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In the solar-terrestrial space environment, the ionosphere couples tightly with the upper magnetic layer as well as the lower middle atmosphere in various forms. Meanwhile, the ionosphere can affect radio-communication and satellite navigations, so the research on ionosphere prediction model is very important. Now, the accuracy of statistic prediction mode is about 60%, but cannot meet the practical requirements. In order to solve the problem, the prediction model of total electron content (TEC) data is achieved in three major phases: decomposition of the spatiotemporal variability of the TEC data, noise reduction of the encoded space, and time variability and the prediction, by a nonlinear forecasting technique of the time variability. Experiments show that the new prediction model is better than traditional prediction model. The prediction data shows realistic features and a reliable physical distribution, and the relative accuracies of prediction for 1, 2, 4, and 7 d obtained by our method is 0.32, 0.48, 0.68 and 0.94 TECU.
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Keywords:
- total electron content /
- empirical orthogonal functions decomposition /
- time series /
- genetic algorithm
[1] Yan H J 1996 The Astronomical Journal 112 1312
[2] Liu R Y, Liu G H, Wu J 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 300 (in Chinese) [刘瑞源, 刘国华, 吴健 2008 地球物理学报 51 300]
[3] Li Z G, Cheng Z Y, Feng C G 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 327 (in Chinese) [李志刚, 程宗颐, 冯初刚 2007 地球物理学报 50 327]
[4] Yue X A, Wan W X, Liu L B 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 787 (in Chinese) [乐新安, 万卫星, 刘立波 2010 地球物理学报 53 787]
[5] Everson R, Cornillon P, Sirovich L 2002 J. Phys. Ocean. 27 468
[6] Bennett A 2002 Inverse Modeling of the Ocean and the Atmosphere (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
[7] Beckers J, Rixen M 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 1839
[8] Toumazou V, Cretaux J 2001 Mon. Weath Rev. 125 1243
[9] Alvarez A 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 717
[10] Sheng Z, Shi H Q, Ding Y Z 2009 Adv. Ocean. Sci. 27 243 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 石汉青, 丁又专 2009 海洋科学进展 27 243]
[11] Alvarez A, Barth A, Rixen M 2005 Ocean Model. 17 325
[12] Beckers J, Barth A, Alvarez A 2006 Ocean Sci. 16 183
[13] Guo P, Xu X, Zhang G X 2011 J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 69 947
[14] Sheng Z 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119301 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2011 物理学报 60 119301]
[15] Sheng Z, Chen J Q, Xu R H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069301 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 陈加清, 徐如海 2012 物理学报 61 069301]
[16] Sheng Z, Fang H X 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/21/2/02
[17] Wu Y Y, Hong Z J, Guo P, Zheng J 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 639
[18] Guo P, Kuo Y H, Sokolovskiy S V, Lenschow D H 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. DOI: 10.1175/2011JAS3612.1
[19] Wei M, Qin X, Wang X H, Jiang W M 2007 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 30 736 (in Chinese) [魏鸣, 秦学, 王啸华, 蒋维楣 2007 南京气象学院学报 30 736]
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[1] Yan H J 1996 The Astronomical Journal 112 1312
[2] Liu R Y, Liu G H, Wu J 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 300 (in Chinese) [刘瑞源, 刘国华, 吴健 2008 地球物理学报 51 300]
[3] Li Z G, Cheng Z Y, Feng C G 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 327 (in Chinese) [李志刚, 程宗颐, 冯初刚 2007 地球物理学报 50 327]
[4] Yue X A, Wan W X, Liu L B 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 787 (in Chinese) [乐新安, 万卫星, 刘立波 2010 地球物理学报 53 787]
[5] Everson R, Cornillon P, Sirovich L 2002 J. Phys. Ocean. 27 468
[6] Bennett A 2002 Inverse Modeling of the Ocean and the Atmosphere (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
[7] Beckers J, Rixen M 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 1839
[8] Toumazou V, Cretaux J 2001 Mon. Weath Rev. 125 1243
[9] Alvarez A 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 717
[10] Sheng Z, Shi H Q, Ding Y Z 2009 Adv. Ocean. Sci. 27 243 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 石汉青, 丁又专 2009 海洋科学进展 27 243]
[11] Alvarez A, Barth A, Rixen M 2005 Ocean Model. 17 325
[12] Beckers J, Barth A, Alvarez A 2006 Ocean Sci. 16 183
[13] Guo P, Xu X, Zhang G X 2011 J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 69 947
[14] Sheng Z 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119301 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2011 物理学报 60 119301]
[15] Sheng Z, Chen J Q, Xu R H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069301 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 陈加清, 徐如海 2012 物理学报 61 069301]
[16] Sheng Z, Fang H X 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/21/2/02
[17] Wu Y Y, Hong Z J, Guo P, Zheng J 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 639
[18] Guo P, Kuo Y H, Sokolovskiy S V, Lenschow D H 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. DOI: 10.1175/2011JAS3612.1
[19] Wei M, Qin X, Wang X H, Jiang W M 2007 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 30 736 (in Chinese) [魏鸣, 秦学, 王啸华, 蒋维楣 2007 南京气象学院学报 30 736]
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