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近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系

赵俊虎 封国林 张世轩 孙树鹏

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近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系

赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 孙树鹏

Seasonal changes in China during recent 48 years and their relationship with temperature extremes

Feng Guo-Lin, Zhang Shi-Xuan, Sun Shu-Peng, Zhao Jun-Hu
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  • 利用中国1961—2008年752个站点逐日温度、气压、相对湿度和降水量资料,采用非线性相似度量方法对中国四季进行了划分,对比分析了中国的8个区域与全国整体的季节变化.此外,研究了中国极端温度频次的年际变化,并通过相关分析和敏感性试验探讨了中国近48年四季变化与极端温度事件的联系.结果表明:1)随着全球变暖中国大部分地区春、夏季起始时间提前,持续时间延长;秋季起始时间变化不大,但持续时间延长;冬季起始时间推后,持续时间显著缩短.2)随着夏季延长,除华东以外中国大部分地区极端高温频次增加;随着冬季缩短,中国
    With nonlinear similarity method, we divised the seasons for whole China on the basis of daily mean temperature, pressure, relative humidity and precipitation at 752 stations for the period 1961—2008, and analyze the seasonal division for eight regions of China and seasonal times. In addition, the relevant statistic data are established which contain the annual variation in frequency of extreme temperature in China. By combining these two research findings, their relationship over the past 48 years is found through correlation analysis and sensitivity test. The results show that: (1) in most areas of China, the spring and summer starting time move up, their durations are extended, autumn starting time changes a litter, and its duration is extended, while winter is pushed back the starting time, and its duration is shortened. (2) With the summer extending, the frequency of extreme high temperature is increased in most areas of China except East China, while the shortening of winter results in the frequency of extreme low temperature declining markedly. (3) The existence and the annual change of extreme high and low temperature are the reason why the lengths of summer and winter change, and they are also the main reason why the substantial fluctuations of the lengths of summer and winter take place.
    • 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:40875040,40930952)和科技支撑项目(批准号:2007BAC29B01,2009BAC51B04)资助的课题.
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    Zhang B K 1934 Acta. Geog. Sin. 1 1 (in Chinese)[张宝堃 1934 地理学报1 1]

    [2]

    Liu K N, Wu H X 1956 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 27 219 (in Chinese)[刘匡南、邬鸿勋 1956气象学报 27 219]

    [3]

    Zeng Q C, Zhang B L 1992 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 16 641 (in Chinese)[曾庆存、张邦林 1992 大气科学 16 641]

    [4]

    Zhang B L, Zeng Q C 1998 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 22 129 (in Chinese)[张邦林、曾庆存 1998 大气科学 22 129]

    [5]

    Dong W J, Jiang Y D, Yang S 2010 Climatic Change 99 81

    [6]

    Miu Q L, Wang Y 2007 Annual Conference of China Meteorological Society Guangzhou, November 23-25,2007 p693 (in Chinese)[缪启龙、王 勇 2007 中国气象学会2007年年会 第693页]

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    Tang M C, Zhong H L, Li D L 2003 Plateau. Meteo. 22 440[汤懋苍、钟海玲、李栋梁 2003 高原气象 22 440]

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    Sun S P, Zhang L, Hou W, Feng G L 2011 Acta. Phys. Sin. 60 029201 (in Chinese)[孙树鹏、张 璐、侯 威、封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029201]

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    Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press) p316

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    Dai X S 2008 Meteorology Soft Sciences 1 151 [戴晓苏 2008 气象软科学 1 151]

    [11]

    Ren G Y, Feng G L, Yan Z W 2010 Advances in Climate Change Research 15 4 (in Chinese)[任国玉、封国林、严中伟 2010 气候与环境研究 15 4]

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    Jang Z H, Li J P, Tu Q P, Zhang Q 2004 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 28 545 (in Chinese)[江志红、李建平、屠其璞、张 强 2004 大气科学 28 545 ]

    [13]

    Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese)[封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61 ]

    [14]

    Shen Y B, Zhao Z C, Shi G Y 2008 Advances in Earth Science 23 1001 (in Chinese)[申彦波、赵宗慈、石广玉 2008 地球科学进展 23 1001]

    [15]

    Zhang J C, Lin Z G 1985 Climate of China (Shanghai: Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers) p55 (in Chinese) [张家诚、林之光 1985 中国气候(上海:上海科学技术出版社) 第55页]

    [16]

    Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (Beijing: Metrological Press) p227 (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯 威、万仕全、支 蓉 2006(观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 气象出版社)第227页]

    [17]

    Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta. Phys. Sin. 50 4 606 (in Chinese)[封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 物理学报 50 606]

    [18]

    Tu Q P 2000 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 58 288(in Chinese)[屠其璞 2000 气象学报 58 288]

    [19]

    Ren G Y,Chu Z Y, Zhou Y Q 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 701 (in Chinese)[任国玉、初子莹、周雅清 2005 气候与环境研究 10 701]

    [20]

    Qian W H,Chen D L, Lin X 2004 Climate Change News-letter 3 8 (in Chinese) [钱维宏、陈德亮、林 祥 2004 气候变化通讯 3 8]

    [21]

    Wang Z Y,Ding Y H, He Jinhai,Yu J 2004 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 62 228 (in Chinese) [王遵娅、丁一汇、何金海、虞 俊 2004 气象学报 62 228]

    [22]

    Ren G Y, Guo J, Xu M Z, Chu Z Y 2005 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 63 942 (in Chinese) [任国玉、郭 军、徐铭志、初子莹 2005 气象学报 63 942]

    [23]

    Yan Z, Xia J, Qian C, Zhou W 2010 Adv. Atmos. Sci. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010- 0006-3

    [24]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 5 1959

    [25]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Climate Change 42 31

    [26]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [27]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强、王晓娟、支 蓉、封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

    [28]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese)[翟盘茂、任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [29]

    Wang C H, Li X, Miao Q L 2003 Scientia Geographica Sinice 23 441(in Chinese)[王翠花、李雄、缪启龙 2003 地理科学 23 441]

  • [1]

    Zhang B K 1934 Acta. Geog. Sin. 1 1 (in Chinese)[张宝堃 1934 地理学报1 1]

    [2]

    Liu K N, Wu H X 1956 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 27 219 (in Chinese)[刘匡南、邬鸿勋 1956气象学报 27 219]

    [3]

    Zeng Q C, Zhang B L 1992 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 16 641 (in Chinese)[曾庆存、张邦林 1992 大气科学 16 641]

    [4]

    Zhang B L, Zeng Q C 1998 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 22 129 (in Chinese)[张邦林、曾庆存 1998 大气科学 22 129]

    [5]

    Dong W J, Jiang Y D, Yang S 2010 Climatic Change 99 81

    [6]

    Miu Q L, Wang Y 2007 Annual Conference of China Meteorological Society Guangzhou, November 23-25,2007 p693 (in Chinese)[缪启龙、王 勇 2007 中国气象学会2007年年会 第693页]

    [7]

    Tang M C, Zhong H L, Li D L 2003 Plateau. Meteo. 22 440[汤懋苍、钟海玲、李栋梁 2003 高原气象 22 440]

    [8]

    Sun S P, Zhang L, Hou W, Feng G L 2011 Acta. Phys. Sin. 60 029201 (in Chinese)[孙树鹏、张 璐、侯 威、封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029201]

    [9]

    Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press) p316

    [10]

    Dai X S 2008 Meteorology Soft Sciences 1 151 [戴晓苏 2008 气象软科学 1 151]

    [11]

    Ren G Y, Feng G L, Yan Z W 2010 Advances in Climate Change Research 15 4 (in Chinese)[任国玉、封国林、严中伟 2010 气候与环境研究 15 4]

    [12]

    Jang Z H, Li J P, Tu Q P, Zhang Q 2004 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 28 545 (in Chinese)[江志红、李建平、屠其璞、张 强 2004 大气科学 28 545 ]

    [13]

    Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese)[封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61 ]

    [14]

    Shen Y B, Zhao Z C, Shi G Y 2008 Advances in Earth Science 23 1001 (in Chinese)[申彦波、赵宗慈、石广玉 2008 地球科学进展 23 1001]

    [15]

    Zhang J C, Lin Z G 1985 Climate of China (Shanghai: Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers) p55 (in Chinese) [张家诚、林之光 1985 中国气候(上海:上海科学技术出版社) 第55页]

    [16]

    Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (Beijing: Metrological Press) p227 (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯 威、万仕全、支 蓉 2006(观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 气象出版社)第227页]

    [17]

    Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta. Phys. Sin. 50 4 606 (in Chinese)[封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 物理学报 50 606]

    [18]

    Tu Q P 2000 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 58 288(in Chinese)[屠其璞 2000 气象学报 58 288]

    [19]

    Ren G Y,Chu Z Y, Zhou Y Q 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 701 (in Chinese)[任国玉、初子莹、周雅清 2005 气候与环境研究 10 701]

    [20]

    Qian W H,Chen D L, Lin X 2004 Climate Change News-letter 3 8 (in Chinese) [钱维宏、陈德亮、林 祥 2004 气候变化通讯 3 8]

    [21]

    Wang Z Y,Ding Y H, He Jinhai,Yu J 2004 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 62 228 (in Chinese) [王遵娅、丁一汇、何金海、虞 俊 2004 气象学报 62 228]

    [22]

    Ren G Y, Guo J, Xu M Z, Chu Z Y 2005 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 63 942 (in Chinese) [任国玉、郭 军、徐铭志、初子莹 2005 气象学报 63 942]

    [23]

    Yan Z, Xia J, Qian C, Zhou W 2010 Adv. Atmos. Sci. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010- 0006-3

    [24]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 5 1959

    [25]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Climate Change 42 31

    [26]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [27]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强、王晓娟、支 蓉、封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

    [28]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta. Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese)[翟盘茂、任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [29]

    Wang C H, Li X, Miao Q L 2003 Scientia Geographica Sinice 23 441(in Chinese)[王翠花、李雄、缪启龙 2003 地理科学 23 441]

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  • 收稿日期:  2010-10-09
  • 修回日期:  2010-12-16
  • 刊出日期:  2011-09-15

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