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Research on different time-scale prediction models for the total electron content

Sheng Zheng

Research on different time-scale prediction models for the total electron content

Sheng Zheng
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  • Abstract views:  2137
  • PDF Downloads:  753
  • Cited By: 0
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  • Received Date:  29 March 2012
  • Accepted Date:  16 May 2012
  • Published Online:  05 November 2012

Research on different time-scale prediction models for the total electron content

  • 1. Institute of Meteorology and Oceangraphy, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China;
  • 2. Sate Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Fund Project:  Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105013), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu, China (Grant No. BK2011122), and the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories, China (Grant No. 201120FSIC-03).

Abstract: In the solar-terrestrial space environment, the ionosphere couples tightly with the upper magnetic layer as well as the lower middle atmosphere in various forms. Meanwhile, the ionosphere can affect radio-communication and satellite navigations, so the research on ionosphere prediction model is very important. Now, the accuracy of statistic prediction mode is about 60%, but cannot meet the practical requirements. In order to solve the problem, the prediction model of total electron content (TEC) data is achieved in three major phases: decomposition of the spatiotemporal variability of the TEC data, noise reduction of the encoded space, and time variability and the prediction, by a nonlinear forecasting technique of the time variability. Experiments show that the new prediction model is better than traditional prediction model. The prediction data shows realistic features and a reliable physical distribution, and the relative accuracies of prediction for 1, 2, 4, and 7 d obtained by our method is 0.32, 0.48, 0.68 and 0.94 TECU.

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