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本文以地壳和地幔的基本构造和已有观测事实为依据, 运用颗粒物理原理,将地壳和地幔作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理, 重新认识地震孕育过程,前兆产生机制及规律,探求地震预测方法和途径. 主要结果是:建立了地壳与地幔构成和运动的颗粒模型; 提出了引发地震的大地构造力的形成机制, 以及地震前兆信息产生和传播规律; 说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联, 阐述了探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理; 用颗粒流动的阻塞-解阻塞转变原理解释了深源地震发生机制; 对以前难以理解的若干地震学现象进行了解释, 并讨论了地震的可预测性. 由于地壳和地幔的离散结构特征, 对于地震孕育的准静力学过程, 连续介质理论不再适用. 以颗粒物理原理研究地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测, 所获得的新认识与传统连续介质地震学观点有本质区别.To recognize the seismogenic process, mechanism and behavior of seismic precursors, as well as look for the ways of earthquake prediction the granular physics principle is applied based on the basic structure of the crust and mantle and existing experimental observations, where we treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters. Main outcomes are: A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established. A formation mechanism of the tectonic forces, which causes the earthquakes, and a model of propagation for precursive signals are proposed. Properties of the seismic precursive signal and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated, and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. In the paper the mechanism of palintectic earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained, and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed. Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle, the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismogenic process. In all in this paper, based on granular physics, we study the causes of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and earthquake prediction, and a new understanding, different from the traditional seismological point of view, is obtained.
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Keywords:
- granular matter /
- earthquake prediction /
- earthquake precursor /
- deep earthquake
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[103] -
[1] Chen Y T 2007 Seis. Geomag. Obser. Res. 28 1 (in Chinese) [陈运泰 2007 地震地磁观测与研究 28 1]
[2] [3] Shearer P M (translated by Chen Z L) 1999 Introduction to Seismology (New York: Cambridge University Press) [席勒P M著 (陈章立译) 2008 地震学引论 (北京:地震出版社)]
[4] [5] Chen Z L 2004 Introduction to the Base of Seismological Method for Earthquake Prediction (Beijing: Seismic Press) (in Chinese) [陈章立 2004 浅论地震预报地震学方法基础 (北京:地震出版社)]
[6] [7] Zhang G M, Fu Z X, Gui X T 2001 Introduction to Earthquake Prediction (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [张国民, 傅征祥, 桂燮泰 2001 地震预报引论 (北京: 科学出版社)]
[8] de Gennes P G. 1999 Rev. Mod. Phys. 71 S374
[9] [10] [11] Kadanoff L P 1999 Rev. Mod. Phys. 71 S435
[12] Lu K Q, Liu J X, 2004 Physics 33 629,713 (in Chinese) [陆坤权, 刘寄星 2004 物理 33 629,713]
[13] [14] Duran J 1999 Sands, Powders, and Grains, An Introduction to the Physics of Granular Materials (New York:Springer)
[15] [16] [17] Brace W F, Byerlee J D 1966 Sience 153 990
[18] [19] Burridge R, Knopoff L 1967 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 57 341
[20] [21] Agnolin I, Roux J N 2007 Phys. Rev. E 76 061304
[22] [23] Liu A J, Nagel S R 1998 Nature 396 21
[24] [25] Trappe V, Prasad V, Cipelletti L, Segre P N, Weitz D A 2001 Nature 411 772
[26] To K, Lai P Y, Pak H K 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 71
[27] [28] [29] Hou M Y, Chen W, Zhang T, Lu K Q, Chan C K 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 204301
[30] Zhu X H, Cai Y L 2006 Advance in Earth Sciences 21 496 (in Chinese) [朱晓华,蔡运龙 2006 地球科学进展 21 496]
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[36] Li Z W, Xu Y, Hao T Y, Liu J S, Zhang L 2006 Chin. J. Geophys. 49 707 (in Chinese) [李志伟, 胥颐, 郝天珧, 刘劲松, 张岭 2006 地球物理学报 49 707]
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[44] Dragert H, Wang K, James T S 2001 Science 292 1525
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[54] Zhang P Z, Xu X W, Wen X Z, Ran Y K 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1066 (in Chinese) [张培震,徐锡伟, 闻学泽, 冉勇康 2008 地球物理学报 51 1066]
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[58] Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Wang Q, Jiang Z H, Liu J X 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119101 (in Chinese) [陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 王强,姜泽辉, 刘寄星 2011 物理学报 60 119101]
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[64] Jiang J X, Yin G H, Wang Z H, Wang X G, Tang X Y 2004 Chin. J. Rock Mechan. Engin. 23 4072 (in Chinese) [蒋靖祥, 尹光华, 王在华, 王新刚, 唐小勇 2004 岩石力学与工程学报 23 4072]
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[80] Frohlish C 1989 Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 17 227
[81] [82] Green H W, Houston H 1995 Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 23 169
[83] [84] [85] Li G B 2005 Plateau Earthquake Research 17 33 (in Chinese) [李国斌 2005 高原地震 17 33]
[86] Che Y T, Gu Y Z, Yu J Z, Liu W Z 2002 Earthquake 22 106 (in Chinese) [车用太, 谷元珠, 鱼金子, 刘五洲 2002 地震 22 106]
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[90] [91] Xu S X 2006 Chin. Academy Engin. 8 14 (in Chinese) [许绍燮 2006 中国工程科学 8 14]
[92] [93] Zhang G M, Wang S Y, Li L, Zhang X D, Ma H S 2002 Chin. Sci. Bull. 47 663 (in Chinese) [张国民, 汪素云, 李丽, 张晓东, 马宏生 2002 科学通报 47 663]
[94] Bak P (translated by Li W, Cai M) 2001 How Nature Works (Wuhan: Central China Normal University Press) [巴克帕著 (李炜, 蔡勖译) 2001 大自然如何工作 (武汉:华中师范大学出版社)]
[95] [96] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2005 Earthquake Research in China 21 103 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2005 中国地震 21 103]
[97] [98] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2006 Earthquake Research in China 22 236 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2006 中国地震 22 236]
[99] [100] Wang Y Z, Shen Z K 2007 Earthquake Research in China 23 1 (in Chinese) [王阎昭, 沈正康 2007 中国地震 23 1]
[101] [102] Zhang G M, Ma H S, Wang H, Li L 2004 Sci. China D 34 591 (in Chinese) [张国民,马宏生,王辉, 李丽 2004 中国科学(D辑) 34 591]
[103]
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