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基于帕尔默干旱指数 (Palmer drought severity index, PDSI) 中国数据库和中国160个站点的月降水资料, 运用趋势分析、对比分析和EOF等方法, 对1961–2010年间中国旱涝时空演化特征进行了分析. 结果表明: 春季的PDSI的年代际空间分布特征与PDSI 的年代际空间分布特征相似; 夏季和秋季的PDSI的地区差异比较明显, 尤其是秋季更为明显. 从时间演化上来看, 中国华北、东北、西南地区的变干趋势较明显, 另外变湿比较明显的区域为西北西部. 对1961–2010年夏季的PDSI进行经验正交函数 (EOF) 分析, 可以发现, 20世纪80年代以来, 中国夏季干旱和洪涝更加频繁, 且旱涝强度也增加, 尤其是华北、西南、东北地区的干旱和华东地区的洪涝.Based on the global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data and monthly precipitation data from China, using linear trend analysis, comparative analysis and EOF methods, the spatiotemporal evolution of the droughts and floods over China during 1961–2010 has been analyzed. Results show that: The decadal spatial distribution of PDSI in spring is similar to that in year-round. The regional differences of PDSI in summer and autumn are obvious, especially in autumn. According to the linear analysis, climate in North China, Northeast China, Southwest China, South China and East China is becoming dry obviously; while the west of Northwest China is becoming wet. The PDSI in summer from 1961 to 2010 is also analyzed by experience orthogonal function (EOF). Results show that droughts and floods occur frequently in China since the 1980s and the intensity of droughts and floods is also increased, especially droughts in the North China, Southwest China, Northeast China and floods in East China.
[1] Palmer W C 1965 Meteorological Drought Research Paper 19, No.45 Weather Bureau, Washington D C, 1965 58
[2] Dai A, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophysical Research Lett. 25 3367
[3] Bell G D, Janowiak J E 1995 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76 681
[4] Zhang Y, Chen F H, Gou X H, Jin L Y, Tian Q H, Wang Y S, Peng J F 2007 Acta Geographica Sinica 62 1142 (in Chinese) [张永, 陈发虎, 勾晓华, 靳立亚, 田沁花, 王有生, 彭剑峰 2007 地理学报 62 1142 ]
[5] Wei J, Tao S Y, Zhang Q Y 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 91 (in Chinese) [卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云 2003 地理学报 58 91 ]
[6] Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, Zhou L T 2006 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 30 730 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 周连童 2006 大气科学 30 730]
[7] Huang R H, Du Z C 2010 Chinese Journal of Nature 32 187 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 杜振彩 2010 自然杂志 32 187]
[8] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Science Bulletin 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 符淙斌 2006 科学通 51 2429]
[9] Ma Z G, Ren X B 2007 Advances in Climate Change Research 3 195 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 任小波 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 195]
[10] Li W J, Zhao Z G, Li X, Sun L H 2003 Arid Meteorology 21 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 赵振国, 李想, 孙林海 2003 干旱气象 21 1]
[11] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]
[12] Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[13] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 655]
[14] Shi N, Chen J Q, Tu Q P 1995 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 53 531 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞 1995 气象学报 53 531]
[15] Shi N 1996 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 54 675 (in Chinese) [施能 1996 气象学报 54 675]
[16] Shi N 2009 Meteorological statistical forecast (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p32 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第32页]
[17] Alley W M 1984 Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23 1100
[18] Karl T R, Knight R W 1985 Historical Climatology Series 3-7, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 1985
[19] Tang M C, Bai C Y, Feng S, Cai Y 1998 Plateau Meteorology 17 250 (in Chinese) [汤懋苍, 白重瑗, 冯松, 蔡英 1998 高原气象 17 250]
[20] Wang K L,Jiang H, Zhao H Y 2006 Advances in Water Science 17 164 (in Chinese) [王可丽, 江灏, 赵红岩 2006 水科学进展 17 164]
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[1] Palmer W C 1965 Meteorological Drought Research Paper 19, No.45 Weather Bureau, Washington D C, 1965 58
[2] Dai A, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophysical Research Lett. 25 3367
[3] Bell G D, Janowiak J E 1995 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76 681
[4] Zhang Y, Chen F H, Gou X H, Jin L Y, Tian Q H, Wang Y S, Peng J F 2007 Acta Geographica Sinica 62 1142 (in Chinese) [张永, 陈发虎, 勾晓华, 靳立亚, 田沁花, 王有生, 彭剑峰 2007 地理学报 62 1142 ]
[5] Wei J, Tao S Y, Zhang Q Y 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 91 (in Chinese) [卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云 2003 地理学报 58 91 ]
[6] Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, Zhou L T 2006 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 30 730 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 周连童 2006 大气科学 30 730]
[7] Huang R H, Du Z C 2010 Chinese Journal of Nature 32 187 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 杜振彩 2010 自然杂志 32 187]
[8] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Science Bulletin 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 符淙斌 2006 科学通 51 2429]
[9] Ma Z G, Ren X B 2007 Advances in Climate Change Research 3 195 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 任小波 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 195]
[10] Li W J, Zhao Z G, Li X, Sun L H 2003 Arid Meteorology 21 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 赵振国, 李想, 孙林海 2003 干旱气象 21 1]
[11] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]
[12] Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[13] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 物理学报 59 655]
[14] Shi N, Chen J Q, Tu Q P 1995 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 53 531 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞 1995 气象学报 53 531]
[15] Shi N 1996 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 54 675 (in Chinese) [施能 1996 气象学报 54 675]
[16] Shi N 2009 Meteorological statistical forecast (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p32 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第32页]
[17] Alley W M 1984 Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23 1100
[18] Karl T R, Knight R W 1985 Historical Climatology Series 3-7, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 1985
[19] Tang M C, Bai C Y, Feng S, Cai Y 1998 Plateau Meteorology 17 250 (in Chinese) [汤懋苍, 白重瑗, 冯松, 蔡英 1998 高原气象 17 250]
[20] Wang K L,Jiang H, Zhao H Y 2006 Advances in Water Science 17 164 (in Chinese) [王可丽, 江灏, 赵红岩 2006 水科学进展 17 164]
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