Study of the stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming 1030 days during the snow storm event in January 2008

Wang Kuo; Feng Guo-Lin; Sun Shu-Peng; Zheng Zhi-Hai

doi:10.7498/aps.61.109201

Abstract

In this paper we extract components in extended-range forecast for the coming 10-30 days by the Butterworth Band-pass filter using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data of geopotential height from 1978 to 2007 and from January 6th to February 4th, and at the same time extract the basic function of climate state by empirical orthogonal function (EOF). And we use the same way to deal with the daily data of geopotential height during the snow storm event in January 2008 by the Butterworth Band-pass Filter. We use the contribution rate to explain the variance of EOF and the elements which influence this weather process in a period of 1030 days. Stable components in extended-range forecast for the coming 1030 days can be divided into two parts according to the contribution rate analysis: climatic stable components and abnormal stable components. Results show that climatic stable components are in the subject status during the snow storm event in January 2008 while abnormal stable components are equivalent to a disturbed value superimposed on climatic stable components. The influence of abnormal stable components cannot be neglected, and they can play quite a significant role. The circulation patterns of abnormal stable components correspond well to anomalies in Pacific region. These conclusions deepen our understanding of 1030 days components and provide a new way to think and solve the problem of extended range forecast for the coming 1030 days.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952, 41175067, 41075058), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201106016, GYHY201106015).

References

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[26]	Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Song Y F, Zhang J 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 808 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 王遵娅, 宋亚芳, 张锦 2008 气象学报 66 808]
[27]	Li C Y, Yang H, Gu W 2008 Clim. Environ. Res. 13 113 (in Chinese) [李崇银, 杨辉, 顾薇 2008 气候与环境研究 13 113]
[28]	Wang D H, Liu C J, Liu Y, Wei F Y, Zhao N, Jiang Z N, Li Y, Chen J Y, Wang Y F, Shi X H, Xu X D 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 405 (in Chinese) [王东海, 柳崇健, 刘英, 魏凤英, 赵南, 姜智娜, 李英, 陈菊英, 王亚非, 施晓晖, 徐祥德 2008 气象学报 66 405]
[29]	Tao S Y, Wei J 2008 Clim. Environ. Res. 13 337 (in Chinese) [陶诗言, 卫捷 2008 气候与环境研究 13 337]
[30]	Zeng M J, Lu W S, Liang X Z, Wu H Y, Pu M J, Yin D P 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 1043 (in Chinese) [曾明剑, 陆维松, 梁信忠, 吴海英, 濮梅娟, 尹东屏 2008 气象学报 66 1043]
[31]	Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecasts (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-145 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报(北京:气象出版社) 第128-145页]
[32]	Chen W Y, van Den Dool H M 1997 J. Climate 10 1236
[33]	Shukla J 1981 J. Atmos. Sci. 38 2547
[34]	Mourning (translated by Lin B D, Wang S W) 1981 Weather Forecast-as A Physics Problem (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp118-128 (in Chinese) [莫宁著, 林本达,王绍武译 1981 天气预报——一个物理学的课题(北京:气象出版社) 第118-128页]
[35]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[36]	Mu M, Li J P, Chou J F, Duan W S, Wang J C 2002 Clim. Environ. Res. 7 227 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 李建平, 丑纪范, 段晚锁, 王家城 2002 气候与环境研究 7 227]
[37]	Li Z J, Ji L R 1996 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 20 290 (in Chinese) [李志锦, 纪立人 1996 大气科学 20 290]

Cited By

[1]	Charney J G, Fjortoft R, von Neumann J 1950 Tellus 2 237
[2]	Chen D H, Xue J S 2004 Acta Meteor. Sin. 62 623 (in Chinese) [陈德辉, 薛纪善 2004 气象学报 62 623]
[3]	Lorenz E N 1965 Tellus 17 321
[4]	Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
[5]	Lorenz E N 1982 Tellus 34 505
[6]	Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 50 2695]
[7]	Chou J F 2002 The Nonlinearity and Complexity in Atmospheric Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp149-166 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2002 大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京:气象出版社) 第149-166页]
[8]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 物理学报 50 606]
[9]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese) [何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 969]
[10]	Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 4961 (in Chinese) [汪萍, 戴新刚 2005 物理学报 54 4961]
[11]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R 1987 Mon. Wea. Rev. 115 1825
[12]	Blackmon M L, Lee Y H Wallace J M, Hsu H H 1984 J. Atmos. Sci. 41 981
[13]	Blackmon M L, Lee Y H, Wallace J M 1984 J. Atmos. Sci. 41 961
[14]	Plaut G, Vautard R 1994 J. Atmos. Sci. 51 210
[15]	Li J P, Chou J F 1997 Sci. China (Ser. D) 27 89 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丑纪范 1997 中国科学(D辑) 27 89]
[16]	Chen B H, Li J P, Ding R Q 2006 Sci. China (Ser. D) 36 1068 (in Chinese) [陈宝花, 李建平,丁瑞强 2006 中国科学(D辑) 36 1068]
[17]	Sun G W, Xin F, Chen B M, He J H 2008 Plateau Meteor (Suppl.) 27 64 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 信飞, 陈伯民, 何金海 2008 高原气象(增刊) 27 64]
[18]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[19]	Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6640 (in Chinese) [王启光, 侯威, 郑志海, 高荣 2009 物理学报 58 6640]
[20]	Chou J F, Ren H L 2006 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 17 240 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 任宏利 2006 应用气象学报 17 240]
[21]	Chou J F, Xie Z H, Wang S G 2006 Military Meteorology and Hydrology 4 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 谢志辉, 王式功 2006 军事气象水文 4]
[22]	Sun G W, Xin F, Kong C Y, Chen B M, He J H 2010 Plateau Meteor. 29 1142 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 信飞, 孔春燕, 陈伯民, 何金海 2010 高原气象 29 1142]
[23]	Sun G W, Kong C Y, Xin F, Chen B M, He J H 2011 Plateau Meteor. 30 594 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 孔春燕, 信飞, 陈伯民, 何金海 2011 高原气象 30 594]
[24]	Li J P, Zhu J L 2010 Acta Meteror. Sin. 24 397
[25]	Wang G L, Yang P C, Mao Y Q 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 714 (in Chinese) [王革丽, 杨培才, 毛宇清 2008 物理学报 57 714]
[26]	Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Song Y F, Zhang J 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 808 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 王遵娅, 宋亚芳, 张锦 2008 气象学报 66 808]
[27]	Li C Y, Yang H, Gu W 2008 Clim. Environ. Res. 13 113 (in Chinese) [李崇银, 杨辉, 顾薇 2008 气候与环境研究 13 113]
[28]	Wang D H, Liu C J, Liu Y, Wei F Y, Zhao N, Jiang Z N, Li Y, Chen J Y, Wang Y F, Shi X H, Xu X D 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 405 (in Chinese) [王东海, 柳崇健, 刘英, 魏凤英, 赵南, 姜智娜, 李英, 陈菊英, 王亚非, 施晓晖, 徐祥德 2008 气象学报 66 405]
[29]	Tao S Y, Wei J 2008 Clim. Environ. Res. 13 337 (in Chinese) [陶诗言, 卫捷 2008 气候与环境研究 13 337]
[30]	Zeng M J, Lu W S, Liang X Z, Wu H Y, Pu M J, Yin D P 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 1043 (in Chinese) [曾明剑, 陆维松, 梁信忠, 吴海英, 濮梅娟, 尹东屏 2008 气象学报 66 1043]
[31]	Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecasts (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-145 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报(北京:气象出版社) 第128-145页]
[32]	Chen W Y, van Den Dool H M 1997 J. Climate 10 1236
[33]	Shukla J 1981 J. Atmos. Sci. 38 2547
[34]	Mourning (translated by Lin B D, Wang S W) 1981 Weather Forecast-as A Physics Problem (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp118-128 (in Chinese) [莫宁著, 林本达,王绍武译 1981 天气预报——一个物理学的课题(北京:气象出版社) 第118-128页]
[35]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[36]	Mu M, Li J P, Chou J F, Duan W S, Wang J C 2002 Clim. Environ. Res. 7 227 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 李建平, 丑纪范, 段晚锁, 王家城 2002 气候与环境研究 7 227]
[37]	Li Z J, Ji L R 1996 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 20 290 (in Chinese) [李志锦, 纪立人 1996 大气科学 20 290]

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Vol. 61, Issue 10 - 2012-05-20

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