-
近年来, 临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋向于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力. 本文基于临界慢化的理念, 着重研究不同噪声影响下, 气候突变前兆信号出现的时间; 对含有不同噪声的气温观测资料、太平洋年代际振荡指数以及阿留申低压强度资料进行处理, 研究突变的前兆信号. 以20世纪70年代末80年代初这次气候突变为例, 分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数. 结果表明, 临界慢化现象出现在具有不同信噪比的资料中, 这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个前兆信号, 并且噪声对气候突变前兆信号的检测结果影响较小, 从而论证了临界慢化现象检测突变前兆信号的可靠性, 为该方法在实际观测资料中的广泛应用提供了实验基础.In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in disclosing whether a complex dynamic tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of temperature and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the intensity of Aleutian low pressure, which have different noises are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in the late1970s-early 1980s as an example, then variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down will be calculated separately; the occurring time of precursory signal of abrupt climate change under the noises influence is studied. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appears in the data with different signal-to-noise ratios before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change and the noise has less influence on the test results for precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Accordingly, it demonstrates the reliability of critical slowing down phenomenon to test the precursory signals of abrupt climate change, which provides an experimental basis for the wide applications of the present method in real observation data.
-
Keywords:
- abrupt climate change /
- critical slowing down precursory signals /
- noise /
[1] Fu C B,Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2] Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumbert R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3] Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4] Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892］
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) pp5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第5–8页]
[7] Chou J F 1997 Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences 5 325 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1997 中国科学院院刊 5 325]
[8] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[9] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 24 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 24 2695]
[10] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]
[11] Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]
[12] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]
[13] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]
[14] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862]
[15] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴 琼, 张 文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264 ]
[16] He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]
[17] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[18] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 15 601
[19] Scheffer M, Bascompte J,William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[20] Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Lett. 9 311
[21] Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Lett. 11 450
[22] Yu L,Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象 (北京: 科学出版社)]
[23] Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球物理学报 54 1817]
[24] Overland J E, Adams J M, Bond N A 1999 J. Climate 12 1542
[25] Sun X J, Wang P X, Zhi H, Guo D 2011 Tran. Atmos. Sci. 34 74 (in Chinese)[孙晓娟, 王盘兴, 智海, 郭栋 2011 大气科学学报 34 74]
[26] Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 北京: 气象出版社第62–76页]
[27] Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[28] Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H 2008 P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[29] Zhao X C, Wu H B, He L 2008 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 31 819 (in Chinese) [赵晓川, 吴洪宝, 何浪 2008 南京气象学院学报 31 819]
[30] Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[31] Hou W, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 2663 (in Chinese) [侯威, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 2663]
[32] Guo Z H, Liao Q L, Li X 2005 Arid Land Geogr. 28 176 (in Chinese) [郭志海, 缪启龙, 李雄 2005 干旱区地理 28 176]
[33] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]
[34] Zeng H L, Gao X Q, Dai X G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 66 (in Chinese) [曾红玲, 高新全, 戴新刚 2002 高原气象 21 66]
[35] Wang L Q, Li C Y, Tan Y K,Yan D 2010 Plateau Meteor. 29 23 (in Chinese) [王力群, 李崇银, 谭言科, 严冬 2010 高原气象 29 23]
[36] Ren G C 1991 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 49 249 (in Chinese) [任广成 1991 气象学报 49 249]
-
[1] Fu C B,Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2] Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumbert R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3] Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4] Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892］
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) pp5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第5–8页]
[7] Chou J F 1997 Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences 5 325 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1997 中国科学院院刊 5 325]
[8] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[9] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 24 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 24 2695]
[10] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5494]
[11] Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 物理学报 54 5487]
[12] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 3180]
[13] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 物理学报 56 3619]
[14] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 物理学报 58 2862]
[15] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴 琼, 张 文, 成海英 2010 物理学报 59 8264 ]
[16] He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 物理学报 60 029203]
[17] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[18] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 15 601
[19] Scheffer M, Bascompte J,William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[20] Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Lett. 9 311
[21] Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Lett. 11 450
[22] Yu L,Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象 (北京: 科学出版社)]
[23] Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球物理学报 54 1817]
[24] Overland J E, Adams J M, Bond N A 1999 J. Climate 12 1542
[25] Sun X J, Wang P X, Zhi H, Guo D 2011 Tran. Atmos. Sci. 34 74 (in Chinese)[孙晓娟, 王盘兴, 智海, 郭栋 2011 大气科学学报 34 74]
[26] Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 北京: 气象出版社第62–76页]
[27] Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[28] Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H 2008 P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[29] Zhao X C, Wu H B, He L 2008 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 31 819 (in Chinese) [赵晓川, 吴洪宝, 何浪 2008 南京气象学院学报 31 819]
[30] Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[31] Hou W, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 2663 (in Chinese) [侯威, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 物理学报 55 2663]
[32] Guo Z H, Liao Q L, Li X 2005 Arid Land Geogr. 28 176 (in Chinese) [郭志海, 缪启龙, 李雄 2005 干旱区地理 28 176]
[33] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 物理学报 57 3920]
[34] Zeng H L, Gao X Q, Dai X G 2002 Plateau Meteor. 21 66 (in Chinese) [曾红玲, 高新全, 戴新刚 2002 高原气象 21 66]
[35] Wang L Q, Li C Y, Tan Y K,Yan D 2010 Plateau Meteor. 29 23 (in Chinese) [王力群, 李崇银, 谭言科, 严冬 2010 高原气象 29 23]
[36] Ren G C 1991 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 49 249 (in Chinese) [任广成 1991 气象学报 49 249]
计量
- 文章访问数: 9105
- PDF下载量: 809
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
