时间滞后对全球温度场关联性的影响

支蓉; 龚志强; 王启光; 熊开国

doi:10.7498/aps.60.089202

摘要

基于美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心以及欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的再分析资料,构建了考虑时间滞后情况下的全球温度场关联矩阵,分析了时间滞后对全球温度场关联性时空特征的影响.结果表明:随着滞后时间的增加,全球温度场的关联性总体呈逐渐减弱的趋势,但对应不同的滞后时间其规律也不同,在滞后1—30 d的情况下,可根据全球平均关联系数Cglb的下降

关键词:

温度场 /
关联矩阵 /
时间滞后

With time delay under consideration, temperature correlation matrixes are constructed based on the reanalysis of temperature data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Results indicate that the correlation of global temperature decreases with lag time, and the rate is dependent on time lag. We divide the lag time (1—30 d) into three segments, i.e., 1—7 d, 8—20 d and 21—30 d according to the decrease rate of global average correlation coefficient Cglb. When the lag time is in a specific interval (8—20 d), Cglb is unstable, which may explain the difficulty in long range weather forecast of 10—30 d. The spatial distribution of the global temperature correlation keeps stable for different lag times, while the numerical change shows zonal distribution on the whole, and that the most of Asia and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific show countertrend to other parts of similar latitudes.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

(1)兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000; (2)中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; (3)中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081;兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:40930952,40875040)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2010CB950504)和国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC29B01)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

(1)College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; (2)Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; (3)Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

参考文献

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Lorenz E N 1993 The Essence of Chaos (Washington: University of Washington Press) p227
[3]	Chou J F 2002 Nonlinear and Complexity in Atmosphere Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p131 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2002 大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京:气象出版社) 第131页]
[4]	Zhou X J 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 806 (in Chinese) [周秀骥 2005 气象学报 63 806]
[5]	Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
[6]	Lorenz E N 1969 Tellus 21 289
[7]	Smagorinsky J 1969 Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 50 286
[8]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteor. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese) [陈明行、纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[9]	Simmons A J, Mureau R, Petroliagis T 1995 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 121 1739
[10]	Wang H J, Chen L J, Li W J, Zhang P Q, Liu L L 2007 Acta Meteor. Sin. 65 725 (in Chinese) [王会军、陈丽娟、李维京、张培群、刘绿柳 2007 气象学报 65 725]
[11]	Fraedrich K 1986 J. Atmos. Sci. 43 419
[12]	Fraedrich K 1987 J. Atmos. Sci. 44 722
[13]	Keppenne C L, Nicolis C 1989 J. Atmos. Sci. 46 2356
[14]	Wallace J M, Gutzler D S 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 784
[15]	Li C Y, Zhou W, Jia X L, Wang X 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 964
[16]	Yu J H, Rong S Y, Ren J 2005 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 25 579 (in Chinese) [余锦华、荣淑艳、任健 2005 气象科学 25 579]
[17]	Yan H M, Xiao Z N 2001 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 21 54 (in Chinese) [晏红明、肖子牛 2001气象科学 21 54]
[18]	Xie F Y, He J H 2003 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 26 308 (in Chinese) [谢付莹、何金海2003 南京气象学院学报26 308]
[19]	Guhr T, Muller-Groeling A, Weidenmuller H A 1998 Phys. Rep. 299 189
[20]	Efetov K B 1997 Supersymmetry in Disorder and Chaos (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
[21]	Santhanam M S, Patra P K 2001 Phys. Rev. E 64 016102
[22]	Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强、周磊、支蓉、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5351]
[23]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2113 (in Chinese) [支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 物理学报 58 2113]
[24]	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6651 (in Chinese) [王晓娟、龚志强、周磊、支蓉 2009 物理学报 58 6651]
[25]	Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng A X, Gong Z Q 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 6689 (in Chinese) [周磊、支蓉、冯爱霞、龚志强 2010 物理学报 59 6689]
[26]	Huang G 2006 Clim. Envir. Res. 11 310 (in Chinese) [黄刚 2006气候与环境研究 11 310]
[27]	Inoue T, Matsumoto J 2004 J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn. 82 951
[28]	Josey S A 2001 J. Climate 14 1780
[29]	Murirhead R J 1982 Aspects of Multivariate Statistical Theory (New York: Wiley) p308

施引文献

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Lorenz E N 1993 The Essence of Chaos (Washington: University of Washington Press) p227
[3]	Chou J F 2002 Nonlinear and Complexity in Atmosphere Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p131 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2002 大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京:气象出版社) 第131页]
[4]	Zhou X J 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 806 (in Chinese) [周秀骥 2005 气象学报 63 806]
[5]	Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
[6]	Lorenz E N 1969 Tellus 21 289
[7]	Smagorinsky J 1969 Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 50 286
[8]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteor. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese) [陈明行、纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[9]	Simmons A J, Mureau R, Petroliagis T 1995 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 121 1739
[10]	Wang H J, Chen L J, Li W J, Zhang P Q, Liu L L 2007 Acta Meteor. Sin. 65 725 (in Chinese) [王会军、陈丽娟、李维京、张培群、刘绿柳 2007 气象学报 65 725]
[11]	Fraedrich K 1986 J. Atmos. Sci. 43 419
[12]	Fraedrich K 1987 J. Atmos. Sci. 44 722
[13]	Keppenne C L, Nicolis C 1989 J. Atmos. Sci. 46 2356
[14]	Wallace J M, Gutzler D S 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 784
[15]	Li C Y, Zhou W, Jia X L, Wang X 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 964
[16]	Yu J H, Rong S Y, Ren J 2005 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 25 579 (in Chinese) [余锦华、荣淑艳、任健 2005 气象科学 25 579]
[17]	Yan H M, Xiao Z N 2001 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 21 54 (in Chinese) [晏红明、肖子牛 2001气象科学 21 54]
[18]	Xie F Y, He J H 2003 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 26 308 (in Chinese) [谢付莹、何金海2003 南京气象学院学报26 308]
[19]	Guhr T, Muller-Groeling A, Weidenmuller H A 1998 Phys. Rep. 299 189
[20]	Efetov K B 1997 Supersymmetry in Disorder and Chaos (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
[21]	Santhanam M S, Patra P K 2001 Phys. Rev. E 64 016102
[22]	Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强、周磊、支蓉、封国林 2008 物理学报 57 5351]
[23]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2113 (in Chinese) [支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 物理学报 58 2113]
[24]	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6651 (in Chinese) [王晓娟、龚志强、周磊、支蓉 2009 物理学报 58 6651]
[25]	Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng A X, Gong Z Q 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 6689 (in Chinese) [周磊、支蓉、冯爱霞、龚志强 2010 物理学报 59 6689]
[26]	Huang G 2006 Clim. Envir. Res. 11 310 (in Chinese) [黄刚 2006气候与环境研究 11 310]
[27]	Inoue T, Matsumoto J 2004 J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn. 82 951
[28]	Josey S A 2001 J. Climate 14 1780
[29]	Murirhead R J 1982 Aspects of Multivariate Statistical Theory (New York: Wiley) p308

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