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中国物理学会期刊

基于新主流评价库的中国实验快堆核数据不确定性传播量化

Quantification of Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in CEFR Using New Mainstream Evaluation Libraries

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  • 核数据不确定性是影响快堆安全参数计算精度的关键因素,但现有研究多局限于单一或旧版数据库,且主要关注稳态参数keff,缺乏对动力学参数βeff的系统性量化及不同评价库间的对比分析。本文以中国实验快堆为对象,基于ENDF/B-VIII.1、JEFF-3.3、JENDL-5.0和TENDL-2023四个新主流评价库,开展核数据不确定性传播研究。基于k-ratio理论将核数据不确定性传播方法从keff拓展至βeff。同时提出能量相关的不确定性贡献因子法,实现不同能区精细化不确定性溯源。结果表明,不同评价库下keff相对不确定度为0.62%~1.39%,主要源于235U裂变截面、俘获截面及有效裂变中子数;βeff相对不确定度为0.87%~4.27%,主导因素为235U缓发/瞬发中子数和238U缓发中子数,其中JEFF-3.3因缺失235U-νd协方差而严重低估该参数不确定度。整体来看,235U中高能区间对总不确定度贡献占比最高,是后续核数据优化的重点能区。本研究明确了各评价库差异特征与关键误差来源,为快堆安全评价及核数据优化提供定量依据。

     

    Nuclear data uncertainty is a major source of computational errors for key safety parameters in fast reactors. However, existing studies are largely confined to single or outdated evaluated nuclear data libraries, and most have focused on the steady-state eigenvalue keff, while systematic quantification of uncertainties in the kinetic parameter βeff remains insufficient, and comparative analyses across different libraries are notably lacking. In this paper, a comprehensive uncertainty propagation study is performed for the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) based on the four latest-generation internationally mainstream nuclear data evaluation libraries: ENDF/B-VIII.1, JEFF-3.3, JENDL-5.0, and TENDL-2023. This work systematically reveals the distinct characteristics of fast reactor parameter uncertainties predicted by these state-of-the-art libraries and fills the research gap in this field. Methodologically, sensitivity coefficients for βeff are derived using the k-ratio theory, thereby extending traditional first-order perturbation sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis framework from keff to βeff. Concurrently, an energy-dependent uncertainty contribution factor method is proposed, which enables refined identification of the energy ranges, nuclides, and reaction reaction types that contribute most to the total uncertainty. All calculations are performed with our in-house code MCSU, which combines multi-group covariance matrices processed by NJOY2016 with adjoint-weighted sensitivities obtained from Monte Carlo transport calculations.
    The results show that the four libraries yield relative uncertainties in keff ranging from 0.62% to 1.39%, with major contributions from the fission cross section, the capture cross section, and the prompt fission neutron yield of 235U. The relative uncertainties in βeff range from 0.87% to 4.27%, predominantly governed by the delayed fission neutron yield of 235U, the prompt fission neutron yield of 235U and the delayed neutron yield of 238U. Notably, JEFF-3.3 severely underestimates the uncertainty in βeff due to the absence of covariance data for the delayed fission neutron yield of 235U, highlighting the critical role of complete covariance information. Energy-dependent uncertainty contribution analysis further reveals that the intermediate- and high-energy region contributes the most to the uncertainties in both keff and βeff, with fission cross section and delayed neutron yield of 235U dominating in this energy range. Significant differences in uncertainty predictions among libraries arise primarily from variations in covariance data, especially those of the 235U fission cross section and delayed neutron yield. This study systematically quantifies the keff and βeff uncertainties for the CEFR based on multiple state-of-the-art nuclear data libraries, identifies priority directions for nuclear data improvement, and provides quantitative guidance for fast reactor safety assessment and future evaluated library development.

     

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