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The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index

Wu Hao Hou Wei Qian Zhong-Hua Hu Jing-Guo

The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index

Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Qian Zhong-Hua, Hu Jing-Guo
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  • Climate change index is one of advanced issues in climate change research. There exist many specific indices in climate change research in China and other countries, but comprehensive indexes are very rare. So in this paper, a comprehensive climate change index (CCI) is defined based on single factor of temperature and precipitation index to assess the sensitivity of climate change, and the comprehensive information about climate change is obtained. Because the index size represents the difference in frequency between before and after extreme climate events around abrupt climate change, reflecting the ability for one region to respond to climate change and the sensitivity to the climate change, the index indicates a variety of information about climate change and can provide a certain judgment basis to better deal with extreme climate events. According to the CCI, the climate change and its regional sensitivity in China in recent 50 years are discussed. The results show that Inner Mongolia, northeast central, northwest and central Yunnan have higher CCI indexes, which indicates that the extreme climate events in these regions happen more frequently after the abrupt climate change. The mean CCI is computed of all stations in each province in China, showing that South China and east part of Southwest China each have a minimal index, indicating that these areas are not sensitive to climate change; in the North and Northeast China extreme events happen frequently. Climate change is obvious in high latitude and tropical and subtropical regions, the North and Southwest China are more sensitive, while the South of the Yellow River is less sensitive. The coastal areas with relatively high CCI have strong sensitivities due to the heavy rainfall influence from monsoon and typhoon.
    • Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).
    [1]

    Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p299

    [2]

    Ding Y H, Ren G Y 2007 National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Beijing: Science Press) p33 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 任国玉 2007 气候变化国家评估报告(北京: 科学出版社) 第33页]

    [3]

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 2002 Aggregated Environmental Indices—Review of Aggregation Methodologies in Use Rep. ENV/EPOC/SE

    [4]

    Yang P, Liu W D, Wang Q G, Xiong K G, Hou W 2010 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 21 29 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 熊开国, 侯威 2010 应用气象学报 21 29]

    [5]

    Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 371 (in Chinese) [邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 371]

    [6]

    Wang J, Jiang Z H, Yan M L, Zhang J L 2008 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 28 1084 (in Chinese) [王冀, 江志红, 严明良, 张金玲 2008 气象科学 28 1084]

    [7]

    Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

    [8]

    Baettig M B, Wild M, Imboden D M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L01705

    [9]

    Ren G Y, Chen Y, Zou X K, Zhou Y Q, Wang X L, Jiang Y, Ren F M, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 354 (in Chinese) [任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 周雅清, 王小玲, 江滢, 任福民, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 354]

    [10]

    Fu C B 1994 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [11]

    Wang Q G, Zhang Z P 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 1976 (in Chinese) [王启光, 张增平 2008 物理学报 57 1976]

    [12]

    Yin Y H, Wu S H, Chen G 2009 J. Natural Resources 24 2147 (in Chinese) [尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 陈刚 2009 自然资源学报 24 2147]

    [13]

    IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press) p881

    [14]

    Allen M R, Ingram W J 2002 Nature 419 224

    [15]

    Hegerl G C, Zwiers F W, Stott P A, Kharin V V 2004 J. Clim. 17 3683

    [16]

    Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全, 杨杰, 王启光, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]

    [17]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

    [18]

    Huang D Q, Qian Y F 2008 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni 47 112 (in Chinese) [黄丹青, 钱永甫 2008 中山大学学报 47 112]

    [19]

    Barnett T, Zwiers D F 2005 J. Clim. 18 1291

    [20]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Clim. 5 1959

    [21]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [22]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Clim. Change 42 31

    [23]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [24]

    Ding Y H, Dai X S 1994 Meteorological Monthly 20 19 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 戴晓苏 1994 气象 20 19]

    [25]

    Zhao J H, Feng G L, Zhang S X, Sun S P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 099205 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 孙树鹏 2011 物理学报 60 099205]

    [26]

    Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W 2007 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3 144 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 144]

    [27]

    Chen W H, Liu Y X, Ma Z G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 251 (in Chinese) [陈文海, 柳艳香, 马柱国 2002 高原气象 21 251]

    [28]

    Fu C B, Ma Z G 2008 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 32 752 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 马柱国 2008 大气科学 32 752]

  • [1]

    Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p299

    [2]

    Ding Y H, Ren G Y 2007 National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Beijing: Science Press) p33 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 任国玉 2007 气候变化国家评估报告(北京: 科学出版社) 第33页]

    [3]

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 2002 Aggregated Environmental Indices—Review of Aggregation Methodologies in Use Rep. ENV/EPOC/SE

    [4]

    Yang P, Liu W D, Wang Q G, Xiong K G, Hou W 2010 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 21 29 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 熊开国, 侯威 2010 应用气象学报 21 29]

    [5]

    Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 371 (in Chinese) [邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 371]

    [6]

    Wang J, Jiang Z H, Yan M L, Zhang J L 2008 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 28 1084 (in Chinese) [王冀, 江志红, 严明良, 张金玲 2008 气象科学 28 1084]

    [7]

    Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

    [8]

    Baettig M B, Wild M, Imboden D M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L01705

    [9]

    Ren G Y, Chen Y, Zou X K, Zhou Y Q, Wang X L, Jiang Y, Ren F M, Zhang Q 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 354 (in Chinese) [任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 周雅清, 王小玲, 江滢, 任福民, 张强 2010 气候与环境研究 15 354]

    [10]

    Fu C B 1994 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]

    [11]

    Wang Q G, Zhang Z P 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 1976 (in Chinese) [王启光, 张增平 2008 物理学报 57 1976]

    [12]

    Yin Y H, Wu S H, Chen G 2009 J. Natural Resources 24 2147 (in Chinese) [尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 陈刚 2009 自然资源学报 24 2147]

    [13]

    IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press) p881

    [14]

    Allen M R, Ingram W J 2002 Nature 419 224

    [15]

    Hegerl G C, Zwiers F W, Stott P A, Kharin V V 2004 J. Clim. 17 3683

    [16]

    Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全, 杨杰, 王启光, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4354]

    [17]

    Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 物理学报 58 4342]

    [18]

    Huang D Q, Qian Y F 2008 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni 47 112 (in Chinese) [黄丹青, 钱永甫 2008 中山大学学报 47 112]

    [19]

    Barnett T, Zwiers D F 2005 J. Clim. 18 1291

    [20]

    Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Clim. 5 1959

    [21]

    Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736

    [22]

    Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D 1999 Clim. Change 42 31

    [23]

    Zhai P M, Ren F M 1997 Acta Meteo. Sin. 55 418 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 任福民 1997 气象学报 55 418]

    [24]

    Ding Y H, Dai X S 1994 Meteorological Monthly 20 19 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 戴晓苏 1994 气象 20 19]

    [25]

    Zhao J H, Feng G L, Zhang S X, Sun S P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 099205 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 孙树鹏 2011 物理学报 60 099205]

    [26]

    Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W 2007 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3 144 (in Chinese) [翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 144]

    [27]

    Chen W H, Liu Y X, Ma Z G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 251 (in Chinese) [陈文海, 柳艳香, 马柱国 2002 高原气象 21 251]

    [28]

    Fu C B, Ma Z G 2008 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 32 752 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 马柱国 2008 大气科学 32 752]

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  • Received Date:  27 October 2011
  • Accepted Date:  14 December 2011
  • Published Online:  05 July 2012

The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index

  • 1. College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
  • 2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
  • 3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Fund Project:  Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).

Abstract: Climate change index is one of advanced issues in climate change research. There exist many specific indices in climate change research in China and other countries, but comprehensive indexes are very rare. So in this paper, a comprehensive climate change index (CCI) is defined based on single factor of temperature and precipitation index to assess the sensitivity of climate change, and the comprehensive information about climate change is obtained. Because the index size represents the difference in frequency between before and after extreme climate events around abrupt climate change, reflecting the ability for one region to respond to climate change and the sensitivity to the climate change, the index indicates a variety of information about climate change and can provide a certain judgment basis to better deal with extreme climate events. According to the CCI, the climate change and its regional sensitivity in China in recent 50 years are discussed. The results show that Inner Mongolia, northeast central, northwest and central Yunnan have higher CCI indexes, which indicates that the extreme climate events in these regions happen more frequently after the abrupt climate change. The mean CCI is computed of all stations in each province in China, showing that South China and east part of Southwest China each have a minimal index, indicating that these areas are not sensitive to climate change; in the North and Northeast China extreme events happen frequently. Climate change is obvious in high latitude and tropical and subtropical regions, the North and Southwest China are more sensitive, while the South of the Yellow River is less sensitive. The coastal areas with relatively high CCI have strong sensitivities due to the heavy rainfall influence from monsoon and typhoon.

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