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In view of the chaotic characteristic in road traffic flow and the actual traffic condition that cannot be comprehensively reflected by single traffic parameter, a fusion algorithm of multi-parameters for traffic condition forecasting, with the consideration of the relationship between multiple parameters, is proposed. This algorithm is based on the reconstruction of phase space. According to Bayesian estimation theory, the multiple traffic parameters are optimally fused into phase points in the same phase space. Accordingly, the phase space information increases and the phase points are closer to dynamical behavior of the traffic system. On the basis, by using the multi-parameter chaos prediction method, the tendency of dynamic systems from different aspects is described, with reference to the method of predicting single parameter chaotic time series. The experimental results confirm that more features of real traffic condition are reflected by fusing multiple traffic parameters. The multi-parameters forecasting algorithm reduces the prediction error and improves the equalizer coefficients compared with the results generated from single parameter prediction. That is to say, the prediction method used in this paper is effective and accurate for predicting traffic condition based on multiple traffic parameters.
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Keywords:
- traffic parameter /
- traffic condition /
- prediction /
- reconstruction of phase space
[1] Tang T Q, Huang H J, Shang H Y 2010 Phys. Lett. A 374 1668
[2] Tang T Q, Li C Y, Huang H J 2010 Phys. Lett. A 374 3951
[3] Peng G H, Cai X H, Liu C Q, Cao B F 2011 Lett Phys. Lett. A 375 2153
[4] Li M H, Sun D H, Tu P 2008 J. Tran. Sys. Eng. Infom. Tech. 6 73 (in Chinese) [李梅红, 孙棣华, 涂平 2008 交通运输工程与信息学报 6 73]
[5] Zhou Y D, Ma H, Lü W Y, Wang H Q 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6809 (in Chinese) [周永道, 马洪, 吕王勇, 王会琦 2007 物理学报 56 6809]
[6] Zang L L, Jia L, Yang L C, Liu T 2007 China Journal of Highway and Transport 20 95 (in Chinese) [臧利林, 贾 磊, 杨立才, 刘 涛 2007 中国公路学报 20 95]
[7] Innamaa S 2005 Transportation 32 649
[8] Tseng F M, Yu H C, Tzeng G H 2001 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 67 291
[9] Liu X W, Fang X M, Qin Z H, Ye C, Xie M 2011 J. Netw. Syst. Manage 19 427
[10] Karunasinghe D S K, Liong S Y 2006 J. Hydrol. 323 92
[11] Wang H, Zhu M 2003 Journal of Southeast University (English Ed.) 19 414
[12] Peng G H 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 3824 (in Chinese) [彭光含 2010 物理学报 59 3824]
[13] Takens F 1981 Lect. Notes Math. 898 361
[14] Kennel M B, Brown R, Abarbanel H D I 1992 Phys. Rev. A 45 3403
[15] Lu S, Wang H Y 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 572 (in Chinese) [卢 山, 王海燕 2006 物理学报 54 572]
[16] Zhang Y, Guan W 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 756 (in Chinese) [张 勇, 关 伟 2009 物理学报 58 756]
[17] Reinhart J, Wolfgang B 2006 Exper. Brain Res. 174 528
[18] Cong R, Liu S L, Ma R 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 7487 (in Chinese) [丛 蕊, 刘树林, 马锐 2008 物理学报 57 7487]
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[1] Tang T Q, Huang H J, Shang H Y 2010 Phys. Lett. A 374 1668
[2] Tang T Q, Li C Y, Huang H J 2010 Phys. Lett. A 374 3951
[3] Peng G H, Cai X H, Liu C Q, Cao B F 2011 Lett Phys. Lett. A 375 2153
[4] Li M H, Sun D H, Tu P 2008 J. Tran. Sys. Eng. Infom. Tech. 6 73 (in Chinese) [李梅红, 孙棣华, 涂平 2008 交通运输工程与信息学报 6 73]
[5] Zhou Y D, Ma H, Lü W Y, Wang H Q 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6809 (in Chinese) [周永道, 马洪, 吕王勇, 王会琦 2007 物理学报 56 6809]
[6] Zang L L, Jia L, Yang L C, Liu T 2007 China Journal of Highway and Transport 20 95 (in Chinese) [臧利林, 贾 磊, 杨立才, 刘 涛 2007 中国公路学报 20 95]
[7] Innamaa S 2005 Transportation 32 649
[8] Tseng F M, Yu H C, Tzeng G H 2001 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 67 291
[9] Liu X W, Fang X M, Qin Z H, Ye C, Xie M 2011 J. Netw. Syst. Manage 19 427
[10] Karunasinghe D S K, Liong S Y 2006 J. Hydrol. 323 92
[11] Wang H, Zhu M 2003 Journal of Southeast University (English Ed.) 19 414
[12] Peng G H 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 3824 (in Chinese) [彭光含 2010 物理学报 59 3824]
[13] Takens F 1981 Lect. Notes Math. 898 361
[14] Kennel M B, Brown R, Abarbanel H D I 1992 Phys. Rev. A 45 3403
[15] Lu S, Wang H Y 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 572 (in Chinese) [卢 山, 王海燕 2006 物理学报 54 572]
[16] Zhang Y, Guan W 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 756 (in Chinese) [张 勇, 关 伟 2009 物理学报 58 756]
[17] Reinhart J, Wolfgang B 2006 Exper. Brain Res. 174 528
[18] Cong R, Liu S L, Ma R 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 7487 (in Chinese) [丛 蕊, 刘树林, 马锐 2008 物理学报 57 7487]
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