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通过探讨极端降水与城市道路交通受灾损失之间的关系确定灾损函数曲线,首先构建城市道路积水排尽模型、积水持续时间模型,以及道路积水的经济损失评估模型等理论模型,再引入与道路抗涝能力相关的社会经济因子,最终构建了一个极端降水对道路交通造成经济损失的估算模型.经检验,该模型具有较好的模拟性能和适用性,且所需输入变量少,计算简便,适合地区经济损失的快速评估.从该模型出发,确定了上海地区逐年极端降水降水强度和总过程降水量的阈值,从而提出一个新的极端降水定义方法——随影响因子变化的固定阈值法,该方法突出了极端降水给社会
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关键词:
- 极端降水 /
- 极端降水-经济损失模型 /
- 阈值
Estimation models of economic losses due to flood are established by combining drainage times of urban road waterlogging-theoretical models and economic loss assessment models, etc. And then the "loss" curves are determined by discussing the relationships between daily mean precipitation and economic losses of urban transportation departments. Some socioeconomic variables, which are closely related to the anti-flood capability of urban transportation departments, are adopted in the models in this paper. By model testing, the economic loss assessment model established in this paper shows good simulation performance and applicability. And it has simple computation, needs few input variables, and is suited for the rapid assessment of the economic loss of some region. Based on the models established in this paper, the thresholds of the precipitation intensity and the total storm precipitation of each year in Shanghai are calculated. And a new definition of extreme precipitation, called "fixed thresholds varying with the influence factors", is given. This definition underlines the socioeconomic character of extreme precipitation which would cause economic loss and possesses high social practical values compared with other definitions of extreme precipitation.[1] National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China 1995 Report of the Damage Caused by Disaster in China, 1949—1995 (Beijing: China Statistics Press)(in Chinese) [国家统计局、民政部 1995 中国灾情报告:1949—1995. (北京: 中国统计出版社)]
[2] Hu A G 1998 Environmental Protection 10 4(in Chinese)[胡鞍钢 1998 环境保护 10 4]
[3] Wang X C 2008 Risk Analysis and Insurance Adaptive Mechanism of Extreme Climate Events over China (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p1—13(in Chinese) [王雪臣 2008中国极端气候事件的风险分析及保险适应机制研究 (北京:气象出版社) 第1—13页]
[4] Ouellete P, El-Jabir N, ASCE M, Rousselle J 1985 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 111 467
[5] Jin J L, Wei Y M, Yang X H 1997 Journal of Catastrophology 13 6(in Chinese)[金菊良、魏一鸣、杨晓华 1997 灾害学 13 6]
[6] Liu X L 2005 The Theory and Application of Regional Flood Risk Assessment (Beijing: Peking University Press)(in Chinese)[刘新立 2005 区域水灾风险评估的理论与实践 (北京:北京大学出版社)]
[7] Lv C L, Chen S H 1993 Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 16 67(in Chinese)[吕纯濂、陈舜华 1993 南京气象学院学报 16 67]
[8] Wang S R, Yang X, Da Q L, Han Y 2000 Acta Geographica Sinica s1 163(in Chinese)[王守荣、杨 昕、达庆利、韩 勇 2000 地理学报 s1 163]
[9] Wu J Y, Han W X, Xu Y, Zhou N S 1998 Systems Engineering- Theory and Practice 11 53(in Chinese)[武靖源、韩文秀、徐 杨、周年生 1998 系统工程理论与实践 11 53]
[10] Li C Q, Hou G B 2010 Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering 3 89(in Chinese)[李传奇、侯贵兵 2010 水利水电技术 3 89]
[11] Wen L D, Fan B X, Xu X F, Wei M J 1998 Hydrology 1 22(in Chinese)[文立道、范本贤、徐晓峰、韦明杰 1998 水文 1 22]
[12] Zhang L 1995 Geographical Research 3 110(in Chinese)[张 犁 1995 地理研究 3 110]
[13] Cen G P, Shen J, Fan R S 1996 Journal of Xi'an University of Technology 3 184(in Chinese)[岑国平、沈 晋、范荣生 1996西安理工大学学报 3 184]
[14] Liu Z H, Liu G F, Chou L 2009 Journal of Economics of Water Resources 1 41(in Chinese)[刘朝辉、刘高峰、仇 蕾 2009 水利经济 1 41]
[15] Groisman P Y, Karl T R, Easterling D R, Knight R W, Jamason P F, Hennessy K J, Suppiah R, Page C M, Wibig J, Fortuniak K, Razuvaev V N, Douglas A, Frland E, Zhai P M 1999 Climatic Change 42 243
[16] Zhang D Q, Qian Z H 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 4634(in Chinese)[章大全、钱忠华 2008 物理学报 57 4634]
[17] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076
[18] Yan Z W, Yang C 2000 Climatic and Environmental Research 5 267(in Chinese)[严中伟、杨 赤 2000 气候与环境研究 5 267]
[19] Zhai P M, Ren F M, Zhang Q 1999 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 57 208(in Chinese)[翟盘茂、任福民、张 强 1999 气象学报 57 208]
[20] Jiang Z H, Ding Y G, Chen W L 2007 Advances in Climate Change Research 3 202(in Chinese)[江志红、丁裕国、陈威霖 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 202]
[21] Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932(in Chinese)[侯 威、杨萍、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3932]
[22] Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342(in Chinese)[龚志强、王晓娟、支 蓉、封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]
[23] Cai M, Ding Y G, Jiang Z H 2007 Plateau Meteorology 26 309(in Chinese)[蔡 敏、丁裕国、江志红 2007 高原气象 26 309]
[24] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333(in Chinese)[杨 萍、侯 威、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5333]
[25] Ding Y G, Liu J F, Zhang Y C 2004 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 23 770(in Chinese)[丁裕国、刘吉峰、张耀存 2004 大气科学 23 770]
[26] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data(Beijing: Metrological press) (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯 威、万仕全、支 蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 气象出版社]
[27] Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2853(in Chinese)[封国林、王启光、侯 威、龚志强、支 蓉 2009 物理学报 58 2853]
[28] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181(in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 物理学报 51 1181]
[29] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 4 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001物理学报 50 606]
[30] Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau 2009 Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press) (in Chinese)[上海市统计局 2009 上海统计年鉴2009 (北京:中国统计出版社)]
[31] Wen K G 2006 Chinese Climate Ceremony (Volume of Shanghai) (Beijing: China Meteorological Press)(in Chinese)[温克刚2006中国气象灾害大典·上海卷 (北京:气象出版社)]
[32] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 5 1959
[33] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[34] Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2008 Chaos Solitons and Fractal 37 487
[35] Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
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[1] National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China 1995 Report of the Damage Caused by Disaster in China, 1949—1995 (Beijing: China Statistics Press)(in Chinese) [国家统计局、民政部 1995 中国灾情报告:1949—1995. (北京: 中国统计出版社)]
[2] Hu A G 1998 Environmental Protection 10 4(in Chinese)[胡鞍钢 1998 环境保护 10 4]
[3] Wang X C 2008 Risk Analysis and Insurance Adaptive Mechanism of Extreme Climate Events over China (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p1—13(in Chinese) [王雪臣 2008中国极端气候事件的风险分析及保险适应机制研究 (北京:气象出版社) 第1—13页]
[4] Ouellete P, El-Jabir N, ASCE M, Rousselle J 1985 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 111 467
[5] Jin J L, Wei Y M, Yang X H 1997 Journal of Catastrophology 13 6(in Chinese)[金菊良、魏一鸣、杨晓华 1997 灾害学 13 6]
[6] Liu X L 2005 The Theory and Application of Regional Flood Risk Assessment (Beijing: Peking University Press)(in Chinese)[刘新立 2005 区域水灾风险评估的理论与实践 (北京:北京大学出版社)]
[7] Lv C L, Chen S H 1993 Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 16 67(in Chinese)[吕纯濂、陈舜华 1993 南京气象学院学报 16 67]
[8] Wang S R, Yang X, Da Q L, Han Y 2000 Acta Geographica Sinica s1 163(in Chinese)[王守荣、杨 昕、达庆利、韩 勇 2000 地理学报 s1 163]
[9] Wu J Y, Han W X, Xu Y, Zhou N S 1998 Systems Engineering- Theory and Practice 11 53(in Chinese)[武靖源、韩文秀、徐 杨、周年生 1998 系统工程理论与实践 11 53]
[10] Li C Q, Hou G B 2010 Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering 3 89(in Chinese)[李传奇、侯贵兵 2010 水利水电技术 3 89]
[11] Wen L D, Fan B X, Xu X F, Wei M J 1998 Hydrology 1 22(in Chinese)[文立道、范本贤、徐晓峰、韦明杰 1998 水文 1 22]
[12] Zhang L 1995 Geographical Research 3 110(in Chinese)[张 犁 1995 地理研究 3 110]
[13] Cen G P, Shen J, Fan R S 1996 Journal of Xi'an University of Technology 3 184(in Chinese)[岑国平、沈 晋、范荣生 1996西安理工大学学报 3 184]
[14] Liu Z H, Liu G F, Chou L 2009 Journal of Economics of Water Resources 1 41(in Chinese)[刘朝辉、刘高峰、仇 蕾 2009 水利经济 1 41]
[15] Groisman P Y, Karl T R, Easterling D R, Knight R W, Jamason P F, Hennessy K J, Suppiah R, Page C M, Wibig J, Fortuniak K, Razuvaev V N, Douglas A, Frland E, Zhai P M 1999 Climatic Change 42 243
[16] Zhang D Q, Qian Z H 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 4634(in Chinese)[章大全、钱忠华 2008 物理学报 57 4634]
[17] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076
[18] Yan Z W, Yang C 2000 Climatic and Environmental Research 5 267(in Chinese)[严中伟、杨 赤 2000 气候与环境研究 5 267]
[19] Zhai P M, Ren F M, Zhang Q 1999 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 57 208(in Chinese)[翟盘茂、任福民、张 强 1999 气象学报 57 208]
[20] Jiang Z H, Ding Y G, Chen W L 2007 Advances in Climate Change Research 3 202(in Chinese)[江志红、丁裕国、陈威霖 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 202]
[21] Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932(in Chinese)[侯 威、杨萍、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3932]
[22] Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342(in Chinese)[龚志强、王晓娟、支 蓉、封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]
[23] Cai M, Ding Y G, Jiang Z H 2007 Plateau Meteorology 26 309(in Chinese)[蔡 敏、丁裕国、江志红 2007 高原气象 26 309]
[24] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333(in Chinese)[杨 萍、侯 威、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5333]
[25] Ding Y G, Liu J F, Zhang Y C 2004 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 23 770(in Chinese)[丁裕国、刘吉峰、张耀存 2004 大气科学 23 770]
[26] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data(Beijing: Metrological press) (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯 威、万仕全、支 蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 气象出版社]
[27] Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2853(in Chinese)[封国林、王启光、侯 威、龚志强、支 蓉 2009 物理学报 58 2853]
[28] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181(in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 物理学报 51 1181]
[29] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 4 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001物理学报 50 606]
[30] Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau 2009 Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2009 (Beijing: China Statistics Press) (in Chinese)[上海市统计局 2009 上海统计年鉴2009 (北京:中国统计出版社)]
[31] Wen K G 2006 Chinese Climate Ceremony (Volume of Shanghai) (Beijing: China Meteorological Press)(in Chinese)[温克刚2006中国气象灾害大典·上海卷 (北京:气象出版社)]
[32] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 5 1959
[33] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[34] Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2008 Chaos Solitons and Fractal 37 487
[35] Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
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