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Each of the seismogenic locked segments in a well-defined seismic zone can accumulate high strain energy to bring about a major earthquake. Hence, better understanding the physical implication of self-organized criticality in the locked segment (rock) failure process is crucial to achieving insights into such issues as earthquake predictability and so on. We point out that there exist two critical points in the locked segment fracturing process. The first critical point is volume expansion point, which is the starting point of self-organization, at which a rupture event with high energy occurs. It can be regarded as the only identified precursor to macroscopic rupture of locked segment. The second critical point is the peak strength point, namely, the instability point, at which a major earthquake which is able to generate obvious surface rupture zones takes place. According to our previous research on the theoretical relationship of strain ratio between the two points as well as the constrained expressions concerning earthquake magnitudes and elastic strain energy, also known as the theory about the brittle failure of multiple locked segments in a seismogenic fault system, we can predict some characteristic earthquakes occurring at the first and the second critical point of locked segment, e.g., the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman MW9.0 earthquake in Indonesia, the 2008 Sichuan MS8.1 earthquake in China, and the 2011 Tōhoku MW9.0 earthquake in Japan. This was obtained by retrospectively analyzing the earthquake cases in 62 seismic zones covering the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the Eurasia seismic belt. The present results show that the self-organized process before the locked segment (rock) instability must arise due to its heterogeneity; there exists a causal link between the self-organization and criticality; it is possible to predict some large earthquakes (e.g. characteristic earthquakes) just because of the existence of self-organized process. We emphasize here that the damage process between the two critical points is not transient behavior, usually a long-term process; the evolution of characteristic earthquakes follows a deterministic rule; there is no probability with which small earthquakes can cascade into a large event (e.g. characteristic earthquakes). In summary, this study can help to comprehend the evolutionary mechanism of characteristic earthquakes, provide a physical basis of understanding the generation process of earthquakes, and clarify such issues as the identification of earthquake types and predictability of earthquakes.
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Keywords:
- self-organization /
- critical instability /
- sandpile model /
- locked segment
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[2] Gutenberg B, Richter C F 1944 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34 185
[3] Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Mulargia F 1997 Science 275 1616
[4] Stark P B 1996 Res. Lett. 23 1399
[5] Wyss M, Aceves B R L, Park S K 1997 Science 278 487
[6] Sykes L R, Shaw B E, Scholz C H 1999 Pure Appl. Geophys. 155 207
[7] Crampin S, Gao Y 2010 Geophys. J. Int. 180 1124
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[10] Ramos O, Altshuler E, Mly K J 2009 Phys. Rev. Lett. 102 078701
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[12] Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, Wang Y Y, Huang X, Pan X H 2010 Chinese J. Geophys. 53 1001 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 徐锡伟, 胡平, 王媛媛, 黄鑫, 泮晓华 2010 地球物理学报 53 1001]
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[21] Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 407
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[23] Xue L, Qi M, Qin S Q, Li G L, Li P, Wang M M 2015 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 48 1763
[24] Xue L, Qin S Q, Sun Q, Wang Y Y, Lee M L, Li W C 2014 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 47 1183
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[36] Li P, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Yang B C, Zhang K 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 1450 (in Chinese)[李培, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 杨百存, 张珂 2016 地球物理学进展 31 1450]
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[39] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1953 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1953]
[40] Xue L, Qin S Q, Li P, Li G L, Oyediran I A, Pan X H 2014 Eng. Geol. 182 79
[41] Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P 2010 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 29 873 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 王媛媛, 马平 2010 岩石力学与工程学报 29 873]
[42] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Chen H R, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Chinese J. Geophys. 60 1746 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 陈竑然, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学报 60 1746]
[43] Song Z P 2011 Global Earthquake Catalog 1 (Beijing: Seismological Press) pp1-450 (in Chinese)[宋治平 2011 全球地震目录 1 (北京: 地震出版社) 第1450页]
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[1] Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K 1987 Phys. Rev. Lett. 59 381
[2] Gutenberg B, Richter C F 1944 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34 185
[3] Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Mulargia F 1997 Science 275 1616
[4] Stark P B 1996 Res. Lett. 23 1399
[5] Wyss M, Aceves B R L, Park S K 1997 Science 278 487
[6] Sykes L R, Shaw B E, Scholz C H 1999 Pure Appl. Geophys. 155 207
[7] Crampin S, Gao Y 2010 Geophys. J. Int. 180 1124
[8] Wu Z L 1998 Earthquake Research in China 14 1 (in Chinese)[吴忠良 1998 中国地震 14 1]
[9] Frette V, Christensen K, Malthe-Srenssen A, Feder J, Jssang T, Mrakin P 1996 Nature 379 49
[10] Ramos O, Altshuler E, Mly K J 2009 Phys. Rev. Lett. 102 078701
[11] Wu X W, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Li P, Zhang K 2016 Chinese J. Geophys. 59 3696 (in Chinese)[吴晓娲, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 李培, 张珂 2016 地球物理学报 59 3696]
[12] Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, Wang Y Y, Huang X, Pan X H 2010 Chinese J. Geophys. 53 1001 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 徐锡伟, 胡平, 王媛媛, 黄鑫, 泮晓华 2010 地球物理学报 53 1001]
[13] Sornette A, Sornette D 1989 EPL 9 197
[14] Chen K, Bak P, Obukhov S P 1991 Phys. Rev. A 43 625
[15] Zheng J 1992 Prog. Geophys. 7 20 (in Chinese)[郑捷 1992 地球物理学进展 7 20]
[16] Godano C, Alonzo M L, Caruso V 1993 Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 80 117
[17] Yoshioka N 2003 Earth Planets Space 55 283
[18] Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Jiang Z H, Wang Q, Sun G, Liu J X 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119103 (in Chinese)[陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 姜泽辉, 王强, 孙刚, 刘寄星 2012 物理学报 61 119103]
[19] Brace W F, Paulding B W, Scholz C H 1966 J. Geophys. Res. 71 3939
[20] Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 395
[21] Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 407
[22] Martin C D, Chandler N A 1994 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 31 643
[23] Xue L, Qi M, Qin S Q, Li G L, Li P, Wang M M 2015 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 48 1763
[24] Xue L, Qin S Q, Sun Q, Wang Y Y, Lee M L, Li W C 2014 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 47 1183
[25] Chen H R, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Zhang K, Wu X W 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 2200 (in Chinese)[陈竑然, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 张珂, 吴晓娲 2017 地球物理学进展 32 2200]
[26] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Zhang K 2018 Chinese J. Geophys. 61 616 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 张珂 2018 地球物理学报 61 616]
[27] Lei X L, Masuda K, Nishizawa O, Jouniaux L, Liu L, Ma W, Satoh T, Kusunose K 2004 J. Struct. Geol. 26 247
[28] Zhao X G, Wang J, Ma L K, Su R, Cai M, Wang G B 2013 Proceedings of the 3rd ISRM SINOROCK Symposium. London: CRC Press/Balkema, p75
[29] Sun J 1999 Rheology of Rock and Soil Materials and its Engineering Application 1 (Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press) p434 (in Chinese)[孙钧 1999岩土材料流变及其工程应用 1 (北京: 中国建筑工业出版社) 第434页]
[30] Hudson J A, Crouch S L, Fairhurst C 1972 Eng. Geol. 6 155
[31] Meng X Y, Li S H, Zhang J F 2004 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 23 1760 (in Chinese)[孟祥跃, 李世海, 张均锋 2004 岩石力学与工程学报 23 1760]
[32] Qin S Q, Li P, Yang B C, Xue L, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 574 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 杨百存, 薛雷, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 574]
[33] Qin S Q, Yang B C, Wu X W, Xue L, Li P 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 115 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 吴晓娲, 薛雷, 李培 2016 地球物理学进展 31 115]
[34] Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 559 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 559]
[35] Qin S Q, Li P, Xue L, Li G L, Wang M M 2014 Prog. Geophys. 29 1526 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 薛雷, 李国梁, 王苗苗 2014 球物理学进展 29 1526]
[36] Li P, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Yang B C, Zhang K 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 1450 (in Chinese)[李培, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 杨百存, 张珂 2016 地球物理学进展 31 1450]
[37] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1067 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1067]
[38] Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2015 Prog. Geophys. 30 2013 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2015 地球物理学进展 30 2013]
[39] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1953 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1953]
[40] Xue L, Qin S Q, Li P, Li G L, Oyediran I A, Pan X H 2014 Eng. Geol. 182 79
[41] Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P 2010 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 29 873 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 王媛媛, 马平 2010 岩石力学与工程学报 29 873]
[42] Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Chen H R, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Chinese J. Geophys. 60 1746 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 陈竑然, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学报 60 1746]
[43] Song Z P 2011 Global Earthquake Catalog 1 (Beijing: Seismological Press) pp1-450 (in Chinese)[宋治平 2011 全球地震目录 1 (北京: 地震出版社) 第1450页]
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