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在全球气候变暖背景下1980年代中期中国西北西部气候发生了年代际突变,降水明显增加且主要是极端降水的贡献. 本文用欧洲中期预报中心再分析资料ERA-40计算了瞬变涡动、环流、水汽输送及其散度等的年代际变化并进行了分解分析. 结果表明, 1987年后大气环流年代际变化形成"东高西低"环流背景场,西风带向该区的水汽输送增加, 水汽辐合增强,其中主要是定常波水汽输送的贡献, 其结果是造成该区及周边空气水汽含量上升, 有利于降水或极端降水的增加. 夏季该区瞬变涡动增强且造成水汽辐合, 增加了降水天气出现的频率; 冬季瞬变涡动减弱, 天气过程减少, 说明降雪增加的原因应该是空气水汽含量增加, 导致降雪强度增加. 因此该区降水的增加即有中高纬度大气变暖变湿的贡献,也有瞬变涡动的动力作用. 未来西北西部降水的趋势主要取决于瞬变涡动与大气水汽含量变化的竞争．There took place an inter-decadal climate change over the west part of Northwestern China at mid-1980s. One of the significant characteristics is the increase in precipitation with more extreme rainfall or snowfall event. For understanding its mechanism our calculation focuses on the difference of the geo-potential height on 500 hPa, transient eddy activity, column water vapor content or precipitable water, moisture transport and its divergence between 1987-2000 and 1973-1986. The results show that the change in height field is favorable for the increase in moisture transport to the region with moisture convergence, leading to more water vapor over the region. Meanwhile the eddy activity became weak in wintertime and strong in summertime, leading to more synoptic processes in summertime and less in wintertime. A further decomposition shows that the increase in the transport with convergence was contributed mainly by its stationary-wave part along the west-east direction, while the transient eddy played a positive role in summertime and a negative one in wintertime for precipitation. It turns out that the increase in precipitation in the region resulted from the moisture convergence and the increase in eddy activity in summertime while the moisture convergence played a dominant role in wintertime. Besides, the warming climate also played a positive role in increasing air water-vapor content in the region since the warm air can hold more water vapors than the cold one.
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Keywords:
- Northwestern China precipitation /
- inter-decadal change /
- moisture transport /
- transient eddy
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[2] Mann M, Amman C, Bradley R, Briffa K, J ones P, Osborn T, Crowley T, Hughes M, Oppenheimer M, Overpeck J, Rutherford S, Trenberth K, Wigley T 2003 EOS 84 256
[3] Wan S, Wang L, Feng G L, He W, Wang C and Zhou G 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 5083 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 王令, 封国林, 何文平, 汪婵娟, 周国华 2009 物理学报 58 5083]
[4] Dai X G, Wang P, Chou J F 2004 Chinese Science Bulletin 48 2730
[5] Zheng B, Gu D J, Lin A L, Li C H 2007 Chin. Phys. 16 1472
[6] Wang G L, Anastasios A Tsonis 2009 Chinese Physics B 18 5091
[7] Dai X G, Wang P Zhang P Q, Chou J F 2004 Progress in Natural Science 14 598
[8] He J H, Liu Y Y, Chang Y 2005 Arid Meteorology 23 10 (in Chinese) [何金海, 刘芸芸, 常越 2005 干旱气象 23 10]
[9] Hu R J, Ma H, Fan Z L, Yang Q, Wu S F, Huang Y Y 2002 J. Natural Resources 17 22 (in Chinese) [胡汝骥, 马虹, 樊自立, 杨青, 吴素芬, 黄玉英 2002 自然资源学报 17 22]
[10] Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Li D L,Zhang G W, Ding Y J, Hu R J, Kang R S 2003 Quaternary Sciences 23 152 (in Chinese) [施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 张国威, 丁永建, 胡汝骥, 康尔泗 2003 第四纪研究 23 152]
[11] Dai X G, Ren Y Y, Chen H W 2007 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 65 1002 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 任宜勇, 陈洪武 2007 气象学报 65 1002]
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[14] Zhao B K, Cai C X, Yang L M, Wang H 2006 J. Glaciology and Geocryology 28 434 (in Chinese) [赵兵科, 蔡承侠, 杨莲梅 王慧 2006 冰川冻土 28 434]
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[16] Huntington T G 2006 J. Hydrology 319 83
[17] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hu J G 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 8107 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 王启光, 胡经国 2009 物理学报 58 8107]
[18] Yang LM 2003 J. Geography 58 577 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅 2003 地理学报 58 577]
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[20] Lorenz E N 1976 The Nature and Theory of Atmospheric General Circulation (Beijing: Chinese Academic Press) (in Chinese), p22-84 [洛伦茨 1976 大气环流的性质和理论 (北京: 科学出版社) 第22—84页]
[21] Peixoto J P, Oort A H 1992 Physics of Climate (New York: Springer Verlag Inc) 61-69
[22] Beck C, Grieser J, Rudolf B 2005 DWD, Klimastatusbericht 2004 181
[23] Uppala S M, Kallberg P W, Simmons A J, Andrae U, Bechtold V da Costa, Fiorino M, Gibson J K, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G A, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan P, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M A, Beljaars A C M, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, HAlm E, Hoskins B J, Isaksen L, Janssen P A E M, McNally A P, Mahfouf J-F, Jenne R, Morcrette J-J, Rayner N A, Saunders R W, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K E, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J 2005 J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131 2961
[24] Hoskins B, Pearce R 1983 Large-scale dynamical processes in the atmosphere (London: Academic Press) 201-230
[25] Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Progress in Natural Science 17 42
[26] Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 J Geophysics 54 2477 (in Chinese) [张凯静, 戴新刚, 汪萍 2011 地球物理学报 54 2477]
[27] Wang H J 2010 Advances in Geosciences 25 563 (in Chinese) [王会军 2010 地球科学进展 25 563]
[28] Dai X G, Wang P 2010 Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 3 45
[29] Wang X R, Xu X D, Miao Q J 2003 Climate and Environmental Research 8 35 (in Chinese) [王秀荣, 徐祥德, 苗秋菊 2003 气候与环境研究 8 35]
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[1] Fu C and Wang Q 1991 Science China B 666 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1991 中国科学(B) 666]
[2] Mann M, Amman C, Bradley R, Briffa K, J ones P, Osborn T, Crowley T, Hughes M, Oppenheimer M, Overpeck J, Rutherford S, Trenberth K, Wigley T 2003 EOS 84 256
[3] Wan S, Wang L, Feng G L, He W, Wang C and Zhou G 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 5083 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 王令, 封国林, 何文平, 汪婵娟, 周国华 2009 物理学报 58 5083]
[4] Dai X G, Wang P, Chou J F 2004 Chinese Science Bulletin 48 2730
[5] Zheng B, Gu D J, Lin A L, Li C H 2007 Chin. Phys. 16 1472
[6] Wang G L, Anastasios A Tsonis 2009 Chinese Physics B 18 5091
[7] Dai X G, Wang P Zhang P Q, Chou J F 2004 Progress in Natural Science 14 598
[8] He J H, Liu Y Y, Chang Y 2005 Arid Meteorology 23 10 (in Chinese) [何金海, 刘芸芸, 常越 2005 干旱气象 23 10]
[9] Hu R J, Ma H, Fan Z L, Yang Q, Wu S F, Huang Y Y 2002 J. Natural Resources 17 22 (in Chinese) [胡汝骥, 马虹, 樊自立, 杨青, 吴素芬, 黄玉英 2002 自然资源学报 17 22]
[10] Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Li D L,Zhang G W, Ding Y J, Hu R J, Kang R S 2003 Quaternary Sciences 23 152 (in Chinese) [施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 张国威, 丁永建, 胡汝骥, 康尔泗 2003 第四纪研究 23 152]
[11] Dai X G, Ren Y Y, Chen H W 2007 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 65 1002 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 任宜勇, 陈洪武 2007 气象学报 65 1002]
[12] Chen F, Huang X, Yang M 2006 Quaternary Sciences 26 881 (in Chinese) [陈发虎, 黄小忠, 杨美临 2006 第四纪研究 26 881]
[13] Chen D D, Dai Y J 2009 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 33 1247 (in Chinese) [陈冬冬, 戴永久 2009 大气科学 33 1247]
[14] Zhao B K, Cai C X, Yang L M, Wang H 2006 J. Glaciology and Geocryology 28 434 (in Chinese) [赵兵科, 蔡承侠, 杨莲梅 王慧 2006 冰川冻土 28 434]
[15] Yang L M, Shi Y G, Yang H 2010 J. App. Meteor. 21 491 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅, 史玉光, 汤浩 2010 应用气象学报 21 491]
[16] Huntington T G 2006 J. Hydrology 319 83
[17] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hu J G 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 8107 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 王启光, 胡经国 2009 物理学报 58 8107]
[18] Yang LM 2003 J. Geography 58 577 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅 2003 地理学报 58 577]
[19] Yang L M, Yang T, Jia L H, Chang T 2005 J. Glaciology and Geocryology 27 389 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅, 杨涛, 贾丽红, 常涛 2005 冰川冻土 27 389]
[20] Lorenz E N 1976 The Nature and Theory of Atmospheric General Circulation (Beijing: Chinese Academic Press) (in Chinese), p22-84 [洛伦茨 1976 大气环流的性质和理论 (北京: 科学出版社) 第22—84页]
[21] Peixoto J P, Oort A H 1992 Physics of Climate (New York: Springer Verlag Inc) 61-69
[22] Beck C, Grieser J, Rudolf B 2005 DWD, Klimastatusbericht 2004 181
[23] Uppala S M, Kallberg P W, Simmons A J, Andrae U, Bechtold V da Costa, Fiorino M, Gibson J K, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G A, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan P, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M A, Beljaars A C M, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, HAlm E, Hoskins B J, Isaksen L, Janssen P A E M, McNally A P, Mahfouf J-F, Jenne R, Morcrette J-J, Rayner N A, Saunders R W, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K E, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J 2005 J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131 2961
[24] Hoskins B, Pearce R 1983 Large-scale dynamical processes in the atmosphere (London: Academic Press) 201-230
[25] Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Progress in Natural Science 17 42
[26] Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 J Geophysics 54 2477 (in Chinese) [张凯静, 戴新刚, 汪萍 2011 地球物理学报 54 2477]
[27] Wang H J 2010 Advances in Geosciences 25 563 (in Chinese) [王会军 2010 地球科学进展 25 563]
[28] Dai X G, Wang P 2010 Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 3 45
[29] Wang X R, Xu X D, Miao Q J 2003 Climate and Environmental Research 8 35 (in Chinese) [王秀荣, 徐祥德, 苗秋菊 2003 气候与环境研究 8 35]
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