The experiments of transseasonal prediction by combining together the dynamical and statistical methods of the geopotential height fields on the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes

Zhao Jun-Hu; Yang Jie; Gong Zhi-Qiang; Zhi Rong

doi:10.7498/aps.62.099206

Abstract

The blocking high in Eurasia mid-high latitudes (EMHBH) is one of the leading members of East Asian summer monsoon circulation system, which also has a crucial influence on the summer flood/drought in China, especially in the region of Yangtze River. However, the objective quantitative prediction of EMHBH is an urgent issue we are facing and also a complicated problem in the current short-term climate prediction. This paper, by using the dynamical and statistical prediction (DSP) methods and based on the forecast data of the numerical modal(CGCM) and the abundant historical observations, has carried out prediction experiments of the above three blocking high regions in the summer averaged 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The results show that the DSP methods can diminish the prediction errors to some extent, which is also suitable for operational application. In addition, sensitivity tests show that the selection of the number of similar targets or similar yeas has significant influences on the prediction results.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Grant Nos. 40930952, 41105055), and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.s 2012CB955902, 2013CB430204).

References

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[29]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
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[32]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[33]	Zhao Z G 2000 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China. (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 75-78 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场 (北京: 气象出版社) 第75—78页]
[34]	Nan S L, Li J P 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 2266
[35]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1632
[36]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 661
[37]	Li Z C, Bi B G, Zhu T, Wang Y H, Niu R Y 2004 Meteorologica Mon 30 4 (in Chinese) [李泽椿, 毕宝贵, 朱彤, 王友恒, 牛若芸 2004 气象 30 4]
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Cited By

[1]	Berggren R, Bolin B, Rossby C G 1949 Tellus. 1 14
[2]	Rex D F 1950 Tellus. 2 196
[3]	Hartmann D H, Ghan S J 1980 Mon. Wea. Rev. 108 1144
[4]	Noar P F 1983 Aust. Met. May. 31 37
[5]	Kaas E, Branstator G 1993 J. Atoms. Sci. 50 3061
[6]	Pelly J L, Hoskins B J 2003 J. Atmos. Sci. 60 743
[7]	Luo Z X 1989 Science China B 6 665 (in Chinese) [罗哲贤 1989 中国科学(B辑) 6 665]
[8]	Yang Y W 2003 Meteorologica Mon 29 3 (in Chinese) [杨义文 2003 气象 29 3]
[9]	Zhou X P 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 75 (in Chinese) [周晓平 1957 气象学报 28 75]
[10]	Li F, Ding Y H 2004 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 62 347 (in Chinese) [李峰, 丁一汇 2004 气象学报 62 347]
[11]	Tang M C 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 282 (in Chinese) [汤懋苍 1957 气象学报 28 282]
[12]	Zhang P Z, Yang S L 1996 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 54 633 (in Chinese) [张培忠, 杨素兰 1996 气象学报 54 633]
[13]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y 1998 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 56 199 (in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言 1998 气象学报 56 199]
[14]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Peng J B 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 815 (in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言, 彭京备 2008 大气科学 32 815]
[15]	Tao S Y, Zhao Y J, Chen X M 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 29 119 (in Chinese) [陶诗言, 赵煜佳, 陈晓敏 1958 气象学报 29 119]
[16]	Wang Y 1992 J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 70 929
[17]	Chen H Y 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 1 (in Chinese) [陈汉耀 1957 气象学报 28 1]
[18]	Li W J 1999 Meteorologica Mon 25 20 (in Chinese) [李维京 1999 气象 25 20]
[19]	Chen J Y, Wang Y H, Wang W 2001 Plateau Meteor 20 388 (in Chinese) [陈菊英, 王玉红, 王文 2001 高原气象 20 388]
[20]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W 1978 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1771
[21]	Van H M 1994 Tellus 46A 314
[22]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176]
[23]	Chou J F 1974 Science China. 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[24]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteor 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[25]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 物理学报 50 606]
[26]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181 [封国林, 董文杰, 贾晓静, 曹鸿兴 2002 物理学报 51 1181]
[27]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[28]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Science China. D 37 1589 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 中国科学(D) 37 1589]
[29]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[30]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci.35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[31]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 69 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 物理学报 69 149204]
[32]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[33]	Zhao Z G 2000 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China. (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 75-78 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场 (北京: 气象出版社) 第75—78页]
[34]	Nan S L, Li J P 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 2266
[35]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1632
[36]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 661
[37]	Li Z C, Bi B G, Zhu T, Wang Y H, Niu R Y 2004 Meteorologica Mon 30 4 (in Chinese) [李泽椿, 毕宝贵, 朱彤, 王友恒, 牛若芸 2004 气象 30 4]
[38]	Kang I S, Lee J Y, Park C K 2004 J. Climate 17 834
[39]	Wang S W 1984 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 1 7

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Vol. 62, Issue 9 - 2013-05-05

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