基于长程相关性特征的北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国气温的模拟性能评估

赵珊珊; 何文平

doi:10.7498/aps.63.209201

摘要

传统对数值模式模拟效果的评估主要是基于均值、趋势、概率密度分布、极值等方面的特征比较模拟要素与观测值的差异或是通过分析模拟值与观测值之间的相关性来定量判断. 这类评估方法主要考虑了模式模拟结果与观测资料在统计上的差异，缺乏对两者在动力学特征上的比较. 鉴于此，本文基于气象观测资料演变过程中所展现的长程相关性特征，利用去趋势波动分析方法对观测资料和模式模拟数据进行标度分析，研究模式模拟结果是否具有类似于观测资料中的长程相关性特征，进而通过比较观测资料和模式模拟结果的标度指数，从大气演变的内在动力学特征上对模式模拟性能进行评估. 本文对北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国地表气温的模拟性能进行了评估，结果表明，该模式能够较好地反映出中国区域气温要素的长程相关性特征，对东北、西北中东部、江淮、江南东部等地模拟效果较好，但对于青藏高原地区及西北大部、华北、黄淮等地的模拟效果相对较差，其中对青藏高原地区和西北西部的模拟效果最差.

关键词:

Abstract

The traditional evaluation of simulation perfomance for numerical model is based on the differences in average, trend, probability density distribution, extreme value, variance and self-correlation between observational data and the simulated data by numerical model. These evaluation methods mainly depend on the comparison of statistical difference between the simulation and observation, but ignore the comparison in the dynamical characteristics of climate system. In view of this, in the present paper we use detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to analyze the scaling characteristics of daily temperature from observational data and the corresponding simulated data by climate model, and investigate whether the long-range correlation of meteorological elements can exist in the simulated data of climate model. If so, we can assess the performance of climate model based on the comparison of scaling index between the observational data and the simulated data. As an example, the performances of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1(m)) model, including simulated daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature, are assessed by using DFA. The results indicate that the long-range correlation characteristics of temperature in China can be simulated by BCC_CSM1.1(m). But the simulation errors are relatively large in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, most West China, North China, and Huanghuai district. Thereinto, and the performance of BCC_CSM1.1(m) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western West China is worst in China.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

赵珊珊^{1 2},
何文平¹

1.
国家气候中心, 北京 100081;

2.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044

基金项目: 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划（批准号：2012CB955902）、国家自然科学基金（批准号：41275074，41175067）和公益性行业（气象）科研专项（批准号：GYHY201106015，GYHY201106016）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

Zhao Shan-Shan^{1 2},
He Wen-Ping¹

1.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;

2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275074, 41175067), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201106015, GYHY201106016).

参考文献

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[4]	Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5]	Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6]	Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
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[11]	Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
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[13]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[14]	Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15]	Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 物理学报 60 109203]
[18]	Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19]	Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20]	Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23]	Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24]	Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25]	Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26]	He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]

施引文献

[1]	Shi Y J, Ren Y L, Wang S G, Shang K Z, Li X, Zhou G L 2012 Plateau Meteorol. 31 1257 (in Chinese ) [石彦君, 任余龙, 王式功, 尚可政, 李旭, 周甘霖 2012 高原气象 31 1257]
[2]	Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 250 (in Chinese) [姚遥, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 250]
[3]	Gao F, Xin X G, Wu T W 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 1165 (in Chinese) [高峰, 辛晓歌, 吴统文 2012 大气科学 36 1165]
[4]	Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5]	Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6]	Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[7]	Bartos I, Jánosi I M 2006 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13 571
[8]	Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球物理学报 50 420]
[9]	Liu S D, Rong P P, Chen J 2000 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 58 111 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 荣平平, 陈炯 2000 气象学报 58 111]
[10]	Cheng J, She Z S, Liang S, Liu S D 2003 J. Nanjing Instit. Meteorol. 26 24 (in Chinese) [陈炯, 佘振苏, 梁爽, 刘式达 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 24]
[11]	Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
[12]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 23 104]
[13]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 物理学报 52 2347]
[14]	Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15]	Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 物理学报 60 109203]
[18]	Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19]	Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20]	Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23]	Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24]	Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25]	Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26]	He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]

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