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为了解决目前气象业务中由数字化雷达系统提供的强冰雹指数对强冰雹空报率过高的问题, 依据概念模型对强冰雹回波单体特点的描述, 设计并实现了"悬垂度" 等多个特征提取算法, 为了校验这些特征以及传统的强冰雹指数是否能从各自的角度突显强冰雹单体自身特质, 将较易与其混淆的短时强降水单体作反例进行统计校验, 结果表明它们在两类样本之间的差异是显著的. 以此为基础, 选用基于径向基核函数的非线性支持向量机得到强冰雹识别模型, 并在一种尺度变换的基础上, 将待测样本远离最优分类超平面的相对程度定义为新冰雹指数.实验表明, 本文方法较目前业务上普遍使用的冰雹指数法具有更高的击中率, 同时空报率大大降低.There are always high false alarm ratios when warning against the severe hail with the severe hail index (SHI) which is supplied by digital weather radar system. To solve this problem, the extraction algorithm with several novel features, such as "overhang", is designed and realized, and these features can describe the severe hail conceptual model from different aspects. Then we take short-time heavy rainfall cells which are easy to be confused with severe hail cells as counter examples to perform statistic analysis for these features and the SHI. Test results show that they have more significant difference between two kinds of samples and hence each of them can reflect one aspect characteristic of severe hail cells. Then a severe hail recognition model that is the Support Vector Machine with radial primary kernel function is learned. Finally, the normalized distance between the sample to be recognized and the optimal separating hyper-plane is determined as a new SHI for warning against the severe hail. Experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper makes severe hail hit ratio higher than the SHI being used and the false alarm ratio is reduced substantially.
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Keywords:
- severe hail recognition /
- overhang feature of storm cell /
- significant difference feature /
- support vector machine
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[2] Serafin R J, Wilson J W 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 81 501
[3] Holleman I, Wessels H R A, Onvlee J R A, Barlag S J M 2000 Phys. Chem. Earth B-Hydrol. Oceans Atmos. 25 1293
[4] Lopez L, Sanchez J L 2009 Atmos. Res. 93 358
[5] Baeck M L, Smith J A 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 416
[6] Edwards R, Thompson R L 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 277
[7] Lemon L R 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 327
[8] Doviak R J, Bringi V, Ryzhkov A, Zahrai A, Zrnic D 2000 J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 17 257
[9] Liang Q Q, Lin L X 2008 Meteorol. Sci. Technol. 2 150 (in Chinese) [梁巧倩, 林良勋 2008 气象科技 2 150]
[10] Zhang G C 2011 Strong Convection Weather Analysis and Forecasting (1st Ed.) (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p186 (in Chinese) [章国材 2011 强对流天气分析与预报 (第一版) (北京: 气象出版社) 第186页]
[11] Zhou Y F, Zhu Y J 2007 J. Anhui Agricult. Sci. 35 9637 (in Chinese) [周叶芳, 朱拥军 2007 安徽农业科学 35 9637]
[12] Witt A, Eilts M D, Stumpf G J, Johnson J T, Mitchell E D, Thomas K W 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 286
[13] Lenning E, Fuelberg H E, Watson W I 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 1029
[14] Zhang J S, Dang J L, Li H C 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 67 (in Chinese) [张家树, 党建亮, 李恒超 2007 物理学报 56 67]
[15] Wang F F, Zhang Y R 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 084101 (in Chinese) [王芳芳, 张业荣 2012 物理学报 61 084101]
[16] Cai J W, Hu S S, Tao H F 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6820 (in Chinese) [蔡俊伟, 胡寿松, 陶洪峰 2007 物理学报 56 6820]
[17] Cui W Z, Zhu C C, Bao W X, Liu J H 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 3009 (in Chinese) [崔万照, 朱长纯, 保文星, 刘君华 2005 物理学报 54 3009]
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[1] Makitov V 2007 Atmo. Res. 83 380
[2] Serafin R J, Wilson J W 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 81 501
[3] Holleman I, Wessels H R A, Onvlee J R A, Barlag S J M 2000 Phys. Chem. Earth B-Hydrol. Oceans Atmos. 25 1293
[4] Lopez L, Sanchez J L 2009 Atmos. Res. 93 358
[5] Baeck M L, Smith J A 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 416
[6] Edwards R, Thompson R L 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 277
[7] Lemon L R 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 327
[8] Doviak R J, Bringi V, Ryzhkov A, Zahrai A, Zrnic D 2000 J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 17 257
[9] Liang Q Q, Lin L X 2008 Meteorol. Sci. Technol. 2 150 (in Chinese) [梁巧倩, 林良勋 2008 气象科技 2 150]
[10] Zhang G C 2011 Strong Convection Weather Analysis and Forecasting (1st Ed.) (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p186 (in Chinese) [章国材 2011 强对流天气分析与预报 (第一版) (北京: 气象出版社) 第186页]
[11] Zhou Y F, Zhu Y J 2007 J. Anhui Agricult. Sci. 35 9637 (in Chinese) [周叶芳, 朱拥军 2007 安徽农业科学 35 9637]
[12] Witt A, Eilts M D, Stumpf G J, Johnson J T, Mitchell E D, Thomas K W 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 286
[13] Lenning E, Fuelberg H E, Watson W I 1998 Weather Forecast. 13 1029
[14] Zhang J S, Dang J L, Li H C 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 67 (in Chinese) [张家树, 党建亮, 李恒超 2007 物理学报 56 67]
[15] Wang F F, Zhang Y R 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 084101 (in Chinese) [王芳芳, 张业荣 2012 物理学报 61 084101]
[16] Cai J W, Hu S S, Tao H F 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6820 (in Chinese) [蔡俊伟, 胡寿松, 陶洪峰 2007 物理学报 56 6820]
[17] Cui W Z, Zhu C C, Bao W X, Liu J H 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 3009 (in Chinese) [崔万照, 朱长纯, 保文星, 刘君华 2005 物理学报 54 3009]
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