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对数值模式预测误差进行相似预报进而订正模式预报结果，是提高模式预报水平的有效手段之一. 本文从数值模式预测误差场存在相似性的角度出发，研究了长江中下游汛期降水逐年模式误差场间的相似性及其可预报性，探讨了数值模式预测误差在历史资料中的相似信息量，发现利用相似误差订正可以明显提高模式预报水平. 进一步对历史模式预测误差场进行经验正交函数（EOF）分解，着重研究了误差场前三个特征向量的空间分布及其时间系数演化规律，发现对各分量分别进行相似预报可以简化预报对象，并且针对性更强，可以提高其潜在预报水平. 在研究数值模式预测误差场相似性的基础上，定义了数值模式预测误差的相似可预报度，用以衡量逐年模式预测误差的可预测性，发现模式预测误差场前三个分量的相似可预报度明显高于原始模式误差场，揭示出有针对性地分别预报模式预测误差各分量的潜在应用价值.This paper reports an effective method to improve the forecasting level of the numerical model through analogue prediction of errors and correction of the results. The analogy of the precipitation model errors and its predictability are studied for the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer time in the perspective of analogy, which exists in the error field in the forecasting numerical model. The content of the analogy is also investigated according to the historical data. It is found that the forecasting errors could be improved remarkably by analogue error prediction over the regions researched in summer time. The forecasting error field is decomposed by EOF, and then the geographic distribution and time coefficient evolution of the first three principal components are analyzed. The prediction of the precipitation could be simplified by analogue forecasting of the principal components separately, and it is more targeted to improve the potential forecasting level. On the basis of the analogy of the forecasting error field, its analogue predictability is defined to measure the predictability of the errors. The analogue predictability of the first three principal components is significantly higher than that of the original field. It has potential applications to precipitation predication by forecasting the error field principal components.
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Keywords:
- summer precipitation /
- forecasting errors of a model /
- analogy /
- predictability
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[2] Wu G X, Liu H Z 1995 Chinese Journal of Atomspheric Sciences 19 422 (in Chinese)[吴国雄, 刘还珠 1995 大气科学 19 422]
[3] Wei F Y 2006 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 30 202 (in Chinese)[魏凤英 2006 大气科学 30 202]
[4] Feng G L, CAO H X 1998 Journal of Applied Meterological Science 9 119 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴 1998 应用气象学报 9 119]
[5] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Non-linear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of theObserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) pp135-148 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社)第135–148页]
[6] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[7] Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[8] Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. 15 882
[9] Ke Z J, Zhang P Q, Dong W J, Wang J 2009 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 33 994 (in Chinese)[柯宗建, 张培群, 董文杰, 王瑾 2009 大气科学 33 994]
[10] Chao J P, Guo Y F, Xin R N 1982 Meteor. Soc. Japan 60 282
[11] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[12] Van H M 1994 Tellus 46A 314
[13] Chou J F 1974 Science in China (Ser. A) 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学(A辑) 6 635]
[14] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorology 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
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[16] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076
[17] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[18] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏风英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[19] Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范 2006 物理学报 55 4388]
[20] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[21] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Advances in Earth Science 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[22] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Science in China (Ser. D) 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学(D辑) 37 988]
[23] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海, 黄建平, 任宏利 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[24] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese)[杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[25] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Sheng B Z 2012 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36 11 (in Chinese)[杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[26] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H Zhi R 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 287 (in Chinese)[王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[27] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zhi R, Zhao J H 2012 Acta Meteor Sinica 70 789 (in Chinese)[王启光, 封国林, 支蓉, 赵俊虎 2012 气象学报 70 789]
[28] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, et al 2011 Acta Meteor Sinica 25 316
[29] Zhao J H, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Yang J, Gong Z Q 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 1069 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 王启光, 杨杰, 龚志强 2011 大气科学 35 1069]
[30] Hamill T M, Whitaker J S 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev 133 3132
[31] Mutemi J N 2007 Meteorol Atmos Phys 95 87
[32] Li J P, Ding R Q 2008 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 975 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丁瑞强 2008 大气科学 32 975]
[33] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 67 241 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009气象学报 67 241]
[34] Shi N 1992 The Multianalysis Method of Meteorological Research and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p210-227 (in Chinese) [施能 1992 气象统计预报中的多元分析方法(北京: 气象出版社)第210–227页]
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[1] Chen L X 1984 Acta oceanologica Sinica 6 744 (in Chinese) [陈隆勋 1984 海洋学报 6 744]
[2] Wu G X, Liu H Z 1995 Chinese Journal of Atomspheric Sciences 19 422 (in Chinese)[吴国雄, 刘还珠 1995 大气科学 19 422]
[3] Wei F Y 2006 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 30 202 (in Chinese)[魏凤英 2006 大气科学 30 202]
[4] Feng G L, CAO H X 1998 Journal of Applied Meterological Science 9 119 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴 1998 应用气象学报 9 119]
[5] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Non-linear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of theObserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) pp135-148 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社)第135–148页]
[6] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[7] Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[8] Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. 15 882
[9] Ke Z J, Zhang P Q, Dong W J, Wang J 2009 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 33 994 (in Chinese)[柯宗建, 张培群, 董文杰, 王瑾 2009 大气科学 33 994]
[10] Chao J P, Guo Y F, Xin R N 1982 Meteor. Soc. Japan 60 282
[11] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[12] Van H M 1994 Tellus 46A 314
[13] Chou J F 1974 Science in China (Ser. A) 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学(A辑) 6 635]
[14] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorology 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[15] Cao H X 1993 Science in China Ser. B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学(B辑) 23 104]
[16] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076
[17] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[18] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏风英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[19] Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范 2006 物理学报 55 4388]
[20] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[21] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Advances in Earth Science 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[22] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Science in China (Ser. D) 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学(D辑) 37 988]
[23] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海, 黄建平, 任宏利 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[24] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese)[杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[25] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Sheng B Z 2012 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36 11 (in Chinese)[杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[26] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H Zhi R 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 287 (in Chinese)[王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[27] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zhi R, Zhao J H 2012 Acta Meteor Sinica 70 789 (in Chinese)[王启光, 封国林, 支蓉, 赵俊虎 2012 气象学报 70 789]
[28] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, et al 2011 Acta Meteor Sinica 25 316
[29] Zhao J H, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Yang J, Gong Z Q 2011 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 35 1069 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 王启光, 杨杰, 龚志强 2011 大气科学 35 1069]
[30] Hamill T M, Whitaker J S 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev 133 3132
[31] Mutemi J N 2007 Meteorol Atmos Phys 95 87
[32] Li J P, Ding R Q 2008 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 975 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丁瑞强 2008 大气科学 32 975]
[33] Ding R Q, Li J P 2009 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 67 241 (in Chinese) [丁瑞强, 李建平 2009气象学报 67 241]
[34] Shi N 1992 The Multianalysis Method of Meteorological Research and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p210-227 (in Chinese) [施能 1992 气象统计预报中的多元分析方法(北京: 气象出版社)第210–227页]
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