Since 1970, the landfall frequency in the three datasets has shown little change, whereas the landfall latitude has shown a relatively consistent northward movement (prior to 1970, the three datasets showed different trends in frequency and latitude). The landfall frequency data, assigned to different latitude bins, show that the most tropical cyclones made landfall below 30N and that landfall frequency decreased with latitude increasing. An anomalously large (small) number of tropical cyclones made landfall over the latitude zone of 21N-23N (23N-24N and 20 N-21N).
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Keywords:
- tropical cyclone /
- landing latitude /
- interannual variation /
- track analysis
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[1] Chen L S, Ding Y H 1979 An Introduction to the West Pacific Typhoons (Beijing: Science Press) p22 (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 丁一汇1979西太平洋台风概论 (北京: 科学出版社) 第22页]
[2] Wang J B, Qian W H 2005 Chin. J. Geophys. 48 992 (in Chinese) [王金博, 钱维宏 2005 地球物理学报 48 992]
[3] Li Y, Chen L S, Zhang S J 2004 J. Tropic. Meteorol. 20 14 (in Chinese) [李英, 陈联寿, 张胜军 2004 热带气象学报 20 14]
[4] He H Y, Jian M Q, Song L L, Wei Q 2003 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 23 401 (in Chinese) [贺海晏, 简茂球, 宋丽莉, 魏青 2003 气象科学 23 401]
[5] Fogarty E A, Elsner J B, Jagger T H, Liu K B, Louie K S 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 665
[6] Ren F M, Wang X L, Chen L S, Wang Y M 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 224 (in Chinese) [任福民,王小玲,陈联寿, 王咏梅 2008 气象学报 66 224]
[7] Zhang H, Guan Y P 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129201 (in Chinese) [张翰, 管玉平 2012 物理学报 61 129201]
[8] Chan J C L, Xu M 2009 Int. J. Climatol. 29 1285
[9] Wang L, Chen G H, Huang R H 2009 J. Nanjing Institute Meteorol. 32 182 (in Chinese) [王磊,陈光华,黄荣辉 2009 南京气象学院学报 32 182]
[10] Hu Y M, Song L L, Liu A J 2008 Atmosph. Sci. Res. Appl. 1 1 (in Chinese) [胡娅敏,宋丽莉,刘爱君 2008 大气科学研究与应用 1 1]
[11] Xu X C, Yu Y B, Zhao D J 2009 J. Tropic. Meteorol. 2009 25 667 (in Chinese) [许向春,于玉斌,赵大军 2009 热带气象学报 25 667]
[12] Liu Y, Lin L X, Huang Z, Cheng Z Q 2009 Meteorol. Sci. Technol. 37 294 (in Chinese) [刘燕,林良勋,黄忠,程正泉 2009 气象科技 37 294]
[13] Yu H, Hu C M, Jiang L Y 2006 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 64 357 (in Chinese) [余晖, 胡春梅, 蒋乐贻 2006 气象学报 64 357]
[14] Zou Y, Zhao P 2009 J. Tropic. Meteorol. 25 295 (in Chinese) [邹燕, 赵平 2009 热带气象学报 25 295]
[15] Wu S A, Kong H J, Wu H 2009 J. Tropic. Meteorol. 25 660 (in Chinese) [吴胜安, 孔海江, 吴慧 2009 热带气象学报 25 660]
[16] Liang J, Ren F M, Yang X Q 2010 Acta Ocean. Sin. 32 10 (in Chinese) [梁进,任福民,杨修群 2010 海洋学报 32 10]
[17] Song J J 2010 J. Geophys. Res. 115 D12128
[18] Yu J H, Sheng S W 2010 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 30 778 (in Chinese) [余锦华, 盛思伟 2010 气象科学 30 778]
[19] Ren F M, Liang J, Wu G X, Dong W J, Yang X Q 2011 J. Clim. 24 5887
[20] Dvorak V F 1972 NOAA Technical Memorandum NESS 36 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Commerce) p15
[21] Dvorak V F 1975 Mon. Wea. Rev. 103 420
[22] Landsea C W 2006 Science 313 452
[23] Emanuel K 2005 Nature 436 686
[24] Landsea C W 2005 Nature 438 E11
[25] Emanuel K 2005 Nature 438 E13
[26] Chan J C L 2006 Science 311 1713b
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