Characteristics of forecast errors in the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model in winter

Wang Hao; Zheng Zhi-Hai; Yu Hai-Peng; Huang Jian-Ping; Ji Ming-Xia

doi:10.7498/aps.63.099202

Abstract

By using the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC_AGCM) for the second generation monthly dynamic extended range system and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data accumulated during 1982-2010, the model forecast errors in winter temperature prediction and their relationship with external forcing factors are analyzed. Result indicates that the model can well reproduce the variation trends of winter temperature over Eurasia region, and the main interannual variability pattern of winter temperature over East Asian monsoon domain can be successfully presented. It reveals that the model has acceptable performances in winter temperature prediction over East Asian monsoon domain, while the forecast errors are still considerable. In spatial distribution, the forecast errors over lands are larger than those over oceans. Meanwhile, the errors at high latitudes are larger than at low latitudes, and they are also closely related to altitude. The principal components of forecast errors have significant association with the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration over some key regions, it is shown that the response capability to external forcings is insufficient. This may provide a valuable reference for improving the prediction skill of winter temperature for East Asian monsoon domain, in combination with the model response to external forcings.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
Key laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
Meteorology Department of 94195 PLA, Lintao 730500, China
Funds: Project supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201206009), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105070, 41005051), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955301), and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. IRT1018).

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Cited By

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese)[陈明行, 纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[3]
[4]
[5]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[6]
[7]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 969]
[8]	Dai X G, Pu Y F, Wang P 2011 Adv. Meteor. Sci. Technol. 1 26 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 浦一芬, 汪萍 2011 气象科技进展 1 26]
[9]
[10]	Tibaldi S, Palmer T N, Brankovic C, U Cubasch 1990 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 116 835
[11]
[12]
[13]	Anderson J L, Van den Dool H M 1994 Mon. Wea. Rev. 122 507
[14]	Vitart F 2004 Mon Wea Rev 132 2761
[15]
[16]	Seo K H, Schemm J K E, Jones C, Moorthi S 2005 Climate Dyn. 25 265
[17]
[18]
[19]	He W P, Wang L, Wan S Q, Liao L J, He T 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119201 (in Chinese)[何文平, 王柳, 万仕全, 廖乐建, 何涛 2012 物理学报 61 119201]
[20]	Zheng Z H 2013 Adv Meteor Sci Technol. 3 25 (in Chinese)[郑志海 2013 气象科技进展 3 25]
[21]
[22]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P, Chou J F 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2389 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰, 李建平, 丑纪范 2004 物理学报 53 2389]
[23]
[24]
[25]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 3258 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2004 物理学报 53 3258]
[26]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese)[封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 物理学报 50 606]
[27]
[28]	Miyakoda K, Sirutis J, Ploshay J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2363
[29]
[30]	Smith T M, Livezey R E 1999 J. Climate 12 273
[31]
[32]	Bennett A F, Leslie L M 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 453
[33]
[34]	Schemm J E, Faller A J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2402
[35]
[36]
[37]	Saha S 1992 Mon. Wea. Rev. 120 345
[38]
[39]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China A 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[40]
[41]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[42]
[43]	Huang J P, Chou J F, Yi Y H 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 483 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 丑纪范, 衣育红 1989 气象学报 47 483]
[44]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China B 2 216 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 王绍武 1991 中国科学 2 216]
[45]
[46]	Huang J P, Yi Y H 1991 Sci. China B 3 331 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 衣育红 1991 中国科学 3 331]
[47]
[48]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 119 547
[49]
[50]	Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese)[鲍名, 倪允琪, 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[51]
[52]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2006 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 64 315 (in Chinese)[任宏利, 丑纪范 2006 气象学报 64 315]
[53]
[54]
[55]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[56]
[57]	Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteor. Sinica 10 569 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 10 569]
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[59]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Chou J, Ren H L 2010 J. Appl. Meteor Sci. 21 139 (in Chinese )[郑志海, 封国林, 丑纪范, 任宏利 2010 应用气象学报 21 139]
[60]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 物理学报 61 199203]
[61]
[62]
[63]	Zheng Z H, Huang J P, Feng G L, Chou J F 2013 Sci. China A 6 878
[64]	Yu H, Huang J P, Chou J F 2013 Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press)
[65]
[66]
[67]	Barker T W, Horel J D 1989 Mon. Wea. Rev. 117 2835
[68]
[69]	Jung T 2005 Quart. J. Roy Meteor Soc. 131 1045
[70]	Zhang D M, Ji L R, Li J L 1997 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 21 141 (in Chinese)[张道民, 纪立人, 李金龙 1997 大气科学 21 141]
[71]
[72]	Liu H Z, Teng Q B 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 143 (in Chinese)[刘还珠, 滕俏彬 1999 气象学报 57 143]
[73]
[74]
[75]	Zhong J, Huang Si X, Fei J F Du H D 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 1169 (in Chinese)[钟剑, 黄思训, 费建芳杜华栋 2011 大气科学 35 1169]
[76]	Qiu X X, Wang D Y, Chen B F 2012 Meteor Mon. 8 526 (in Chinese)[邱学兴, 王东勇, 陈宝峰 2012 气象 8 526]
[77]
[78]
[79]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109202 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 物理学报 60 109202]
[80]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Qian Z H, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 钱忠华, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 109203]
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[84]
[85]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 1269 (in Chinese)[张宗婕, 钱维宏 2012 大气科学 36 1269]
[86]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 559 (in Chinese)[龚道溢, 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]
[87]
[88]
[89]	Li Y, Lu R Y, He J H 2007 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 31 505 (in Chinese)[李勇, 陆日宇, 何金海 2007 大气科学 31 505]
[90]
[91]	Wang B, Wu Z W, Chang C P, Liu J 2010 J. Climate 23 1495
[92]	Chen P Y, Ni Y Q, Yin Y H 2001 J. Trop. Meteor 17 371 (in Chinese) [陈佩燕, 倪允琪, 殷永红 2001 热带气象学报 17 371]
[93]
[94]	Wu B Y, Bian L G, Zhang R H 2004 Chinese Journal of Polar Research 16 211 (in Chinese)[武炳义, 卞林根, 张人禾 2004 极地研究 16 211]
[95]
[96]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1988 Plateau Meteor 7 264 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 丑纪范 1988 高原气象 7 264]
[97]
[98]	Huang J P Gao J D, Chou J F 1990 Plateau Meteor 9 88 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 郜吉东, 丑纪范 1990 高原气象 9 88]
[99]
[100]
[101]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[102]	Reichler T J, Roads J O 2003 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 10 211
[103]
[104]
[105]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[106]
[107]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Climate Dyn. 32 123
[108]
[109]	Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D 1996 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77 437
[110]
[111]	Huang J Y 1989 Meteor Mon. 15 3 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1989 气象 15 3]
[112]	Shi N 2009 Meteorological statistical forecast(Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp247-251 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京:气象出版社) 第247251页]
[113]
[114]	58 Wu Z W, Li J P, Jiang Z H, He J H 2011 Climate Dyn. 37 1661
[115]
[116]
[117]	59 Liu J P, Curry J A, Wang H J, Song M R, Horton R M 2012 Proc. Natl. Acad Sci. 109 4074
[118]
[119]	60 Wu B Y, Su J Z, Zhang R H 2011 Chin. Sci. Bull. 56 235 (in Chinese) [武炳义, 苏京志, 张人禾 2011 科学通报 56 235]
[120]
[121]	Yang L N 2013 M. S. Thesis (Beijing: Chinese Academy Meteorological Sciences) (in Chinese) [杨柳妮 2013 硕士学位论文(北京: 中国气象科学研究院)]

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Vol. 63, Issue 9 - 2014-05-05

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