近60年新疆降水趋势与波动机制分析

戴新刚; 汪萍; 张凯静

doi:10.7498/aps.62.129201

摘要

用小波多尺度分析和回归等方法研究了近60年新疆降水记录的波动与趋势特征, 结果发现21世纪头十年降水亦然保持增加趋势, 但春、夏降水已呈弱的非线性下降趋势, 秋、冬季节降水增加趋势明显. 这可能与气候暖化的季节不均匀性有关. 年降水量的振荡与北大西洋涛动(NAO)关系密切, 二者约80%的方差都集中在年际尺度和多年代尺度成分两个带上, 年际变化之间呈显著负相关关系. NAO的多年代尺度成分位相超前降水10年左右, 而大西洋海温的多年代尺度涛动与之相差5年, 后者与降水的关联更为密切. "极差"分析表明, 对应于NAO的极端正或负位相事件, 下游的降水和水汽环境明显不同. 在NAO极端负位相年, 中亚和新疆降水都明显增加, 来自欧洲南部的水汽输送和中纬度瞬变涡动水汽输送均偏强, 中亚大气可降水量上升, 冷空气路径偏西, 瞬变天气系统易得到西南水汽输送带的配合, 水汽辐合增强, 有利于新疆和中亚的降水. 反之, 西风带水汽输送偏弱, 天气过程偏少, 降水量偏小, 易发生干旱. 因此, NAO的异常是新疆和中亚降水年际波动的主要原因之一.

关键词:

Abstract

This paper focuses on the mechanism of the trend and oscillation in precipitation records in northwestern China over the past 60 years. The results from regression and orthogonal wavelet decomposition show a clearly ascending in annual precipitation since 2000, which is contributed mostly by significant increase in autumn and winter precipitations, while almost no trend can be identified in spring and summer time, which shows a weak descending in non-linear form. This may be in connection with different warming rates in seasons. There is a significant anti-correlation between the precipitation and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on the inter-annual scale. About 80% of their variances concentrate on inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The multi-decadal components of NAO index have a phase leading about 10 years to corresponding precipitation, about 4-5 years leg for AMO. Hence, NAO index can be used as an indicator for inter-decadal change of the precipitation. Other results from combination-difference analysis show that the NAO in extreme negative phase could lead to the precipitation increase in central Asia and northwestern China, owing to increase in eastward water-vapor transport from south Europe to Northwestern China, which causes an increase in column water vapor content in the above areas, and meanwhile the transient eddy activity becomes intensified in the areas or north with a further south route moving from Europe, Central Asia throughout northwestern China. On the contrary, a dry climate might appear in the areas when meet extreme positive phase of NAO. Thus, NAO's oscillation is one of the most important mechanisms for inter-annual change in precipitation of northwestern China.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所, 东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029;

2.
中国气象科学研究院, 中国气象局, 北京 100081;

3.
青岛市气象局, 青岛 266003

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号: 40775048, 41075058)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号: 2013CB430201)和公益性行业科技专项(批准号: GYHY201106016)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
Qingdao Meteorological Agency, Qingdao 266003, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40775048, 41075058), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430201), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

参考文献

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[34]	Daubechies I 1988 Pure Appl. Math. 41 909
[35]	Fan K, Wang H J 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 974
[36]	Bretherton C S, Widmann M, Dymnikov V P , Wallace J M, Bladé I 1999 J. Climate 12 1990
[37]	Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, Giorgi F 2012 Chin. Sci. Bull. 57 374 (in Chinese) [高学杰, 石英, 张冬峰, Giorgi F 2012 科学通报 57 374]
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施引文献

[1]	Tao S, Chen L X 1987 Monsoon Meteorology (New York: Oxford University Press) pp60-92
[2]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 119201
[3]	Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 Chin. J. Geophy. Res. 54 870
[4]	Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Prog. Natur. Sci. 17 42
[5]	Chen F H, Huang X Z, Yang M L 2006 Quart. Sci. 26 881 (in Chinese) [陈发虎, 黄小忠, 杨美临 2006 第四纪研究 26 881]
[6]	Han J P, Wang H J 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. Res. 50 1666 (in Chinese) [韩晋平, 王会军 2007 地球物理学报 50 1666]
[7]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang P Q, Chou J F 2003 Prog. Natur. Sci. 14 598
[8]	Zhang L B, Feng G L, Guo L N, Shi N 2006 J. Nanjing Institute Meteor 29 1 (in Chinese) [张立波, 封国林, 郭利娜, 施能 2006 南京气象学院学报 29 1]
[9]	Wang H J 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 376
[10]	Dai X G, Ren Y Y, Chen H W 2007 Acta Meteor Sin. 65 1002 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 任宜勇, 陈洪武 2007 气象学报 65 1002]
[11]	Liu H W, Ding Y H 2011 J. Appl. Meteor. 22 129 (in Chinese) [刘海文, 丁一汇 2011 应用气象学报 22 129]
[12]	Ma Z G 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 1199 (in Chinese) [马柱国 2007 科学通报 52 1199]
[13]	Ye D Z, Fu C B, Ji J J, Dong W J, Lü J H, Wen G, Yan X D 2001 Adv. Geos. 16 453 (in Chinese) [叶笃正, 符淙斌, 季劲钧, 董文杰, 吕建华, 温刚, 延晓冬 2001 地球科学进展 16 453]
[14]	Yang L M, Zhang Q Y 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 32 1187 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅, 张庆云 2008 大气科学 32 1187]
[15]	Dai X G, Zhang K J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 张凯静 2012 物理学报 61 199201]
[16]	Ambaum M H P, Hoskins B J, Stephenson D B 2001 J. Clim. 14 3495
[17]	Wallace J M 2000 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 126 791
[18]	Li C Y, Gu W 2010 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 34 865 (in Chinese) [李崇银顾薇 2010大气科学 34 865]
[19]	Ji M X, Huang J P, Wang S W, Wang X, Zheng Z H, Ge J M 2008 Plateau Meteor 27 415 (in Chinese) [季明霞, 黄建平, 王绍武, 王鑫, 郑志海, 葛觐铭 2008 高原气象 27 415]
[20]	Luo D, Gong T, Diao Y 2007 J. Atmos. Sci. 64 3
[21]	Luo D H, Diao Y, Feldstein S B 2010 J. Atmos. Sci. 68 577
[22]	Amir S, Huang J P, Higuchi K 2001 Int. J. Clim. 21 355
[23]	Sun J Q, Wang H J 2012 J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08110
[24]	Fu C B, Zeng Z M 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 1512 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 曾昭美 2005 科学通报 50 1512]
[25]	Lucht W, Prentice I C, Myneni R B, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Cramer W, Bousquet P, Buermann W, Smith B 2002 Science 296 1687
[26]	Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 doi: 10.1029/2007GL0297
[27]	Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 2477 (in Chinese) [张凯静, 戴新刚, 汪萍 2011 地球物理学报 54 2477]
[28]	Li J, Wang J 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 661
[29]	Enfield D B, Mestas-Nunez A M, Trimble P J 2001 Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 2077
[30]	Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C, Kaplan A 2003 J. Geophys. Res. 108 4407
[31]	Barnett T P, Pierce D W, Latif M, Dommenget D, Saravanan R 1999 Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 615
[32]	Uppala S M, Kållberg P W, Simmons A J, Andrae U, Bechtold V D C, Fiorino M, Gibson J K, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G A, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan P, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M A, Beljaars A C M, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, HAlm E, Hoskins B J, Isaksen L, Janssen P A E M, McNally A P, Mahfouf J F, Jenne R, Morcrette J J, Rayner N A, Saunders R W, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K E, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J 2005 J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131 2961
[33]	Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B 2013 Theor. Appl. Climatology doi 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
[34]	Daubechies I 1988 Pure Appl. Math. 41 909
[35]	Fan K, Wang H J 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 974
[36]	Bretherton C S, Widmann M, Dymnikov V P , Wallace J M, Bladé I 1999 J. Climate 12 1990
[37]	Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, Giorgi F 2012 Chin. Sci. Bull. 57 374 (in Chinese) [高学杰, 石英, 张冬峰, Giorgi F 2012 科学通报 57 374]
[38]	Dong B, Sutton R T, Woollings T 2011 Clim. Dyn. 37 1621
[39]	Zuo J Q, Li W J, Ren H L, Chen L J 2012 Chin. J. Geophys. 55 384 (in Chinese) [左金清, 李维京, 任宏利, 陈丽娟 2012地球物理学报 55 384]
[40]	Peixoto J P, Oort A H (Translated by Wu G X et al) 1995 Physics of Climate (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p12 (in Chinese) [Peixoto J P, Oort A H著 (吴国雄等译) 1995 气候物理学 (北京: 气象出版社) 第12页]

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