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为研究地球自转速率变化的非线性特性，结合自适应噪声完备经验模态分解、定量递归分析和Grassberger-Procaccia算法，从周期、混沌和分形多角度对1962年1月1日至2023年12月31日反映地球自转速率变化的日长变化（length of day，ΔLOD）观测序列的非线性特性进行全面分析，并着重对比分析扣除周期成分或混沌成分前后ΔLOD特性是否存在明显区别。主要结论如下：1）ΔLOD时间序列由趋势成分、周期成分和混沌成分构成，具有明显的多时间尺度、混沌动力学特性和分形结构；2）扣除混沌成分后的时间序列周期与原始ΔLOD时间序列的周期完全相同；3）原始ΔLOD时间序列和其扣除趋势成分和周期成分后的时间序列的混沌特性无显著性差异，但前者分形结构的复杂性相对更强。To study the nonlinear characteristics of changes in the Earth's rotation rate, a comprehensive analysis of the nonlinear characteristics of the length of day (ΔLOD) observations reflecting changes in the Earth's rotation rate was conducted from multiple perspectives, including periodicity, chaos, and fractal, using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), recursive quantitative analysis (RAQ), and Grassberger-Procaccia (GP) algorithms. The long-term high-accuracy ΔLOD observations from January 1, 1962 to December 31, 2023 were used as dataset published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS) 14C04 series for fulfilling the comprehensive analysis and then achieve a reliable analyzed results. In the presented work, the emphasis was placed on comparing and analyzing whether there were significant differences in the ΔLOD characteristics before and after deducting the periodic or chaotic components of ΔLOD time series. The main conclusions are as follows. 1) The ΔLOD time series consists of the well-know trend components and many periodic components as well as chaotic components, and can therefore be characterized by obvious multi timescales, chaotic dynamics characteristics, and fractal structure. The characteristics were not noticed in previous research. 2) The period of the ΔLOD time series after deducting the chaotic components is exactly the same as the period of the original ΔLOD time series, implying that the chaotic components have no effects on reconstruction and analysis of the periodic components. 3) There is no significant difference in the chaotic characteristics between the original ΔLOD time series and its time series after deducting trend and periodic components, but the complexity of the fractal structure of the former is relatively stronger. Not only can this work provide a valuable reference to study the mechanism for changes in the Earth's rotation rate, but also model such rotation changes and then predict the chances in different timescales.
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Keywords:
- Earth’s rotation /
- period /
- chaos /
- fractal
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