搜索

x

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的初步研究

吴浩 侯威 颜鹏程 封国林

引用本文:
Citation:

基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的初步研究

吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程, 封国林

The preliminary research about the precursory signals of abrupt climate change based on critical slowing down phenomenon

Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Yan Peng-Cheng, Feng Guo-Lin
PDF
导出引用
  • 近年来,临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力. 基于临界慢化的理念,研究了气候突变的早期预警信号.针对20世纪70年代末80年代初的气候突变, 对全国月平均温度资料和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数进行分析,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差 和自相关系数.结果表明,气候发生突变前,全国月平均温度和PDO指数都存在明显的临界慢化现象, 这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个早期信号.将临界慢化理论用于气候突变前兆信号的研究, 对深入认识气候突变和捕捉气候突变前兆信号都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.
    In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.
    • 基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号: 2012CB955902)和国家自然科学基金(批准号: 41175067, 41105033)资助的课题.
    • Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).
    [1]

    Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]

    [2]

    Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumber R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615

    [3]

    Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [4]

    Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]

    [5]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]

    [6]

    Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]

    [7]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]

    [8]

    Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]

    [9]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]

    [10]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]

    [11]

    He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862 ]

    [12]

    He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264]

    [13]

    He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]

    [14]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604

    [15]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601

    [16]

    Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53

    [17]

    Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311

    [18]

    Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450

    [19]

    Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]

    [20]

    Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球物理学报 54 1817]

    [21]

    Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]

    [22]

    Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628

    [23]

    Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308

    [24]

    Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]

    [25]

    Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]

    [26]

    Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 物理学报 61 069201]

    [27]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]

    [28]

    Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 物理学报 61 129202]

  • [1]

    Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]

    [2]

    Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumber R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615

    [3]

    Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [4]

    Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]

    [5]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]

    [6]

    Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]

    [7]

    Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]

    [8]

    Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]

    [9]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]

    [10]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]

    [11]

    He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862 ]

    [12]

    He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264]

    [13]

    He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]

    [14]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604

    [15]

    He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601

    [16]

    Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53

    [17]

    Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311

    [18]

    Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450

    [19]

    Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]

    [20]

    Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球物理学报 54 1817]

    [21]

    Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]

    [22]

    Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628

    [23]

    Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308

    [24]

    Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]

    [25]

    Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]

    [26]

    Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 物理学报 61 069201]

    [27]

    Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]

    [28]

    Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 物理学报 61 129202]

  • [1] 商继祥, 赵云波, 胡丽娜. 高温金属熔体黏度突变探索. 物理学报, 2018, 67(10): 106402. doi: 10.7498/aps.67.20172721
    [2] 刘群群, 何文平, 顾斌. 非线性动力学方法在气候突变检测中的应用. 物理学报, 2015, 64(17): 179201. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.179201
    [3] 达朝究, 穆帅, 马德山, 于海鹏, 侯威, 龚志强. 基于Lorenz系统的数值天气转折期预报理论探索. 物理学报, 2014, 63(2): 029201. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.029201
    [4] 杨锦辉, 宋君强, 曹小群. 季节因素对气候网络影响研究. 物理学报, 2013, 62(2): 029203. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.029203
    [5] 吴浩, 侯威, 王文祥, 颜鹏程. 试用Lyapunov指数探讨气候突变及其前兆信号. 物理学报, 2013, 62(12): 129204. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.129204
    [6] 吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程. 试用临界慢化原理探讨气候突变. 物理学报, 2013, 62(3): 039206. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.039206
    [7] 吴浩, 封国林, 侯威, 颜鹏程. 中国不同区域气候突变的前兆信号. 物理学报, 2013, 62(5): 059202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.059202
    [8] 陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 姜泽辉, 王强, 孙刚, 刘寄星. 以颗粒物理原理认识地震地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测. 物理学报, 2012, 61(11): 119103. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.119103
    [9] 颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国. 基于Logistic模型的均值突变时间序列临界预警研究. 物理学报, 2012, 61(18): 189202. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.189202
    [10] 龚志强, 支蓉, 侯威, 王晓娟, 封国林. 基于复杂网络的北半球遥相关年代际变化特征研究. 物理学报, 2012, 61(2): 029202. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.029202
    [11] 陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 王强, 姜泽辉, 刘寄星. 震前兆信息传播、分布及其探测原理. 物理学报, 2011, 60(11): 119101. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.119101
    [12] 张璐, 章大全, 封国林. 中国旱涝极端事件前兆信号及可预测性研究. 物理学报, 2010, 59(8): 5896-5903. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.5896
    [13] 龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林. 中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系. 物理学报, 2009, 58(6): 4342-4353. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.4342
    [14] 王启光, 张增平. 近似熵检测气候突变的研究. 物理学报, 2008, 57(3): 1976-1983. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.1976
    [15] 施研博, 应阳君, 李金鸿. α粒子的慢化过程对D-T等离子体聚变燃烧的影响. 物理学报, 2007, 56(12): 6911-6917. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.6911
    [16] 陈时东, 朱留华, 孔令江, 刘慕仁. 优先随机慢化及预测间距对交通流的影响. 物理学报, 2007, 56(5): 2517-2522. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.2517
    [17] 封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰, 李建平. 基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究. 物理学报, 2005, 54(11): 5494-5499. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.5494
    [18] 霍裕昆. 聚变等离子体中α粒子的慢化-扩散. 物理学报, 1980, 29(3): 320-329. doi: 10.7498/aps.29.320
    [19] 黄祖洽. 关於中子在两种介质中的慢化问题. 物理学报, 1958, 14(2): 153-162. doi: 10.7498/aps.14.153
    [20] 杨振宁. 二元超格结晶之临界温度及比热突变. 物理学报, 1945, 6(1): 59-66. doi: 10.7498/aps.6.59
计量
  • 文章访问数:  6181
  • PDF下载量:  767
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2012-03-15
  • 修回日期:  2012-04-13
  • 刊出日期:  2012-10-05

/

返回文章
返回