Chaotic characteristics analysis and prediction for short-term wind speed time series

Tian Zhong-Da; Li Shu-Jiang; Wang Yan-Hong; Gao Xian-Wen

doi:10.7498/aps.64.030506

Abstract

A short-term wind speed time series prediction is studied. First, 0-1 test method for chaos is used to identify the short-term wind speed time series that has chaotic characteristics. Through phase space reconstruction, the delay time is determined by using C-C algorithm; and the embedding dimension is determined by using G-P algorithm. Then a least square support vector machine with parameters online modified is proposed, so that an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm may be used for the prediction of parameters optimization. Simulation experiment shows that the present method for its prediction accuracy, prediction error, and prediction effect is better than other prediction methods. Thus the proposed prediction method is effective, and feasible.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China;
2.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
Funds: Project supported by the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61034005).

References

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[9]	Liu H, Tian H Q, Li Y F 2012 Appl. Energ. 98 415
[10]	Li H J, Liu Y N, Wei Z N, Li X L, Cheung K W, Sun Y H, Sun G Q 2013 Electr. Power Autom. Equip. 33 28 (in Chinese) [李彗杰, 刘亚男, 卫志农, 李晓露, Kwok W Cheung, 孙永辉, 孙国强 2013 电力自动化设备 33 28]
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[12]	Li X, Wang X, Zheng Y H, Li L X, Zhou L D, Sheng X K 2014 International Conference on Renewable Energy and Environmental Technology (Zurich-Durnten: Trans Tech) p1825
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[16]	Fourati F, Chtourou M 2007 Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 15 1016
[17]	Xiao H F, Ding T 2011 Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Informatics, Cybernetics,Computer Engineering (Heidelberg: Springer) p479
[18]	Soman S S, Zareipour H, Malik O, Mandal P 2010 North American Power Symposium 2010 (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1
[19]	Sheng Z 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 219401 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2012 物理学报 61 219401]
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[21]	Li H C, Zhao J S 2005 Chin. Phys. Lett. 22 2776
[22]	Tang Z J, Ren F, Peng T, Wang W B 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 050505 (in Chinese) [唐舟进, 任峰, 彭涛, 王文博 2014 物理学报 63 050505]
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[25]	Gottald G A, Melbourne I 2009 Nonlinearity 22 1367
[26]	Kim H S, Eykholt R, Salas J D 1999 Physica D 127 48
[27]	Zhang H B, Sun X D, He Y L 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 040505 (in Chinese) [张洪宾, 孙小端, 贺玉龙 2014 物理学报 63 040505]
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[29]	Wolf A, Swift J B, Swinney H L, Vastano J A 1985 Physica D 16 285
[30]	Suykens J A K, Vandevalle J 1999 Neural Process. Lett. 9 293
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[34]	Letting L K, Munda J L, Hamam Y 2012 Solar Energ. 86 1689

Cited By

[1]	Xiu C B, Liu X T, Zhang X, Yu T T 2013 Power System Protection and Control 41 14 (in Chinese) [修春波, 刘新婷, 张欣, 于婷婷 2013 电力系统保护与控制 41 14]
[2]	Yang X Y, Sun B J, Zhang X F, Li L X 2012 Proc. the CSEE 32 35 (in Chinese) [杨锡运, 孙宝君, 张新房, 李利霞 2012 中国电机工程学报 32 35]
[3]	Ma L, Benoudjit N 2011 Appl. Energ. 88 2463
[4]	Ma L, Luan S Y, Jiang C W, Liu H L, Zhang Y 2009 Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 13 915
[5]	Pelikán E, Eben K, Resler J, Juru P, Krc P, Brabec M, Brabec T, Musilek P 2010 9th Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p45
[6]	Cuo L, Zhang Y X, Wang Q C 2013 J. Climate 26 85
[7]	Erdem E, Shi J 2011 Appl. Energ. 88 1405
[8]	Jiang J L, Lin G M 2008 Control Theory Appl. 25 374 (in Chinese) [蒋金良, 林广明 2008 控制理论与应用 25 374]
[9]	Liu H, Tian H Q, Li Y F 2012 Appl. Energ. 98 415
[10]	Li H J, Liu Y N, Wei Z N, Li X L, Cheung K W, Sun Y H, Sun G Q 2013 Electr. Power Autom. Equip. 33 28 (in Chinese) [李彗杰, 刘亚男, 卫志农, 李晓露, Kwok W Cheung, 孙永辉, 孙国强 2013 电力自动化设备 33 28]
[11]	Wang Y, Wu D L, Guo C X, Wu Q H, Qian W Z, Yang J 2010 IEEE PES General Meeting (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1
[12]	Li X, Wang X, Zheng Y H, Li L X, Zhou L D, Sheng X K 2014 International Conference on Renewable Energy and Environmental Technology (Zurich-Durnten: Trans Tech) p1825
[13]	Zeng J, Zhang H 2011 Acta Energiae Solaris Sin. 32 296 (in Chinese) [曾杰, 张华 2011 太阳能学报 32 296]
[14]	Louka P, Galanis G, Siebert N, Kariniotakis G, Katsafados P, Pytharoulis I, Kallos G 2008 J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 96 2348
[15]	Liu J B, Ding T 2012 Acta Energiae Solaris Sin. 33 1131 (in Chinese) [刘进宝, 丁涛 2012 太阳能学报 33 1131]
[16]	Fourati F, Chtourou M 2007 Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 15 1016
[17]	Xiao H F, Ding T 2011 Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Informatics, Cybernetics,Computer Engineering (Heidelberg: Springer) p479
[18]	Soman S S, Zareipour H, Malik O, Mandal P 2010 North American Power Symposium 2010 (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1
[19]	Sheng Z 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 219401 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2012 物理学报 61 219401]
[20]	Tahat A, Marti J, Khwaldeh A, Tahat K 2014 Chin. Phys. 23 046101
[21]	Li H C, Zhao J S 2005 Chin. Phys. Lett. 22 2776
[22]	Tang Z J, Ren F, Peng T, Wang W B 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 050505 (in Chinese) [唐舟进, 任峰, 彭涛, 王文博 2014 物理学报 63 050505]
[23]	Wu X D, Wang Y N, Liu W T, Zhu Z Y 2011 Chin. Phys. 20 069201
[24]	Gottald G A, Melbourne I 2009 SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 8 129
[25]	Gottald G A, Melbourne I 2009 Nonlinearity 22 1367
[26]	Kim H S, Eykholt R, Salas J D 1999 Physica D 127 48
[27]	Zhang H B, Sun X D, He Y L 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 040505 (in Chinese) [张洪宾, 孙小端, 贺玉龙 2014 物理学报 63 040505]
[28]	Grassberger P, Procaccia I 1983 Physica D 9 189
[29]	Wolf A, Swift J B, Swinney H L, Vastano J A 1985 Physica D 16 285
[30]	Suykens J A K, Vandevalle J 1999 Neural Process. Lett. 9 293
[31]	Kennedy J, Eberhart R 1995 Proceedings of the 1995 IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (Piscataway, NJ: IEEE) p1942
[32]	Regis R G 2014 J. Comput. Sci. 5 12
[33]	Dong Z S, Zhang X Y, Zeng J C 2013 Trans. Can. Soc. Mech. Eng. 37 1189
[34]	Letting L K, Munda J L, Hamam Y 2012 Solar Energ. 86 1689

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Vol. 64, Issue 3 - 2015-02-05

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