Predictive reliability of summer precipitation in China based on error distribution of numerical model

Yang Jie; Gong Zhi-Qiang; Zhao Jun-Hu; Xu Xia-Zhen

doi:10.7498/aps.63.149202

Abstract

In this paper, we made some statistical analyses on precipitation prediction errors of coupled global climate model of National Climate Center based on CPC merged analysis of precipitation. Through the statistics of the forecast results of summer precipitation in many years and the errors, we find that the distribution of the model prediction errors satisfies the Gaussian distribution. Based on the Gaussian distribution characteristics, the ability to predict the mode for summer precipitation in China can be analyzed and compared. The forecast performance of the dynamic-statistics scheme is significantly better than that of system error correction scheme of the model. The dynamic-statistics optimal combination of factor revise is corrected, relative to error distribution pattern of the system revised forecast, and there are obtained two kinds of error distribution characteristics: 1) improvement of the amplitude; 2) improvement of the displacement. Based on the statistical characteristics of the prediction error, measure of the credibility of model forecast results is proposed to quantitatively assess the credibility of the numerical model forecast results in different regions. Taking the summer precipitations in 2012 and 2013 for example, we analyze the credibility of actual observations, prediction and drought or flood level. Comparing actual observations and prediction, we find that there is a good consistency where the credibility of them is larger, while there are many bad predictions in the region where the credibility of them is smaller. What is more, compared with other reliability test method, the credibility of the abnormal precipitation forecast by this method is more accurate, showing the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
Jiangsu Climate Center, Jiangsu Meteorological Administration, Nanjing 210000, China;
2.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Funds: Project supported by the Special Scientifc Research Project for Public Interest of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201306021, GYHY201106016), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952, 41375069), and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955902, 2013CB430204).

References

[1]	Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, Zhou L T 2006 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 30 730 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 周连童 2006 大气科学 30 730]
[2]	Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chin. Sci. Bull. 46 890 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 890]
[3]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[4]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W 1978 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1771
[5]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 93 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 93]
[6]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[7]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[8]	Chou J F, Ren H L 2006 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 17 240 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 任宏利 2006 应用气象学报 17 240]
[9]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1987 Sci. China B 17 903 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1987 中国科学 (B辑) 17 903]
[10]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[11]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[12]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1992 Sci. China B 35 207
[13]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[14]	Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范 2006 物理学报 55 4388]
[15]	Gong J D, Chou J F 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 392 (in Chinese) [龚建东, 丑纪范 1999 高原气象 18 392]
[16]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 1101 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学(D辑) 37 1101]
[17]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[18]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 (B辑) 23 104]
[19]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[20]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏凤英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[21]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Chin. Phys. 10 1004
[22]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[23]	Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 25 316
[24]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 物理学报 61 149204]
[25]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[26]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7367 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7367]
[27]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Yang J, Zhi R 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 1021 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰, 支蓉, 王启光 2012 气象学报 70 1021]
[28]	Feng G L, Zhao J H, Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Yang J, Xiong K G 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 656 (in Chinese) [封国林, 赵俊虎, 支蓉, 龚志强, 郑志海, 杨杰, 熊开国 2013 应用气象学报 24 656]
[29]	Chen L J, Li W J, Zhang P J, Wang J G 2003 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 14 648 (in Chinese) [陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 王锦贵 2003 应用气象学报 14 648]
[30]	Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Tropical Meteorol. 26 483 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 483]
[31]	Wei F Y 2011 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 22 1 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2011 应用气象学报 22 1]
[32]	Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2900 (in Chinese) [范可, 王会军, Choi Young-Jean 2007 科学通报 52 2900]
[33]	Ji F, Zhao J H, Shen Q, Zhi R, Gong Z Q 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 059201 (in Chinese) [季飞, 赵俊虎, 申茜, 支蓉, 龚志强 2014 物理学报 63 059201]
[34]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 支蓉 2013 物理学报 62 099206]
[35]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. B 12 1076
[36]	Zhang Z S, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
[37]	Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[38]	Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. B 15 882
[39]	Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 6 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉, 王兰宁, 刘益民, 史学丽, 张祖强, 刘一鸣, 胡国权, 党鸿雁, 张芳, 陈丽娟, 孙除荣, 赵其庚, 董敏 2005 应用气象学报 6 1]
[40]	Li W J, Chen L J 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 338 (in Chinese) [李维京, 陈丽娟 1999 气象学报 57 338]
[41]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 9 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 9 178]
[42]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[43]	Li F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 183 (in Chinese) [李芳 2012 气象学报 70 183]
[44]	Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[45]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林, 杨杰, 万仕全, 侯威, 支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[46]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

Cited By

[1]	Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, Zhou L T 2006 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 30 730 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 周连童 2006 大气科学 30 730]
[2]	Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chin. Sci. Bull. 46 890 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 890]
[3]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 物理学报 60 029204]
[4]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W 1978 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1771
[5]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 93 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 93]
[6]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[7]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[8]	Chou J F, Ren H L 2006 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 17 240 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 任宏利 2006 应用气象学报 17 240]
[9]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1987 Sci. China B 17 903 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1987 中国科学 (B辑) 17 903]
[10]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[11]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[12]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1992 Sci. China B 35 207
[13]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[14]	Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范 2006 物理学报 55 4388]
[15]	Gong J D, Chou J F 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 392 (in Chinese) [龚建东, 丑纪范 1999 高原气象 18 392]
[16]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 1101 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学(D辑) 37 1101]
[17]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7359]
[18]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 (B辑) 23 104]
[19]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[20]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏凤英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[21]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Chin. Phys. 10 1004
[22]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[23]	Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 25 316
[24]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 物理学报 61 149204]
[25]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[26]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7367 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 物理学报 58 7367]
[27]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Yang J, Zhi R 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 1021 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰, 支蓉, 王启光 2012 气象学报 70 1021]
[28]	Feng G L, Zhao J H, Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Yang J, Xiong K G 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 656 (in Chinese) [封国林, 赵俊虎, 支蓉, 龚志强, 郑志海, 杨杰, 熊开国 2013 应用气象学报 24 656]
[29]	Chen L J, Li W J, Zhang P J, Wang J G 2003 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 14 648 (in Chinese) [陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 王锦贵 2003 应用气象学报 14 648]
[30]	Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Tropical Meteorol. 26 483 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 483]
[31]	Wei F Y 2011 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 22 1 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2011 应用气象学报 22 1]
[32]	Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2900 (in Chinese) [范可, 王会军, Choi Young-Jean 2007 科学通报 52 2900]
[33]	Ji F, Zhao J H, Shen Q, Zhi R, Gong Z Q 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 059201 (in Chinese) [季飞, 赵俊虎, 申茜, 支蓉, 龚志强 2014 物理学报 63 059201]
[34]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 支蓉 2013 物理学报 62 099206]
[35]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. B 12 1076
[36]	Zhang Z S, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
[37]	Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[38]	Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. B 15 882
[39]	Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 6 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉, 王兰宁, 刘益民, 史学丽, 张祖强, 刘一鸣, 胡国权, 党鸿雁, 张芳, 陈丽娟, 孙除荣, 赵其庚, 董敏 2005 应用气象学报 6 1]
[40]	Li W J, Chen L J 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 338 (in Chinese) [李维京, 陈丽娟 1999 气象学报 57 338]
[41]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 9 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 9 178]
[42]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[43]	Li F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 183 (in Chinese) [李芳 2012 气象学报 70 183]
[44]	Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[45]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林, 杨杰, 万仕全, 侯威, 支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[46]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 664]

[1]	Guo Fu-Cheng, Li Cui, Li Yan-Zhong. Analysis of influence of spatial distribution error of directional infrared light on temperature field of cryogenic targets. Acta Physica Sinica, 2022, 71(11): 110702. doi: 10.7498/aps.71.20212351
[2]	Mao Xiao-Li, Xiao Shao-Rong, Liu Qing-Quan, Li Min, Zhang Jia-Hong. Fluid dynamic analysis on solar heating error of radiosonde humidity measurement. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(14): 144701. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.144701
[3]	Wang Qi-Guang, Su Hai-Jing, Zhi Rong, Feng Ai-Xia. The analogy and predictability of the forecasting model error for the precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(11): 119202. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.119202
[4]	Han Min, Xu Mei-Ling. A hybrid prediction model of multivariate chaotic time series based on error correction. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(12): 120510. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.120510
[5]	Wang Xin-Ying, Han Min, Wang Ya-Nan. Analysis of noisy chaotic time series prediction error. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(5): 050504. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.050504
[6]	Jiao Rong-Zhen, Ding Tian, Wang Wen-Ji, Ma Hai-Qiang. Analysis statistical fluctuation of passive untrusted source for quantum key distribution system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(18): 180302. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.180302
[7]	Zhao Jun-Hu, Yang Jie, Gong Zhi-Qiang, Zhi Rong. The experiments of transseasonal prediction by combining together the dynamical and statistical methods of the geopotential height fields on the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(9): 099206. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.099206
[8]	Su Hai-Jing, Wang Qi-Guang, Yang Jie, Qian Zhong-Hua. Error correction on summer model precipitation of China based on the singular value decomposition. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(10): 109202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.109202
[9]	Yan Zhen-Gang, Lin Ying-Lu, Yang Juan, Li Zhen-Hua, Bian Bao-Min. The distribution functions of characteristic quantities for random noise signal of photodetector. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(20): 200502. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.200502
[10]	Lü Jin-Guang, Liang Jing-Qiu, Liang Zhong-Zhu. Error synthesis and statistical analysis on stepped mirror array by Monte Carlo method. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(22): 220701. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.220701
[11]	Xiong Kai-Guo, Zhao Jun-Hu, Feng Guo-Lin, Huang Jian-Ping, Hu Jing-Guo. A new method of analoguedynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation based on analogue prediction principal components of model errors. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(14): 149204. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.149204
[12]	Yang Juan, Bian Bao-Min, Yan Zhen-Gang, Wang Chun-Yong, Li Zhen-Hua. Fractal characteristics of characteristic parameter statistical distributions of typical random signals. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(10): 100506. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.100506
[13]	Ran Ling-Kun, Zhou Yu-Shu, Yang Wen-Xia. Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(9): 099201. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.099201
[14]	Feng Guo-Lin, Yang Jie, Wang Qi-Guang, Zhi Rong. Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(2): 029204. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.029204
[15]	Liu Tao, Huang Gao-Ming, Wang Xue-Song, Xiao Shun-Ping. Statistics of the instantaneous polarization in Weibull——distributed fields-the same shape parameter case. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(5): 3140-3153. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.3140
[16]	Han Fei, Cui Jun-Zhi, Yu Yan. Prediction on mechanical parameters of inconsistently random composites by statistical second-order two-scale method. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(13): 1-S7. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.1
[17]	Wei Zhi-Yong, Zang Li-Hui, Li Ming, Fan Wo, Xu Yu-Jie. Fragmentation in DNA double-strand breaks. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(10): 4955-4960. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.4955
[18]	LI MING, MAI ZHEN-HONG, CUI SHU-PAN. STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL DIFFRACTION IN NEARLY PERFECT CRYSTALS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1994, 43(1): 84-90. doi: 10.7498/aps.43.84
[19]	HE LIN-SHENG, JIANG HAI-HE. FEATURES OF EVOLUTION FOR STATISTICAL DISTRIBU-TION OF PHOTON IN TWO-PHOTON JAYNES-CUMMINGS MODEL. Acta Physica Sinica, 1991, 40(3): 393-398. doi: 10.7498/aps.40.393
[20]	LIU ZHENG-DONG, LIU SAN-QIU. SQUEEZING AND PHOTON STATISTICS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1991, 40(8): 1263-1268. doi: 10.7498/aps.40.1263

Catalog

Vol. 63, Issue 14 - 2014-07-20

Metrics

Abstract views: 6250
PDF Downloads: 587
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板