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本文利用1979–2011年欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的再分析资料 (ERA-Interim), 运用经验正交函数展开 (EOF) 和相似系数等方法, 对中国地区水分循环诸要素的时空特征进行了计算与分析. 研究结果表明: 在空间分布特征上, 蒸发量、纬向水汽通量和经向水汽通量均与大气可降水量的空间分布最相似, 大气可降水量和降水量均与蒸发量的空间分布最相似, 降水量与纬向水汽通量的相似系数略大于其与经向水汽通量的相似系数; 在时间演变上: 年降水量在1979–2002年间, 呈现非常显著的上升趋势; 在2002–2011 年间, 呈现显著的下降趋势. 年蒸发量在该两个时段的变化趋势与年降水量一致, 但均比年降水量明显; 年蒸发量在1979–2011年间呈现非常显著的上升趋势, 其年际变化明显小于年降水量. 可降水量和水汽通量散度在1979–2011年间的长期变化趋势不明显, 但可降水量的年际变化呈阶段式增大, 水汽通量的年际变化一直较大. 纬向与经向水汽通量均存在2–3年为周期的年际变化; 此外, 纬向水汽通量在1979–2011年间还存在显著的下降趋势. 春、秋季的水汽通量都存在显著下降的长期变化趋势, 夏、冬季的长期变化趋势不明显. 四季都存在2–3年为周期的年际变化. 此外, 夏季还存在明显的年代际转折.In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of different moisture cycle factors over China by using the ERA-Interim data supplied by the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). The methods used in this paper include mainly the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), similarity coefficients, one-dimensional linear regression and so on. Results show that the spatial distribution of evaporation, zonal and meridional moisture flux are all extremely similar to that of precipitable water. While the spatial distribution of precipitable water and precipitation are both very similar to that of evaporation. The similarity coefficient between precipitation and zonal moisture flux is a little larger than that between precipitation and meridional moisture flux. In terms of temporal characteristics, it is shown that precipitation has an obvious upward trend during 1979–2002 and an obvious downward trend during 2002–2011. The trend of evaporation is the same as that of precipitation during the same period, but the former is more obvious than the latter. Besides, evaporation also shows an obvious upward trend during 1979–2011. Both of precipitable water and moisture flux divergence show a slightly downword trend. Zonal and meridional moisture flux change in a period of 2–3 years. Further, zonal moisture flux has an obvious downward trend during 1979–2011. The vapor flux has an obvious downward trend both in spring and autumn, and changes in a period of 2–3 years for all four seasons. Besides, the vapor flux in summer presents a decadal transition.
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Keywords:
- moisture cycle /
- spatial and temporal characteristic /
- EOF /
- similarity coefficient
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[2] Xu S Y 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 29 33 (in Chinese) [徐淑英 1958 气象学报 29 33]
[3] Shi Y N, Liu H L, Ma K Y 1982 Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 2 147 (in Chinese) [施永年, 刘蕙兰, 马开玉 1982 气象科学 2 147]
[4] Liu G W 1984 Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 15 1 (in Chinese) [刘国纬 1984 水利学报 15 1]
[5] Liu G W 1997 Atmosphere Process in Hydrologic Cycle (Beijing: Science Press) pp74-78 (in Chinese) [刘国纬 1997 水文循环的大气过程 (北京: 科学出版社) 第74–78页]
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[7] Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Progress in Natural Science 17 42
[8] Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 119201
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[10] Wu Y P, Wang C H, Shen Y P 2010 Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 32 1074 (in Chinese) [吴永萍, 王澄海, 沈永平 2010 冰川冻土 32 1074]
[11] Wu Y P, Wang C H, Shen Y P 2011 Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 33 1268 (in Chinese) [吴永萍, 王澄海, 沈永平 2011 冰川冻土 33 1268]
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[18] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[19] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
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[22] Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 物理学报 61 149204]
[23] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2011 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 25 316
[24] Shi N 2009 Statistic Analysis and Forecast Methods in Meteorology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-233 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第128–233页]
[25] Shi N, Chen J Q, Tu Q P 1995 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 53 531 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞 1995 气象学报 53 531]
[26] Shi N, Yi Y M, Gu J Q, Xia D D 2006 Chin. Phys. Soc. 15 2180
[27] Shi N, Gu J Q, Feng G L 2007 Mathematics in Practice and Theory 37 98 (in Chinese) [施能, 顾俊强, 封国林 2007 数学的实践与认识 37 98]
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[1] Lu G H, He H 2006 Advances in Water Science 17 419 (in Chinese) [陆桂华, 何海 2006 水科学进展 17 419]
[2] Xu S Y 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 29 33 (in Chinese) [徐淑英 1958 气象学报 29 33]
[3] Shi Y N, Liu H L, Ma K Y 1982 Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 2 147 (in Chinese) [施永年, 刘蕙兰, 马开玉 1982 气象科学 2 147]
[4] Liu G W 1984 Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 15 1 (in Chinese) [刘国纬 1984 水利学报 15 1]
[5] Liu G W 1997 Atmosphere Process in Hydrologic Cycle (Beijing: Science Press) pp74-78 (in Chinese) [刘国纬 1997 水文循环的大气过程 (北京: 科学出版社) 第74–78页]
[6] Huang R H, Zhang Z Z, Huang G, Ren B H 1998 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 22 460 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 张振洲, 黄刚, 任保华 1998 大气科学 22 460]
[7] Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Progress in Natural Science 17 42
[8] Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 119201
[9] Jiang X W, Li Y Q, Wang X 2008 Acta Geographica Sinica 63 482 (in Chinese) [蒋兴文, 李跃清, 王鑫 2008 地理学报 63 482]
[10] Wu Y P, Wang C H, Shen Y P 2010 Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 32 1074 (in Chinese) [吴永萍, 王澄海, 沈永平 2010 冰川冻土 32 1074]
[11] Wu Y P, Wang C H, Shen Y P 2011 Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 33 1268 (in Chinese) [吴永萍, 王澄海, 沈永平 2011 冰川冻土 33 1268]
[12] Wu Y P, Shen Y P, Li B 2012 Ecological Complexity 9 63
[13] Dominguez F, Kumar P, Liang X Z, Ting M F 2006 Journal of Climate 19 1513
[14] Mariotti A 2010 Journal of Climate 23 1513
[15] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏凤英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[16] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[17] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[18] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[19] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[20] Zhao J H, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Yang J, Gong Z Q 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 1069 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 王启光, 杨杰, 龚志强 2011 大气科学 35 1069]
[21] Zhao J H, Yang J, Feng G L, Zhang S X 2013 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 24 43 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 封国林, 张世轩 2013 应用气象学报 24 43]
[22] Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 物理学报 61 149204]
[23] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2011 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 25 316
[24] Shi N 2009 Statistic Analysis and Forecast Methods in Meteorology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-233 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第128–233页]
[25] Shi N, Chen J Q, Tu Q P 1995 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 53 531 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞 1995 气象学报 53 531]
[26] Shi N, Yi Y M, Gu J Q, Xia D D 2006 Chin. Phys. Soc. 15 2180
[27] Shi N, Gu J Q, Feng G L 2007 Mathematics in Practice and Theory 37 98 (in Chinese) [施能, 顾俊强, 封国林 2007 数学的实践与认识 37 98]
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