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电离层对无线电通信、卫星导航有重要的影响, 因此对电离层电子总含量(total electron content, TEC)的预报研究十分重要, 而目前国际上的各种经验电离层预报模型的精度只有60%左右, 不能满足实际需求. 本文提出一种新的TEC预报模型: 利用经验正交函数对TEC数据进行时空分解, 利用遗传算法结合混沌预测的思想对时间场系数进行非线性时间序列预测, 从而达到对TEC数据预报的目的. 实验结果表明, 此方法可较好地对TEC数据进行不同时间尺度的预测, 提前1, 2, 4, 7 d的预报精度分别达到0.32, 0.48, 0.68, 0.94 TECU.In the solar-terrestrial space environment, the ionosphere couples tightly with the upper magnetic layer as well as the lower middle atmosphere in various forms. Meanwhile, the ionosphere can affect radio-communication and satellite navigations, so the research on ionosphere prediction model is very important. Now, the accuracy of statistic prediction mode is about 60%, but cannot meet the practical requirements. In order to solve the problem, the prediction model of total electron content (TEC) data is achieved in three major phases: decomposition of the spatiotemporal variability of the TEC data, noise reduction of the encoded space, and time variability and the prediction, by a nonlinear forecasting technique of the time variability. Experiments show that the new prediction model is better than traditional prediction model. The prediction data shows realistic features and a reliable physical distribution, and the relative accuracies of prediction for 1, 2, 4, and 7 d obtained by our method is 0.32, 0.48, 0.68 and 0.94 TECU.
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Keywords:
- total electron content /
- empirical orthogonal functions decomposition /
- time series /
- genetic algorithm
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[12] Beckers J, Barth A, Alvarez A 2006 Ocean Sci. 16 183
[13] Guo P, Xu X, Zhang G X 2011 J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 69 947
[14] Sheng Z 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119301 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2011 物理学报 60 119301]
[15] Sheng Z, Chen J Q, Xu R H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069301 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 陈加清, 徐如海 2012 物理学报 61 069301]
[16] Sheng Z, Fang H X 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/21/2/02
[17] Wu Y Y, Hong Z J, Guo P, Zheng J 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 639
[18] Guo P, Kuo Y H, Sokolovskiy S V, Lenschow D H 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. DOI: 10.1175/2011JAS3612.1
[19] Wei M, Qin X, Wang X H, Jiang W M 2007 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 30 736 (in Chinese) [魏鸣, 秦学, 王啸华, 蒋维楣 2007 南京气象学院学报 30 736]
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[1] Yan H J 1996 The Astronomical Journal 112 1312
[2] Liu R Y, Liu G H, Wu J 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 300 (in Chinese) [刘瑞源, 刘国华, 吴健 2008 地球物理学报 51 300]
[3] Li Z G, Cheng Z Y, Feng C G 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 327 (in Chinese) [李志刚, 程宗颐, 冯初刚 2007 地球物理学报 50 327]
[4] Yue X A, Wan W X, Liu L B 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 787 (in Chinese) [乐新安, 万卫星, 刘立波 2010 地球物理学报 53 787]
[5] Everson R, Cornillon P, Sirovich L 2002 J. Phys. Ocean. 27 468
[6] Bennett A 2002 Inverse Modeling of the Ocean and the Atmosphere (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
[7] Beckers J, Rixen M 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 1839
[8] Toumazou V, Cretaux J 2001 Mon. Weath Rev. 125 1243
[9] Alvarez A 2003 J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 20 717
[10] Sheng Z, Shi H Q, Ding Y Z 2009 Adv. Ocean. Sci. 27 243 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 石汉青, 丁又专 2009 海洋科学进展 27 243]
[11] Alvarez A, Barth A, Rixen M 2005 Ocean Model. 17 325
[12] Beckers J, Barth A, Alvarez A 2006 Ocean Sci. 16 183
[13] Guo P, Xu X, Zhang G X 2011 J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 69 947
[14] Sheng Z 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119301 (in Chinese) [盛峥 2011 物理学报 60 119301]
[15] Sheng Z, Chen J Q, Xu R H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069301 (in Chinese) [盛峥, 陈加清, 徐如海 2012 物理学报 61 069301]
[16] Sheng Z, Fang H X 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/21/2/02
[17] Wu Y Y, Hong Z J, Guo P, Zheng J 2010 Chin. J. Geophys. 53 639
[18] Guo P, Kuo Y H, Sokolovskiy S V, Lenschow D H 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. DOI: 10.1175/2011JAS3612.1
[19] Wei M, Qin X, Wang X H, Jiang W M 2007 Trans. Atmos. Sci. 30 736 (in Chinese) [魏鸣, 秦学, 王啸华, 蒋维楣 2007 南京气象学院学报 30 736]
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