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汶川地震后中国及邻区地震活动趋势——地震能量释放特征的“振荡类比”研究

胡卫建 尚红 刘惠娟 王夫运 李平林

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汶川地震后中国及邻区地震活动趋势——地震能量释放特征的“振荡类比”研究

胡卫建, 尚红, 刘惠娟, 王夫运, 李平林

The trend of seismic activities in China and adjacent regions after Wenchuan earthquake——Research of seismic energy release with “oscillation analogy”

Hu Wei-Jian, Sang Hong, Liu Hui-Juan, Wang Fu-Yun, Li Ping-Lin
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  • 根据欧亚地震带东段地质构造和地震活动特征,选取中国及邻区地震区域,对1897—2008年发生的824次震级Ms≥60地震的年度释放能量进行滤波和系统分析.结果显示,地震能量释放特征表现为周期性衰减振荡.通过振荡特征分析和计算,从理论上预测中国及邻区长期和中短期强震活动形势.计算结果表明,所选区域内大陆板块地震活跃时间应持续1537 a,如果从1897年开始,即到2050年结束.这一理论结果与中国两千多年历史地震资料分析结论一致,也为我国的地震活跃期持续150 a左右
    According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone, China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions, where earthquakes of Ms≥60 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008 The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy, we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium- and short- term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 1537 a, namely, 1897—2050 Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a, and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity, we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012, furthermore, the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021, and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently, the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050
    • 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重大计划(批准号:90814012)资助的课题.
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    [19]

    ]Lu Z Y 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland (Beijing: Seismology Press) pp34—49 (in Chinese) [ 陆忠远 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社)第34—49页]

    [20]

    ]Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)[ 李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25]

    [21]

    ]Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746

    [22]

    ]Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180

    [23]

    ]Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) [杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007物理学报 56 6143]

    [24]

    ]Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) [李红星、陶春辉 2009 物理学报 58 2836]

    [25]

    ]Du Q Z, Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) [杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 物理学报 53 2801 ]

    [26]

    ]Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study(Beijing: Seismology Press) pp1—63 (in Chinese) [丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页]

  • [1]

    [1]Teng J W, Bai D H, Yang H, Yan Y F, Zhang H S, Zhang Y Q, Ruan X M 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1385

    [2]

    [2]Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, Yao Z X 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1403

    [3]

    [3]Zhang Z, Wang Y, Chen Y, Houseman G A, Tian X, Wang E, Teng J 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 17310

    [4]

    [4]Hubbard J, Shaw J H 2009 Nature 458 194

    [5]

    [5]Guo L Q, Li Y X, Hu X K, Liu X 2009 Chin.J. Geophys. 52 531 (in Chinese) [郭良迁、李延兴、胡新康、刘峡 2009 地球物理学报 52 531]

    [6]

    [6] Wang Y P, Ma J, Li C Y 2007 Seismology and Geology 29 1(in Chinese) [汪一鹏、马瑾、李传友 2007 地震地質 29 1]

    [7]

    [7]Xu J R, Zhao Z X, Ishikawa Y 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 770 (in Chinese) [徐纪人、赵志新、石川有三 2008 地球物理学报 51 770]

    [8]

    [8]Parsons T, Ji C, Kirby E 2008 Nature 454 509

    [9]

    [9]Fu Z X, Ding X, Wang X Q 2006 Earthquake 26 35 (in Chinese) [傅征祥、丁香、王晓青 2006 地震 26 35]

    [10]

    ]Chen X Z 2007 Earthquake 27 41 (in Chinese) [陈学忠 2007 地震 27 41]

    [11]

    ]Su N Q 2003 Inland Earthquake 17 190 (in Chinese) [苏乃秦 2003 内陆地震 17 190]

    [12]

    ]Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Xu G L,Fan F T 1979 Seismology and Geology 1 11 (in Chinese) [邓起东、张裕明、许桂林、范福田 1979 地震地质 1 11]

    [13]

    ]Shi Z L, Huan W L, Lu S D 1982 Sci. China B 12 840(in Chinese)[时振梁、环文林、卢寿德 1982 中国科学B 12 840]

    [14]

    ]Shi Z L, Zhao R G, Wang S Z, Wang J X 1986 World Earthquake Catalog (1900—1980, Ms≥60) (Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House) pp236—269 (in Chinese) [时振梁、赵荣国、王淑贞、王敬贤 1986 世界地震目录(1900—1980,Ms≥60) (北京:地图出版社) 第236—269页]

    [15]

    ]Gu G X 1983 China Earthquake Catalog (B.C.1831—1979) (Beijing: Science Press)(in Chinese)[顾功叙 1983 中国地震目录 (北京:科学出版社)]

    [16]

    ]Ganse R A, Nelson J B 1988 BC2000—1979 Global Great Earthquake Catalog (Beijing: Seismology Press (in Chinese)) [甘斯R A、纳尔逊J B 1988 公元前2000年—公元1979年全球重大地震目录(中译本) (北京:地震出版社)]

    [17]

    ]Zhu C Z 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland (Beijing: Seismology Press)pp63—77 (in Chinese) [ 朱传镇 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第63—77页]

    [18]

    ]Wang L M 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland (Beijing: Seismology Press) pp114—124 (in Chinese) [汪良谋 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第114—124页]

    [19]

    ]Lu Z Y 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland (Beijing: Seismology Press) pp34—49 (in Chinese) [ 陆忠远 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社)第34—49页]

    [20]

    ]Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)[ 李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25]

    [21]

    ]Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746

    [22]

    ]Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180

    [23]

    ]Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) [杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007物理学报 56 6143]

    [24]

    ]Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) [李红星、陶春辉 2009 物理学报 58 2836]

    [25]

    ]Du Q Z, Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) [杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 物理学报 53 2801 ]

    [26]

    ]Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study(Beijing: Seismology Press) pp1—63 (in Chinese) [丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页]

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  • 收稿日期:  2009-07-23
  • 修回日期:  2010-01-13
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